Awesome Conformal Prediction

My course 'Applied Conformal Prediction is now opened for enrollment on Maven 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 enroll into the next cohort here, register interest for upcoming cohorts and information here

My book 'Practical Guide to Applied Conformal Prediction: Learn and apply the best uncertainty frameworks to your industry applications' can be ordered on Amazon Amazon USA 🇺🇸, Amazon UK 🇬🇧, Amazon India 🇮🇳, Amazon Germany 🇩🇪, Amazon France 🇫🇷, Amazon Spain 🇪🇸, Amazon Canada 🇨🇦, Amazon Japan 🇯🇵 Amazon Brazil 🇧🇷 Amazon Australia 🇦🇺 Amazon Singapore 🇸🇬 Amazon Sweden 🇸🇪

The book has reached #1 in Amazon Hot New Releases in multiple categories: "Probability and Statistics", "Machine Theory", "Python Programming" 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Due to free tier limits of Slack, Slack for Awesome Conformal Prediction is in general application-only.

Fill the form to be considered for access. https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScuNkOz1jq-Qt1OJ8oxsDCLZMdn8TkQluHllxk_GodPC8-w_w/viewform

1-April-2024 update: Slack has been reopened temporarily (link valid for 30 days only, real names only as per LinkedIn)

Preference is given to Conformal Prediction researchers or practitioners who have published papers, articles, tutorials, code or made YouTube videos about Conformal Prediction.

Discover the Ultimate Conformal Prediction Resource: All-in-One and Expertly Curated 🌟 🌟 🌟 🌟 🌟

Explore the most extensive professionally curated collection on Conformal Prediction, featuring top-notch tutorials, videos, books, papers, articles, courses, websites, conferences, and open-source libraries in Python, R, and Julia. Uncover the hidden gems and master the art of Conformal Prediction with this all-encompassing guide. Experience the Pinnacle of Conformal Prediction Expertise: A Resource Crafted by a Pro.

This exceptional resource is the culmination of my PhD journey in Machine Learning, specializing in Conformal Prediction under the supervision of its creator, Prof. Vladimir Vovk. Since 2015, I have painstakingly gathered these invaluable resources, and upon completing my PhD (my thesis, "Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction," can be found in the "Theses" section), I am thrilled to share my expertise with the global machine learning community. Immerse yourself in a professionally curated collection that has been honed through years of dedication and experience.

Conformal Prediction goes back to Kolmogorov's notion of randomness described in two papers : 1) Andrei Kolmogorov (1968). "Logical basis for information theory and probability theory." IEEE Transactions on Information Theory IT-14:662-664 and 2) Andrei Kolmogorov (1983). "Combinatorial foundations of information theory and the calculus of probabilities." Russian Mathematical Surveys 38(4):29-4.

Conformal Prediction has transcended its niche status in just a few years, experiencing exponential growth thanks to the tireless efforts of renowned ambassadors like Prof. Larry Wasserman in academia. It has taken center stage with dedicated tracks at ICML2021 and ICML2022, as well as a captivating keynote address 'Conformal Prediction in 2022' at NeurIPS2022 by Professor Emmanuel Candes. Furthermore, the main conference on Conformal Prediction (COPA) has enjoyed a successful run for over 11 years. Join the vibrant community at the forefront of this rapidly evolving field.

Awesome Conformal Prediction takes pride in being cited within the highly acclaimed book on Machine Learning, "Probabilistic Machine Learning: Advanced Topics" by leading Google research scientist and best-selling Machine Learning author Kevin Murphy (boasting over 80K Google Scholar citations). Discover the exceptional quality of our resources, as acknowledged within the pages of the machine learning 'bible'.

Connect and Share the Excitement of Conformal Prediction

I'm enthusiastically promoting the wonderful world of Conformal Prediction (because it truly is awesome) across various social media platforms, including LinkedIn and Twitter. You can find all my research on ResearchGate, and I occasionally share insights from the data science trenches in the industry on Medium. I warmly invite you to connect with me and help spread the word about the fascinating field of Conformal Prediction.

A Warm Invitation to Support and Share: Star the Repo and Spread the Word

Please consider starring 🌟 the repo and sharing it with others who might be interested. If you utilize the repository in a scientific publication, kindly cite Awesome Conformal Prediction to further promote this incredible framework within both academia and industry. Your support is invaluable in advancing the awareness and appreciation of Conformal Prediction:

Manokhin, Valery. (2022). Awesome Conformal Prediction (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://zenodo.org/record/6467205 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6467205

Bibtex entry export https://zenodo.org/record/6467205/export/hx

@software{manokhin_valery_2022_6467205, author = {Manokhin, Valery}, title = {Awesome Conformal Prediction}, month = apr, year = 2022, note = {{"If you use Awesome Conformal Prediction, please cite it as below."}}, publisher = {Zenodo}, version = {v1.0.0}, doi = {10.5281/zenodo.6467205}, url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6467205} }

Why Conformal Prediction?

One of the most influential and celebrated machine learning researchers - Professor Michael I. Jordan:

'𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗮𝗻𝘀𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝗨𝗤 (𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻), 𝗜 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗜 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗻 - 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲, 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗲𝘁𝗰.' (ICML 2021 UQ workshop). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

One the most influential statistics Professors - Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon):

'𝗦𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘂𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗼 𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀. 𝗦𝗼 𝗜 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗻, 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟 𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.' 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Prof. Emmanual Candes (Stanford) - Neurips 2022 key talk.

'𝓒𝓸𝓷𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓵 𝓲𝓷𝓯𝓮𝓻𝓮𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓶𝓮𝓽𝓱𝓸𝓭𝓼 𝓪𝓻𝓮 𝓫𝓮𝓬𝓸𝓶𝓲𝓷𝓰 𝓪𝓵𝓵 𝓽𝓱𝓮 𝓻𝓪𝓰𝓮 𝓲𝓷 𝓪𝓬𝓪𝓭𝓮𝓶𝓲𝓪 𝓪𝓷𝓭 𝓲𝓷𝓭𝓾𝓼𝓽𝓻𝔂 𝓪𝓵𝓲𝓴𝓮. 𝓘𝓷 𝓪 𝓷𝓾𝓽𝓼𝓱𝓮𝓵𝓵, 𝓽𝓱𝓮𝓼𝓮 𝓶𝓮𝓽𝓱𝓸𝓭𝓼 𝓭𝓮𝓵𝓲𝓿𝓮𝓻 𝓮𝔁𝓪𝓬𝓽 𝓹𝓻𝓮𝓭𝓲𝓬𝓽𝓲𝓸𝓷 𝓲𝓷𝓽𝓮𝓻𝓿𝓪𝓵𝓼 𝓯𝓸𝓻 𝓯𝓾𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮 𝓸𝓫𝓼𝓮𝓻𝓿𝓪𝓽𝓲𝓸𝓷𝓼 𝔀𝓲𝓽𝓱𝓸𝓾𝓽 𝓶𝓪𝓴𝓲𝓷𝓰 𝓪𝓷𝔂 𝓭𝓲𝓼𝓽𝓻𝓲𝓫𝓾𝓽𝓲𝓸𝓷𝓪𝓵 𝓪𝓼𝓼𝓾𝓶𝓹𝓽𝓲𝓸𝓷 𝔀𝓱𝓪𝓽𝓼𝓸𝓮𝓿𝓮𝓻 𝓸𝓽𝓱𝓮𝓻 𝓽𝓱𝓪𝓷 𝓱𝓪𝓿𝓲𝓷𝓰 𝓲𝓲𝓭, 𝓪𝓷𝓭 𝓶𝓸𝓻𝓮 𝓰𝓮𝓷𝓮𝓻𝓪𝓵𝓵𝔂, 𝓮𝔁𝓬𝓱𝓪𝓷𝓰𝓮𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 𝓭𝓪𝓽𝓪.'

https://slideslive.com/icml-2021/workshop-on-distributionfree-uncertainty-quantification

Konrad Banachewicz, Principal Data Scientist | Kaggle Grandmaster | Author of the "Kaggle book" and "Machine Learning using Tensorflow Cookbook"

'𝕋𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝕣𝕖𝕡𝕠 𝕚𝕤 𝕢𝕦𝕚𝕥𝕖, 𝕢𝕦𝕚𝕥𝕖 𝕤𝕡𝕖𝕔𝕥𝕒𝕔𝕦𝕝𝕒𝕣 𝕚𝕟𝕕𝕖𝕖𝕕.'

An Impressive Endorsement: Conformal Prediction's Growing Appeal in Academia and Industry

When highly respected professors from top research labs worldwide express their support for conformal prediction, it speaks volumes about its credibility and potential.

As for its industry applications, Conformal Prediction has already been powering Microsoft Azure's primary anomaly detection offering for several years. With exponential growth in academia during 2021-2022 and the increasing availability of open-source libraries, it's clear that the industry is poised for a similar surge in adoption.

📢📢 Attention, industry professionals: The revolution in Uncertainty Quantification, Probabilistic Prediction, and Forecasting is here, and it's making waves! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Embrace the future of machine learning with Conformal Prediction. What about the industry one might ask - Conformal Prediction already for several years powers the main anomaly detection proposition in Microsoft Azure.

Events

Applied Conformal Prediction course starts in May 2024! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Kaggle competition - probabilistic forecasting I: Temperature 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Books

Practical Guide to Applied Conformal Prediction: Learn and apply the best uncertainty frameworks to your industry applications by Valeriy Manokhin (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Amazon USA 🇺🇸, Amazon UK 🇬🇧, Amazon India 🇮🇳, Amazon Germany 🇩🇪, Amazon France 🇫🇷, Amazon Spain 🇪🇸, Amazon Canada 🇨🇦, Amazon Japan 🇯🇵 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Algorithmic Learning in a Random World by Vladimir Vovk and Alex Gammerman, also Glenn Shafer (2022). Second edition. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 great theory based book, very math heavy, no applications, no code
Conformal Prediction for Reliable Machine Learning by Vineeth Balasubramanian, Shen-Shyang Ho, Vladimir Vovk (2014) OLD BOOK, largely out of date, no code

Theses

Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction, PhD Thesis, Valery Manokhin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (over 6K reads on Researchgate alone)
Conformal and Venn Predictors for large, imbalanced and sparse chemoinformatics data, PhD Thesis, Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Competitive online algorithms for probabilistic prediction, PhD Thesis, Raisa Dzhamtyrova (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
Conformal Prediction and Testing under On-line Compression Models, PhD Thesis, Valentina Fedorova (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Online Learning, PhD Thesis, Dmitry Adamskiy (Royal Holloway, UK, 2013)
Black-box Security Measuring Black-box Information Leakage via Machine Learning, PhD Thesis, Giovanni Cherubin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Small and Large Scale Probabilistic Classifiers with Guarantees of Validity, PhD Thesis, Ivan Petej (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Confidence and Venn Machines and Their Applications to Proteomics by Devetyarov, Dmitry (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
Conformal Anomaly Detection - detecting abnormal trajectories in surveillance applications by Rikard Laxhammar (University of Skoeve, Sweden, 2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Inductive Confidence Machine for Pattern Recognition - is it the next step towards AI by David Surkov (Royal Holloway, UK, 2004)
Distribution Free Prediction Intervals for Multiple Functional Regression by Ryan Kelly (University of Pittsburgh, 2020).
Probabilistic Load Forecasting with Deep Conformalized Quantile Regression by Vilde Jensen (Artcic University of Norway, 2021)
Model-free methods for multiple testing and predictive inference, PhD Thesis, Zhimei Ren (Stanford, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Comparison of Support Vector Machines and Deep Learning For QSAR with Conformal Prediction by Deligianni Maria, MSc thesis, Universit of Uppsala (2022)
Predictive Maintenance with Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction: A Commercial Case Study by James Gammerman (2022)
Risk-Sensitive Decision-Making for Autonomous-Driving by Hardy Hasan (University of Uppsala, 2022)
Distribution-Free Finite-Sample Guarantees and Split Conformal Prediction, MSc thesis by Roel Hulsman, University of Oxford (2022)
Coreset-based Protocols for Machine Learning Classification, PhD thesis by Nery Riquelme Granada (Royal Holloway, University of London, 2022)
Conformal survival predictions at a user-controlled time point by Jelle Van Miltenburg (KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, 2018)
Reliable Machine Learning with ConformalPrediction: A Review with Contributions by Martim Sousa (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nonconformity Measures and Ensemble Strategies - An Analysis of Conformal Predictor Efficiency and Validity, PhD thesis by Henrik Linusson (Stockholm University, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Determine and explain confidence in predicting violations on inland ships in the Netherlands by Bakker, Paul (TU Delft, 2020)
Machine Learning with Conformal Prediction for Predictive Maintenance tasks in Industry 4.0 by Shuzhou Liu, Mulahuko Mpova (Jönköping University, 2023).
Benchmarking conformal prediction methods for time series regression by Derck W.E. Prinzhorn (2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Methods in Finance by Finance João Vitor Romano (Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Brazil, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
An Active Learning Approach for Reject Inference in Credit Scoring using Conformal Prediction Intervals on Real and Semi-Artificial Data by Maximilian Suliga (Humboldt University of Berlin, 2023)
Confidence Predictions in Pharmaceutical Sciences by Staffan Arvidsson McShane (Uppsala University, Sweden, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conform With the Wind Processing short-term ensemble forecasts with conformal based methods for probabilistic wind-speed forecasting, MSc thesis by Simon Althoff (Lund University, 2023)
Trustworthy explanations: Improved decision support through well-calibrated uncertainty quantification, PhD thesis by Helena Löfström (Jönköping Universitu, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Data Augmentation and Conformal Prediction, MSc thesis by Helen Lu (MIT, 2023)
Conformal prediction and copula based methods for profile monitioring, MSc Thesis by Niccolo' Donadini (Politecnico di Milano, 2023)
Training Machine Learning-based QSAR models with Conformal Prediction on Experimental Data from DNA-Encoded Chemical Libraries Uppsala University (2021)

Tutorials

A Conformal Prediction tutorial, an introductive review of the basics by Margaux Zaffran 🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2024)
Conformal Prediction Tutorial by Henrik Linusson (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting with Confidence - Henrik Boström by Henrik Boström (2016) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Henrik Linusson: Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges by Gianluca Zeni, Matteo Fontana1 and Simone Vantini (Politecnico di Milano, Italy, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction: How to quantify uncertainty of machine learning models? ECAS-ENBIS course– ENBIS 2023 Annual conference by Margaux Zaffran 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2023)
A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction by Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk (2008) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Tutorial on Venn-ABERS prediction by Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
An Introduction to Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction A Tiny Tutorial on Predicting with Confidence by Henrik Linusson and Ulf Johansson (2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Tutorial on Conformal Prediction Claire Boyer Assistant Professor, LPSM, Paris Sorbonne Université ; Margaux Zaffran PhD Candidate, EDF, Inria, CMAP, École Polytechnique 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Tutorial on Conformal Predictive Distributions by Paolo Toccaceli (2020) 🔥🔥🔥
Venn Predictors Tutorial by Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, Tuve Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction A Tiny Tutorial on Predicting with Confidence by Henrik Linusson and Ulf Johansson (2014)
Conformal Prediction and Venn Predictors A Tutorial on Predicting with Confidence by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Löfström, Henrik Boström, Alex Gammerman (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (2021) Video Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introduction to Conformal Prediction by Vineeth N Balasubramanian (Indian Institue of Technology, Hyderabad, 2015)
Conformal Prediction in Spark by Marco Capuccini (Uppsala University, 2017)
Getting predictions intervals with conformal inference by Rajiv Shah (2022) YouTube Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty estimation in NLP by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch (MIT, USC, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Regression prediction intervals with MAPIE on Kaggle by Carl McBride Ellis, PhD
Distribution-free inference tutorial At the IFDS 2021 Summer School Video 1 Video 2
Conformal Inference Tutorial by Ben Kompa (2020)
Prediction intervals for any machine learning model - How to construct prediction intervals with the Jackknife+ using the MAPIE package by Kjell Jorner (ETH, 2022)
Uncertainty Quantification (1): Enter Conformal Predictors by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification (2): Full Conformal Predictors by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification (3): From Full to Split Conformal Methods by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction in Genomics by BiolApps (2023)
Conformal Prediction: A Visual Introduction in VISxAI by Mihir Agarwal, Lalit Chandra Routhu, Zeel B Patel and Nipun Batra (IIT Gandhinagar, IIT Patna, 2023)
Conformal Predictions from Scratch in Numpy by Jones Wacker (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Courses

Applied Conformal Prediction course starts in May 2024! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertain: Modern topics in uncertainty estimation YouTube Course notes by Aaron Roth (University of Pennsylvania, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Topics in Modern Statistical Learning by Edgar Dobriban (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Theory of Statistics Stanford Statistics course by Prof Emmanuel Candes (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
36-708 Statistical Methods for Machine Learning Carnegie-Mellon course by Prof Larry Wasserman (2022)
Course on Conformal Prediction by Christoph Molnar (2022)
Conformal Prediction - Advanced Topics in Statistical Learning, Spring 2023 by Ryan Tibshirani (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Methods for Efficient and Reliable Deep Learning by Adam, Fisch (MIT, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction 101 - in Portuguese 🇵🇹 by Gustavo Bruschi (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Videos

Treatment of Uncertainty in the Foundations of Probability by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017)
Large-Scale Probabilistic Prediction With and Without Validity Guarantees by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, NeurIPS 2015) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal testing in a binary model situation by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Protected probabilistic classification by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Retrain or not retrain: conformal test martingales for change-point detection by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction by Anastasios Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (Berkeley, ICML 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Steps Toward Trustworthy Machine Learning by Tom Dietterich (2021)
A Tutorial on Conformal Predictive Distributions by Paolo Toccaceli (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Tutorial by Henrik Linusson (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Henrik Linusson: Conformal Prediction by Henrik Linusson (2020)
Predicting with Confidence - Henrik Boström by Henrik Boström (2016)
How to increase certainty in predictive modeling by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Recent Progress in Predictive Inference by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Some recent progress in predictive inference" (Stanford) @ MAD+ by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020)
Conformal Prediction in 2020 by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Assumption-free prediction intervals for black-box regression algorithms by Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Maria Navarro: Quantifying uncertainty in Machine Learning predictions | PyData London 2019 by Maria Navarro (2019)
Conformal Prediction: Enhanced Method for Understanding the Prediction Quality by Artem Ryasik and Greg Landrum
Venn Predictors Tutorial by Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, Tuwe Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021)
Mondrian conformal predictive distributions by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson, and Tuwe Löfström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Calibrating Multi-Class Models by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, and Henrik Boström (2021)
Conformal testing in a binary model situation by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Conformal prediction in Orange by Tomaž Hočevar and Blaž Zupan (2021)
Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets by Anastasios Angelopoulos Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Calibration by Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Reliable Diagnostics by Conformal Predictors by Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2015)
Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Time-to-event Outcomes by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
Algo Hour – Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effect by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment effects(Stanford) by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
Approximation to object conditional validity with inductive conformal predictors by Anthony Bellotti (University of Nottingham Ningbo, China, 2021)
Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (Jönköping University, Sweden, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Transformer-based conformal predictors for paraphrase detection by Patrizio Giavannotti and Prof. Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects by Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2020)
Model-Free Predictive Inference by Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Shapley-value based inductive conformal prediction by William Lopez Jaramillo (2021)
Conformal Training: Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers | DeepMind by David Stutz (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets by Anastasios Angelopoulos (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Assumption-Free, High-Dimensional Inference by Larry Wasserman (2016)
Neural Predictive Monitoring under Partial Observability by Francesca Cairolli (2021)
Conformalized Kernel Ridge Regression and Its Efficiency by Evgeny Burnaev (Skolkovo, Russia, 2015)
Fast conformal classification using influence functions by Giovanni Cherubin (Alan Turing Institute, UK, 2021)
Valid inferential models and conformal prediction by Ryan Martin (North Carolina State University, USA, 2021)
Mondrian conformal predictive distributions by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson and Tuwe Löfström (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Evaluation of updating strategies for conformal predictive systems in the presence of extreme events by Hugo Werner, Lars Carlsson, Ernst Ahlberg and and Henrik Boström (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, 2021)
Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Methods for Predictive Machine Learning With Dependent Data by Victor Chernozhukov (MIT, USA, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Ulf Johansson: Venn Predictors by Ulf Johansson (Jönköping University, Sweden, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Class-wise confidence for debt prediction in real estate management by Soundouss Messoudi (2021)
How Nonconformity Functions and Difficulty of Datasets Impact the Efficiency of Conformal Classifiers by Marharyta Aleksandrova (2021)
Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods by Chirag Gupta (Carnegie Mellon, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Panel with Michael I. Jordan, Vladimir Vovk, and Larry Wasserman, moderated by Aaditya Ramdas by Vladimir Vovk, Larry Wasserman, Michael I. Jordan, Aaditya Ramdas, ICML 2021 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Black-box uncertainty - Anastasios Angelopoulos by Anastasios Angelopoulos (Berkeley, USA, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
P.C. Mahalanobis Memorial Lectures 2020-21 by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2021)
Rahul Vishwakarma: New Perspective on Machine Learning Predictions Under Uncertainty | SNIA Storage Developer Conference, Santa Clara 2019 by Rahul Vishwakarma (2019)
Fast conformal classification using influence functions by Umang Bhatt, Adrian Weller and Giovanni Cherubin (Cambridge / Alan Turinig Institute, 2021).
Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series | ISDFS by Margaux Zaffran (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥Code
Recent progress in predictive inference by Emmanuel Candes, Stanford University (2022)
Conformalized Survival Analysis with Adaptive Cutoffs by Rina Foygel Barber, Zhimei Ren, Yu Gui and Rohan Hore, University of Chicago (2022)
Calibrating probabilistic hierarchical forecasts with conformal predictions by Daan Ferdinandusse (University of Amsterdam, 2022)
Michael I. Jordan on Conformal Prediction by Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2022)
Distribution-free Prediction: Exchangeability and Beyond by Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2022)
Purdue Statistics Theme Seminar, Conformal Prediction in 2022 by Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2022)
WILL MY ROBOT ACHIEVE MY GOALS? PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY THAT AN MDP POLICY REACHES A USER-SPECIFIED BEHAVIOR TARGET by Alexander Guyer and Thomas G. Dietterich (University of Oregon, 2022)
Robust and Equitable Uncertainty Estimation by Aaron Roth(2022)
Conformal prediction under feedback covariate shift for biomolecular design by Clara Wong-Fannjiang (Berkeley, 2022)
Conformal prediction in 2022 invited talk by Emmanuel Candes at NeurIPS2022 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Broadening the Scope of Conformal Inference by Michael I. Jordan (University of Berkeley, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Paper Reading Group - Fortuna, a Library for Uncertainty Quantification
CLIMB Evergreen talk with Emmanuel Candès: Conformal Inference when Data is not Exchangeable TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Algo Hour – Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects | Lihua Lei
'MoroccoAI webinar - Dr. Soundouss Messoudi - 'Confidence learning using conformal prediction'
Emmanuel Candes - A Taste of Conformal Prediction by Emmanuel Candes (2023)
Foundations of Conformal Prediction - Full Conformal Predictors by Mahdi Torabi Rad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Max Mergenthaler and Fede Garza - Quantifying Uncertainty in Time Series Forecasting by Max Mergenthaler and Fede Garza (Nixtla, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification with the Fortuna library by Gianluca Detommaso (AWS) by Gianluca Detommaso (Amazon, 2023)
Quantifying Uncertainty in Time Series Forecasting by Max Mergenthaler and Fede Garza (Nixtla, 2023)
NISS/Merck Meetup on Conformal Inference: Advancing the Boundaries of Machine Learning 4.19.2023 (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Max Kuhn - The Post-Modeling Model to Fix the Model by Max Kuhn (2023)🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
ISDFS Talk: Robots that ask for help: Conformal Prediction for LLM Planners by Anirudha Majumdar (Princeton/DeepMind) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥(2023)
Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners by Allen Z Ren (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
[Conformal Prediction & Complex Data Analytics] (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbHsmPupFak) by Matteo Fontana (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Three Easy Steps to Understand Conformal Prediction (CP), Conformity Score, Python Implementation by (Dr. Data Science 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Rising Stars #8: Clara Wong-Fannjiang (Genentech) - Prediction-Powered Inference
Rising Stars #10 - Special Series on Conformal Prediction: Isaac Gibbs (Stanford University) Conformal Inference with Conditional Guarantees
Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networks by Andreas Auer TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introducing Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference (SPCI) by Chen Xu (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Intervals: Empowering Executives for Informed Decision by Matthew Kolakowski (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Inference with Tidymodels - posit::conf(2023) by Max Kuhn (2023)
ACon^2: Adaptive Conformal Consensus for Provable Blockchain Oracles by Sangdon Park (2023)
Leveraging conformal prediction for calibrated probabilistic time series forecast by Inge van den Ende (Dexter Energy, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks by Kexin Huang (Stanford, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-values by Ying Jin (Stanford, 2023)
Trustworthy Retrieval Augmented Chatbots Utilizing Conformal Predictors by Shuo Li (UPenn, 2023).
An introduction to conformal prediction - PyLadies Amsterdam by Inge van den Ende (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥code
Anushri Dixit - Planning with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Safety-Critical Tasks (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Analítica acelerada con Shapelets y conformal prediction, ~48 mins onwards by Carl McBride Ellis (2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Quantile Estimation in Economics by Martin Fankhauser (Bocconi, 2024)
Big Data: 4th lecture (uncertainty in learning, big data for NLP) by Prof. Patrick Glauner (2024)
Unveiling Precision: A Novel ML Framework for Accurate Probability Estimates by Abel and Edgar, not CP per se, showing the critical importance of calibration in finance (2024)
Autonomy Talks - Somil Bansal: Safety Assurances for Learning-Enabled Autonomous Systems by Somil Bansal (USC, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Papers

Introducing Conformal Prediction in Predictive Modeling. A Transparent and Flexible Alternative to Applicability Domain Determination by Ulf Norinder, Lars Carlsson, Scott Boyer, and Martin Eklund (2014)
Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Jitendra Malik, & Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift by Ryan Tibshirani, Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candes, Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, Stanford, Chicago, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Regression Conformal Prediction with Nearest Neighbours by Harris Papadopoulos, Vladimir Vovk and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods by Chirag Gupta, Arun Kuchibhotla and Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Cross-conformal predictive distributions by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valery Manokhin and Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2018) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Criteria of Efficiency for Conformal Prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valentina Fedorova, Ivan Petej, and Alex Gammerman ((Royal Holloway, UK, 2016)
Conformal Prediction for Simulation Models by Benjamin LeRoy and Chad Schafer (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
Distribution-free, risk-controlling prediction sets Stephen Bates, Anastasios Angelopoulos, Lihua Lei, Jitendra Malik and Michael I Jordan (Berkeley, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conditional calibration for false discovery rate control under dependence by William Fithian and Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2021)
Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges by Gianluca Zeni, Matteo Fontana and S. Vantini (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Regression conformal prediction with random forests by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Boström, Tuve Löfström and Henrik Linusson (2014)
A conformal prediction approach to explore functional data by Jing Lei, Alessandro Rinaldo, Larry Wasserman (Carnegie Mellon, 2013)
An electronic nose-based assistive diagnostic prototype for lung cancer detection with conformal prediction by Xianghao Zhana,c, Zhan Wanga, Meng Yangb, Zhiyuan Luod, You Wanga, Guang Li (2020)
Predicting the Rate of Skin Penetration Using an Aggregated Conformal Prediction Framework by Martin Lindh, A. Karlén, Ulf Norinder (2017)
The application of conformal prediction to the drug discovery process by Martin Eklund, Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer & Lars Carlsson (2014) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Distributional conformal prediction by Victor Chernozhukov, Kaspar Wüthrich, Yinchu Zhu (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Anomaly Detection of Trajectories with Kernel Density Estimation by Conformal Prediction by James Smith, Ilia Nouretdinov, Rachel Craddock, Charles Offer, and Alexander Gammerman (2009)
Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets by Christopher Kath, Florian Ziel (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
The application of conformal prediction to the drug discovery process by Martin Eklund, Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer & Lars Carlsson (2013)
Anomaly Detection of Trajectories with Kernel Density Estimation by Conformal Prediction by James Smith, Ilia Nouretdinov, Rachel Craddock, Charles Offer, Alexander Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2014)
Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges by Gianluca Zeni, Matteo Fontana1 and Simone Vantini (Politecnico di Milano, Italy, 2021)
Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests by Arun Kuchibhotla (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
Conformal prediction with localization by Leying Guan (Yale, 2020)
Predicting skin sensitizers with confidence - Using conformal prediction to determine applicability domain of GARD by Andy Forreryd, Ulf Norinder, Tim Lindberg, Malin Lindstedt (2018)
Binary classification of imbalanced datasets using conformal prediction by Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer (2017)
Discretized conformal prediction for efficient distribution-free inference by Wenyu Chen, Kelli-Jean Chun, and Rina Foygel Barber (2017)
Validity, consonant plausibility measures, and conformal prediction by Leonardo Cella. and Ryan Martin (2021)
Conformal Prediction Classification of a Large Data Set of Environmental Chemicals from ToxCast and Tox21 Estrogen Receptor Assays by Ulf Norinder, Scott Boyer (2016)
Conformal prediction to define applicability domain – A case study on predicting ER and AR binding by U. Norinder, A. Rybacka, P.Andersson (2016)
Conformal prediction of biological activity of chemical compounds by Paolo Toccaceli, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introducing conformal prediction in predictive modeling for regulatory purposes. A transparent and flexible alternative to applicability domain determination by Ulf Norinder, Lars Carlsson, Scott Boyer, Martin Eklund (2015)
Aggregated Conformal Prediction by Lars CarlssonMartin EklundUlf Norinder (2014)
Interpretation of Conformal Prediction Classification Models by Ernst Ahlberg, Ola Spjuth, Catrin Hasselgren, Lars Carlsson (2015)
Cross-Conformal Prediction with Ridge Regression by Harris Papadopoulos (2015)
Sparse conformal prediction for dissimilarity data by Frank-Michael Schleif, Xibin Zhu and Barbara Hammer (2015)
Effective utilization of data in inductive conformal prediction using ensembles of neural networks by Tuve Löfström, Ulf Johansson and Henrik Boström (2013)
Beyond the Basic Conformal Prediction Framework by Vladimir Vovk (2014)
An electronic nose-based assistive diagnostic prototype for lung cancer detection with conformal prediction by Xianghao Zhan, Zhan Wang, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo, You Wang, Guang Li (Stanford, Royal Holloway, China University of Mining and Technology, 2020)
Predicting with confidence: Using conformal prediction in drug discovery by Jonathan Alvarsson, Staffan Arvidsson McShane, Ulf Norinder, Ola Spjuth (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Inductive conformal prediction for silent speech recognition by Ming Zhang, You Wang, Zhang Wei, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo, Guang Li (2020)
Large scale comparison of QSAR and conformal prediction methods and their applications in drug discovery by Nicolas Bosc, Francis Atkinson, Eloy Felix, Anna Gaulton, Anne Hersey and Andrew R. Leach (2019)
Deep Conformal Prediction for Robust Models by Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau and Sébastien Destercke (2020)
Strong validity, consonance, and conformal prediction by Leonardo Cella and Ryan Martin (2020)
Skin Doctor CP: Conformal Prediction of the Skin Sensitization Potential of Small Organic Molecules by Anke Wilm, U. Norinder, M. Agea, Christina de Bruyn Kops, Conrad Stork, J. Kühnl, J. Kirchmair (2020)
Conformal prediction based active learning by linear regression optimization by Sergio Matiz, Kenneth E.Barner (2020)
Conformal prediction intervals for the individual treatment effect by Danijel Kivaranovic, Robin Ristl, Martin Poschb, Hannes Leeb (2020)
Nearest neighbor based conformal prediction by László Györfi and Harro Walk (2020)
Concepts and Applications of Conformal Prediction in Computational Drug Discovery by Isidro Cortés-Ciriano and Andreas Bender (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting Ames Mutagenicity Using Conformal Prediction in the Ames/QSAR International Challenge Project by Ulf Norinder, Ernst Ahlberg, Lars Carlsson (2018)
Nested Conformal Prediction and the Generalized Jackknife by Arun Kuchibhotla and Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon, 2019)
Predictive inference with the jackknife+ by Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel Candès, Aaditya Ramdas, and Ryan Tibshirani (2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valery Manokhin and Min-ge Xie (Royal Holloway, UK, Rutgers, USA, 2018) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Distribution-Free Test of Covariate Shift Using Conformal Prediction by Xiaoyu Hu and Jing Lei (Peking Univerity, China and Carnegie Mellon, USA, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests by Arun Kuchibhotla (Carnegie Mellon, 2021)
Conformal prediction with localization by Leying Guan (2020)
Multitask Modeling with Confidence Using Matrix Factorization and Conformal Prediction by Ulf Norinder, Fredrik Svensson
Conformal prediction of HDAC inhibitors by U. Norinder, J.J.Navaka, E. Lopez-Lopez, D. Mucs & J.L. Medina-Franco (2019)
Computing Full Conformal Prediction Set with Approximate Homotopy by Eugene Ndiaye, Ichiro Takeuchi (2019)
Conformal Prediction Based on Raman Spectra for the Classification of Chinese Liquors by Jiao Gu, Huaibo Liu, Chaoqun Ma, Lei Li, Chun Zhu, Christ Glorieux, Guoqing Chen (2019)
Efficient and minimal length parametric conformal prediction regions by Daniel Eck and Forrest Crawford (2019)
Conformal Prediction for Students' Grades in a Course Recommender System by Raphael Morsomme and Evgueni Smirnov (2019)
Efficient iterative virtual screening with Apache Spark and conformal prediction by Laeeq Ahmed, Valentin Georgiev, Marco Capuccini, Salman Toor, Wesley Schaal, Erwin Laure and Ola Spjuth (2018)
Predicting Off-Target Binding Profiles With Confidence Using Conformal Prediction by Samuel Lampa, Jonathan Alvarsson, Staffan Arvidsson Mc Shane, Arvid Berg, Ernst Ahlberg, Ola Spjuth (2018)
Maximizing gain in high-throughput screening using conformal prediction by Fredrik Svensson, Avid M. Afzal1, Ulf Norinder and Andreas Bender (2018)
Conformalized Survival Analysis by Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei and Zhimei Ren (2021) R-Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Random Forest Prediction Intervals by Haozhe Zhang†, Joshua Zimmerman†, Dan Nettleton† and Daniel J. Nordman† (Iowa State University, USA, 2019)
Conformal Training: Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers | DeepMind by David Stutz (DeepMind), Krishnamurthy Dvijotham, Ali Taylan Cemgil and Arnaud Doucet (2021)
Comparing the Bayes and typicalness frameworks by Thomas Melluish, Craig Saunders, Ilia Nouretdinov, and Volodya Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, 2001). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Large-scale probabilistic predictors with and without guarantees of validity by Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, and Valentina Fedorova (Royal Holloway, Yandex, NeurIPS) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Inductive conformal prediction for silent speech recognition by Ming Zhang, You Wang, Wei Zhang, Meng Yang, Zhiyuan Luo and Guang Li (2020)
Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histograms by Matteo Sesia and Yaniv Romano (NeurIPS 2021 paper). code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Valid prediction intervals for regression problems by Nicolas Dewolf, Bernard De Baets, Willem Waegeman (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Application of conformal prediction interval estimations to market makers’ net positions by Wojciech Wisniewski, David Lindsay, Sian Lindsay (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
Locally Valid and Discriminative Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning Models by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (NeurIPS, 2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Distribution-Free Federated Learning with Conformal Predictions by Charles Lu and Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer (2022)
Coreset-based Conformal Prediction for Large-scale Learning by Nery Riquelme-Granada, Khuong Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019)
Fast probabilistic prediction for kernel SVM via enclosing balls by Nery Riquelme-Granada, Khuong Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, UK, 2020)
Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016)
Predictive Inference with Weak Supervision by Maxime Cauchois, Suyash Gupta, Alnur Ali and John Duchi (Stanford, 2022)
Conformal Prediction in Clinical Medical Sciences by Janette Vazquez and Julio C. Facelli University of Utah, 2022)
Provably Improving Expert Predictions with Conformal Prediction by Eleni Straitouri, Lequng Wang, Nastaran Okati and Manuel Gomez Rodriguez (Max Planck Institute for Software Systems / Cornell University, 2021).
Conformal predictive distributions with kernels by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valery Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017)
Multi-class probabilistic classification using inductive and cross Venn–Abers predictors by Valery Manokhin (Royal Holloway, UK, 2017). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Computationally efficient versions of conformal predictive distributions by Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, Ilia Nouretdinov, Valery Manokhin, Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, 2019).
Cover your cough: detection of respiratory events with confidence using a smartwatch by Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo (Royal Holloway, 2019).
Predicting Amazon customer reviews with deep confidence using deep learning and conformal prediction by Ulf Norinder and Petra Norinder (2022)
Conformal Prediction for the Design Problem by Clara Fannjianga, Stephen Batesa, Anastasios Angelopoulosa, Jennifer Listgartena and Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Amit Kohli, Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Jitendra Malik, Thayer Alshaabi, Srigokul Upadhyayula, Yaniv Romano (Berkeley and Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal predictive decision making by Vladimir Vovk and Claus Bendtsen (2018).
The Lifecycle of a Statistical Model: Model Failure Detection, Identification, and Refitting by Alnur Ali1, Maxime Cauchois and John C. Duchi (Stanford, 2022)
E-values: Calibration, combination, and applications by Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway) and Ruodu Wang (University of Waterloo) (2019)
Conformal Prediction Sets with Limited False Positives by Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Tommi Jaakkola and Regina Barzilay code (MIT / Google Research, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series by Margaux Zaffran, Aymeric Dieuleveut, Olivier Fe ́ron, Yannig Goude, and Julie Josse (EDF / INRIA / CMAP, France, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Code
Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting by Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchi, Stian Norman Anfinsen (Arctic University of Norway, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Python Code
Prediction of Metabolic Transformations using Cross Venn-ABERS Predictors by Staffan Arvidsson, Ola Spjuth, Lars Carlsson and Paolo Toccaceli (University of Uppsala, Astra Zeneca, Royal Holloway, 2017)
Probabilistic Prediction in scikit-learn by Sweidan, Dirar and Ulf Johansson. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Online Learning: Online Calibration Without a Holdout Set by Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates and Yaniv Romano (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Valid model-free spatial prediction by Huiying Mao, Ryan Martin and Brian J Reich (2020)
Conformal Prediction with Temporal Quantile Adjustments by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Calibration of Natural Language Understanding Models with Venn–ABERS Predictors by Patrizio Giovannotti (Royal Holloway, UK, 2022) NLP
Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction set for time-series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series by Margaux Zaffran, Aymeric Dieuleveut, Olivier Fe ́ron, Yannig Goude, and Julie Josse (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥Code
Conformal Time-Series Forecasting by Kamile Stankeviciu te and Ahmed M. Alaa (2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Efficient Conformal Prediction via cascaded inference with expanded admission by Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Tommi Jaakkola, Regina Barzilay (MIT 2021]. Python Code
Split Localized Conformal Prediction by Xing Han, Ziyang Tang, Joydeep Ghosh, Qiang Liu (University of Texas, 2022). Python Code
Three Applications of Conformal Prediction for Rating Breast Density in Mammography by Charles Lu, Ken Chang, Praveer Singh, Jayashree Kalpathy-Crame (2022)
Conformal prediction set for time-series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) Python Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Recommendation systems with distribution-free reliability guarantees) by Anastasious Angelopolous, Karl Krauth, Stephen Bates, Yixin Wang and Michael I. Jordan (Berkeley 2022)
Model Agnostic Conformal Hyperparameter Optimization by Riccardo Doyle (Spotify, 2022)
Improving Trustworthiness of AI Disease Severity Rating in Medical Imaging with Ordinal Conformal Prediction Sets by Charles Lu, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stuart Pomerantz (2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Off-Policy Prediction in Contextual Bandits by Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq, Jean-François Ton, Rob Cornish, Yee Whye Teh, Arnaud Doucet (Oxford, 2022) Video presentation
Training Uncertainty-Aware Classifiers with Conformalized Deep Learning by Bat-Sheva Einbinder, Yaniv Romano, Matteo Sesia, Yanfei Zhou (Technion, USCLA 2022) Video presentation; Code
Semantic uncertainty intervals for disentangled latent space by Swami Sankaranarayanan, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano, and Phillip Isola (Unversity of Berkeley, Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
MAPIE: an open-source library for distribution-free uncertainty quantification by Vianney Taquet, Vincent Blot, Thomas Morzadec, Louis Lacombe, Nicolas Brunel (Quantmetry, France, 2022)
CODiT: Conformal Out-of-Distribution Detection in Time- Series Data by Ramneet Kaur et.al., Unibersity of Pensylvania (2022). Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Confident Adaptive Language Modeling by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch, Jai Gupta, Mostafa Dehghani, Dara Bahri, Vinh Q. Tran, Yi Tay, Donald Metzler (Google, MIT, 2022j
Probabilistic Conformal Prediction Using Conditional Random Samples by Zhendong Wang, Ruijiang Gao, Mingzhang Yin, Mingyuan Zhou, David M. Blei (Columbia University, 2020) Code
A general framework for multi-step ahead adaptive conformal heteroscedastic time series forecasting by Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tome and Jose Moreira (University of Aveiro, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A novel Deep Learning approach for one-step Conformal Prediction approximation by Julia A. Meister, Khuong An Nguyen, Stelios Kapetanakis and Zhiyuan Luo (University of Brighton, UK, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Risk Control by Anastasious Angelopolous, Stephen Bates, Adam Fisch, Lihua Lei and Tal Schuster (Berkeley, Stanford, MIT and Google Research, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CD-split and HPD-split: Efficient Conformal Regions in High Dimensions by Rafael Izbicki, Gilson Shimizu, Rafael B. Stern (San Carlos University Brazil, 2022)
Flexible distribution-free conditional predictive bands using density estimators by Rafael Izbicki, Gilson Shimizu, and Rafael B. Stern (San Carlos University Brazil, 2020)
Split Conformal Prediction for Dependent Data by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos, João Vitor Romano (IMPA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2022)
Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shifts by Isaac Gibbs and Emmanual Candes (Stanford, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A General Framework For Multi-step Ahead Adaptive Conformal Heteroscedastic Time Series Forecasting by Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tomé, University of Aveiro (2022) Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Cough-based COVID-19 detection with audio quality clustering and confidence measure based learning by Alice E. Ashby, Julia A. Meister, Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo, Werner Gentzk (University of Brighton, 2022)
Assessing Explanation Quality by Venn Prediction by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostroem and Ulf Johansson (2022)
Conformal prediction for hypersonic flight vehicle classification by Zepu Xi, Xuebin Zhuang, Hongbo Chen (Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, 2022) Slides
Robust Gas Demand Forecasting With Conformal Prediction by Mouhcine Mendil, Luca Mossina, Marc Nabhan, Kevin Pasini (2022)
Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets by Christopher Kath and Florian Ziel (2020)
Conformal Prediciton beyond exchangeability by Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel J. Candes, Aaditya Ramdas, Ryan J. Tibshirani (2022)
Robust Gas Demand Forecasting with Conformal Prediction by Mouhcine Mendil, Luca Mossina, Marc Nabhan, Kevin Pasini (2022)
Split conformal prediction for dependant data by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos and João Vitor Romano (2022)
Integrative conformal p-values for powerful out-of-distribution testing with labeled outliers by Ziyi Liang, Matteo Sesia, Wenguang Sun (UCLA, 2022)
Conformal Prediction Bands for Two-Dimensional Functional Time Series by Niccolo` Ajroldia, Jacopo Diquigiovannib, Matteo Fontanac, Simone Vantinia (2022)
Conformal prediction of small-molecule drug resistance in cancer cell lines by Saiveth Hernandez-Hernandez, Sachin Vishwakarma and Pedro Ballester (2022)
Ellipsoidal conformal inference for Multi-Target Regression by Soundouss Messoudi, Sebastien Destercke, Sylvain Rousseau (2022) Slides
Conformal Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Data: A Survey by Sophia Sun (UCLA, 2022)
Deep Learning With Conformal Prediction for Hierarchical Analysis of Large-Scale Whole-Slide Tissue Images by Håkan Wieslander , Philip J. Harrison, Gabriel Skogberg, Sonya Jackson, Markus Fridén, Johan Karlsson, Ola Spjuth, and Carolina Wählby (2021)
Audio–visual domain adaptation using conditional semi-supervised Generative Adversarial Networks by Christos Athanasiadis, Enrique Hortal, Stylianos Asteriadis (2022)
Conformal Prediction is Robust to Label Noise by Bat-Sheva Einbinder, Stephen Bates, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Asaf Gendler, Yaniv Romano (2022)
Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Batch Multivalid Conformal Prediction by Christopher Jung, Georgy Noarov, Ramya Ramalingam, Aaron Roth (Stanford, university of Pensylvania, 2022)
Selection by Prediction with Conformal p-values by Ying Jin1 and Emmanuel J. Candes, (Stanford, 2022) Video code
Few-Shot Calibration of Set Predictors via Meta-Learned Cross-Validation-Based Conformal Prediction by Sangwoo Park, Kfir M. Cohen, Osvaldo Simeone (2022)
Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regression by Meichen Liu, Lei Ding, Dengdeng Yu, Wulong Liu, Linglong Kong, Bei Jiang (University of Alberta, Noah Arc Huawei, 2022)
Test-time recalibration of conformal predictors under distribution shift based on unlabeled examples by Fatih Furkan Yilmaz, and Reinhard Heckel (Rice University / University of Munuch, 2022)
Extending Conformal Prediction to Hidden Markov Models with Exact Validity via de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains by Buddhika Nettasinghe, Samrat Chatterjee, Ramakrishna Tipireddy, Mahantesh Halappanavar (2022)
Predictive inference with feature conformal prediction by Jiaye Teng, Chuan Wen, Dinghuai Zhang, Yoshua Bengio, Yang Gao, Yang Yuan (Tsinghua University, Mila - Quebec AI Institute, Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai Qi Zhi Institute, 2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Constructing Prediction Intervals with Neural Networks: An Empirical Evaluation of Bootstrapping and Conformal Inference Methods by Alex Contarino, Christine Schubert Kabban, Chancellor Johnstone and Fairul Mohd-Zaid (2022)
Spatio-Temporal Wildfire Prediction using Multi-Modal Data by Chen Xu1, Yao Xie, Daniel A. Zuniga Vazquez, Rui Yao, and Feng Qiu (2022)
Calibrating AI models for few-shot demodulation via conformal prediction Kfir M. Cohen1, Sangwoo Park, Osvaldo Simeone, Shlomo Shamai (2022)
Test-time recalibration of conformal predictors under distribution shift based on unlabeled examples Code
Nonparametric Quantile Regression: Non-Crossing Constraints and Conformal Prediction by Wenlu Tang, Guohao Shen, Yuanyuan Lin and Jian Huang (The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2022)
Safe Planning in Dynamic Environments using Conformal Prediction by Lars Lindemann, Matthew Cleaveland∗, Gihyun Shim, and George J. Pappas (University of Pensylvania, 2022)
Conformal prediction under feedback covariate shift for biomolecular design by Clara Fannjiang, Stephen Bates, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos,and Michael I. Jordan (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictor for Improving Zero-shot Text Classification Efficiency by Prafulla Kumar Choubey, Yu Bai, Chien-Sheng Wu, Wenhao Liu, Nazneen Rajani (Saleforce AI Research and Hugging Face, 2022)
Bayesian Optimization with Conformal Coverage Guarantees by Samuel Stanton, Wesley Maddox and Andrew Gordon Wilson (Genentech, New York University, 2022) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Measuring the Confidence of Traffic Forecasting Models: Techniques, Experimental Comparison and Guidelines towards Their Actionability by Ibai Lanaa, Ignacio (In ̃aki) Olabarrietaa, Javier Del Sera (2022)
Training Uncertainty-Aware Classifiers with Conformalized Deep Learning by Bat-Sheva Einbinder, Yaniv Romano, Matteo Sesia and Yanfei Zhou (Technion/UCLA, NeurIPS 2022 paper) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regression by Meichen Liu, Lei Ding, Dengdeng Yu, Wulong Liu, Linglong Kong, Bei Jiang (University of Alberta, Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab Canada, NeurIPS 2022 paper) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Engineering Uncertainty Representations to Monitor Distribution Shifts by Thomas Bonnier and Benjamin Bosch (Société Générale, 2022)
CONffusion: CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR DIFFUSION MODELS Project Code by Eliahu Horwitz, Yedid Hoshen (Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Semantic uncertainty intervals for disentangled latent spaces by Swami Sankaranarayanan, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano, Phillip Isola (MIT, Berkeley, Technion, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
But are you sure? An uncertainty-aware perspective on explainable AI by Charlie Marx, Youngsuk Park, Hilaf Hasson, Yuyang (Bernie) Wang, Stefano Ermon, Jun Huan (2022)
Calibrating AI Models for Wireless Communications via Conformal Prediction by Kfir M. Cohen, Sangwoo Park, Osvaldo Simeone and Shlomo Shamai (2022)
Predicting Endocrine Disruption Using Conformal Prediction – A Prioritization Strategy to Identify Hazardous Chemicals with Confidence by Maria Sapounidou, Ulf Norinder and Patrick Andersson (2022)
Conformal Loss-Controlling Prediction by Di Wang, Ping Wang, Zhong Ji, Xiaojun Yang, Hongyue Li (2023)
ROBUST AND SCALABLE UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION WITH CONFORMAL PREDICTION FOR MACHINE-LEARNED INTERATOMIC POTENTIALS Code by Yuge Hu, Joseph Musielewicz, Zachary Ulissi, Andrew J. Medford (Georgia Institute of Technology/Carnegie Mellon University, 2022)
Clustering of Trajectories using Non-Parametric Conformal DBSCAN Algorithm by Haotian Wang, Jie Gao, Min-ge Xie Rutgers University, 2022)
But Are You Sure? An Uncertainty-Aware Perspective on Explainable AI by Charlie Marx, Youngsuk Park, Hilaf Hasson, Yuyang Wang, Stefano Ermon, Jun Huan (2022)
Prediction-Powered Inference by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Clara Fannjiang, Michael I. Jordan, Tijana Zrnic (Universify of Berkeley, 2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy Detection of Railway Signals by Leo Andeol, Thomas Fel, Florence de Grancey, Luca Mossina (Institute de Mathematiques de Toulouse, SCNF, 2022)
Conformal inference is (almost) free for neural networks trained with early stopping by Ziyi Liang, Yanfei Zhou†, Matteo Sesia (University of Southern California, 2022)
PAC Prediction Sets for Large Language Models of Code by Adam Khakhar, Stephen Mell, Osbert Bastani (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
Physics Constrained Motion Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification by Renukanandan Tumu, Lars Lindemann†, Truong Nghiem, Rahul Mangharam, (2023)
Accelerating difficulty estimation for conformal regression forests by Henrik Bostroem, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Loefstroem, Ulf Johansson (2017)
Conformal prediction for exponential families and generalized linear models
How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control by Jacopo Teneggi, Matt Tivnan, J Webster Stayman, Jeremias Sulam (John Hopkins University, 2023) Code
Localized Conformal Prediction: A Generalized Inference Framework to Conformal Prediction Code R package
From Group-Differences to Single-Subject Probability: Conformal Prediction-based Uncertainty Estimation for Brain-Age Modeling by Ernsting et.al. (2023)
Conformal prediction for STL runtime verification by Lars Lindemann, Xin Qin, Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh, George J. Pappas (University of Pennsylvania/University of Southern California, 2022)
Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Motion Planning among Dynamic Agents by Anushri Dixit, Lars Lindemann, Skylar Wei, Matthew Cleaveland, George J Pappas, Joel W Burdick (California Institute of Technology/University of Pennsylvania, 2022)
Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage Code by Yaniv Romano, Matteo Sesia, Emmanuel Candes (Neurips, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Risk Control for Online Learning Models by Shai Feldman, Liran Ringel, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano (2023)
Derandomized novelty detection with FDR control via conformal e-values by Meshi Bashari, Amir Epstein, Yaniv Romano, and Matteo Sesia (2023) code
Sensititivty analysis of individual treatment effects: A robust conformal inference approach Code by Ying Jin, Zhimei Ren and Emmanual Candes (2023)
Improving Adaptive Conformal Prediction Using Self-Supervised Learning by Nabeel Seedat, Alan Jeffares, Fergus Imrie and Mihaela van der Schaar (Cambridge, 2023) Video Code
[Learning by Transduction - of the of earliest conformal prediction papers] (https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2074094.2074112#sec-comments) by Alex Gammerman, Vladimir Vovk and Vladimir Vapnik (Royal Holloway, University of London, 1998) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Hedging Predictions in Machine Learning by Alexander Gammerman and Vladimir Vovk (2008) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting Aromatic Amine Mutagenicity with Confidence: A Case Study Using Conformal Prediction by Ulf Norinder, Glenn Myatt and Ernst Ahlberg
Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning by Aadyot Bhatnagar, Huan Wang, Caiming Xiong, Yu Bai (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Fortuna: A Library for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning by Gianluca Detommaso, Alberto Gasparin, Michele Donini, Matthias Seeger, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Cedric Archambeau (2023)
Conformal inference is (almost) free for neural networks trained with early stopping by Ziyi Liang, Yanfei Zhou, Matteo Sesia (2023)
Intervening With Confidence: Conformal Prescriptive Monitoring of Business Processes by Mahmoud Shoush and Marlon Dumas (University of Tartu,2022)
Machine-Learning Applications of Algorithmic Randomness by Vladimir Vovk, Alex Gammerman and Craig Saunders (1999) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
On the universal distribution of the coverage in split conformal prediction by Paulo C. Marques F. (2023)
Lightweight, Uncertainty-Aware Conformalized Visual Odometry by Alex C. Stutts, Danilo Erricolo, Theja Tulabandhula, and Amit Ranjan Trivedi (University of Illinois Chicago, 2023)
Group conditional validity via multi-group learning by Samuel Deng, Navid Ardeshir, Daniel Hsu (Columbia University, 2023)
Improving Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Classifiers via Neighborhood Conformal Prediction: Novel Algorithm and Theoretical Analysis by Subhankar Ghosh, Taha Belkhouj, Yan Yan, Janardhan Rao Doppa (Washington State University, 2023)
Mondrian conformal regressors by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson (2020)
Mondrian Conformal Predictive Distributions by Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Prediction by Reweighting Nonconformity Score by Salim I. Amoukou, Nicolas J.B Brunel (2023) Code
Object Pose Estimation with Statistical Guarantees: Conformal Keypoint Detection and Geometric Uncertainty Propagation by Heng Yang and Marco Pavone (NVIDIA, 2023)
A Two-Sample Conditional Distribution Test Using Conformal Prediction and Weighted Rank Sum by Xiaoyu Hu and Jing Lei (Peking University and Carnegie Mellon University, 2023)
Conformalized Semi-Supervised Random Forest For Classification and Abnormality Detection (2023)
How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control Jacopo Teneggi, Matt Tivnan, J Webster Stayman, Jeremias Sulam (John Hopkins University, 2023)
Safe Perception-Based Control under Stochastic Sensor Uncertainty using Conformal Prediction by Shuo Yang, George J. Pappas, Rahul Mangharam, and Lars Lindemann (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series using Linear Complementarity Programming by Matthew Cleaveland, Insup Lee, George J. Pappas†, and Lars Lindemann (University of Pennsylvania, 2023)
Development and Evaluation of Conformal Prediction Methods for QSAR by Yuting Xua, Andy Liawa, Robert P. Sheridan (Merck, 2023)
Multi-Agent Reachability Calibration with Conformal Prediction by Anish Muthali1, Haotian Shen, Sampada Deglurkar, Michael H. Lim, Rebecca Roelofs, Aleksandra Faust, Claire Tomlin (University of Berkeley, 2023)
Conformalized Unconditional Quantile Regression by Ahmed M. Alaa, Zeshan Hussain, David Sontag (Berkeley/MIT, 2023).
Conformal Off-Policy Evaluation in Markov Decision Processes by Daniele Foffano, Alessio Russo and Alexandre Proutiere (KTH, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Quantum Conformal Prediction for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Quantum Machine Learning by Sangwoo Park and Osvaldo Simeone (2023) Code QuantumML 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Probabilistic prediction with locally weighted jackknife predictive system by Di Wang, Ping Wang, Pingping Wang, Cong Wang, Zhen He, Wei Zhang 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Post-selection Inference for Conformal Prediction: Trading off Coverage for Precision by Siddhaarth Sarkar, Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla (2023)
Conformal Regression in Calorie Prediction for Team Jumbo-Visma by Kristian van Kuijk, Mark Dirksen, Christof Seiler (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥slides
Design-based conformal prediction by Jerzy Wieczorek (2023) code 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Inductive Confidence Machines for Regression by Harris Papadopoulos, Kostas Proedrou, Volodya Vovk, and Alex Gammerman (2002) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
Model-Agnostic Nonconformity Functionsfor Conformal Classification by Ulf Johansson, Henrik Linusson, Tuve Löfström, Henrik Boström (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
Impact of model-agnostic nonconformity functions on efficiency of conformal classifiers: an extensive study by Marharyta Aleksandrova, Oleg Chertov (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
Inductive Conformal Prediciton: A Straightforward Introduction with examples in Python by Martim Sousa (2022) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥📚📚📚📚📚
Closing the Loop on Runtime Monitors with Fallback-Safe MPC by Rohan Sinha, Edward Schmerling, and Marco Pavone (Standord, 2023)
Calibrated Explanations: with Uncertainty Information and Counterfactuals by Helena Löfström, Tuwe Löfström, Ulf Johansson, Cecilia S ̈onstr ̈od (2023) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Optimizing Hyperparameters with Conformal Quantile Regression by David Salinas, Jacek Golebiowski, Aaron Klein, Matthias Seeger, Cedric Archambeau (Amazon Science, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Rapid Traversal of Ultralarge Chemical Space using Machine Learning Guided Docking Screens by Andreas Luttens, Israel Cabeza de Vaca, Leonard Sparring, Ulf Norinder, Jens Carlsson (2023) Code Datasets 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting skin sensitizers with confidence — Using conformal prediction to determine applicability domain of GARD by Andy Forreryd, Ulf Norinder, Tim Lindberg, Malin Lindstedt (2018) 📚📚📚📚📚
Confidence-based Prediction of Antibiotic Resistance at the Patient-level Using Transformers by J.S. Inda-Diaz, A. Johnning, M. Hessel, A. Sjo ̈berg, A. Lokrantz, L. Hellda, M. Jirstrand, L. Svensson and E. Kristiansson (Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg/Centre for Antibiotic Resistance Research (CARe), 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Framework based on conformal predictors and power martingales for detection of fixed football matches by I. Zhuk, O. Chertov (2023)
Principal Uncertainty Quantification with Spatial Correlation for Image Restoration Problems by Omer Belhasin, Yaniv Romano, Daniel Freedman, Ehud Rivlin, Michael Elad (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized matrix completion by Yu Gui, Rina Foygel Barber, and Cong Ma (University of Chicago, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guarantees by Isaac Gibbs, John Cherian, Emmanuel Candes (Stanford, 2023) code
Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks by Kexin Huang, Ying Jin, Emmanuel Candes, Jure Leskovec (Stanford, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Federated Conformal Predictors for Distributed Uncertainty Quantification by Charles Lu, Yaodong Yu, Sai Praneeth Karimireddy, Michael I. Jordan, Ramesh Raskar (MIT/Berkeley, 2023) code video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering by Bhawesh Kumar, Charlie Lu, Gauri Gupta, Anil Palepu, David Bellamy, Ramesh Raskar, Andrew Beam (Harvard/MIT, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictive Distribution Trees by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, Henrik Boström (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CONFORMAL PREDICTION WITH PARTIALLY LABELED DATA by Alireza Javanmardi, Yusuf Sale, Paul Hofman, Eyke Hüllermeier (2023)
Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shift by Vincent Plassie, Mehdi Makni, Aleksandr Rubashevskii, Eric Moulines, Maxim Panov (2023)
Conformalizing Machine Translation Evaluation by Chrysoula Zerva, André F. T. Martins (2023)
Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction With Many Classes by Tiffany Ding, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Michael I. Jordan, Ryan J. Tibshirani 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (Berkeley, 2023)
Conformal Prediction Sets for Graph Neural Networks by Soroush Zargarbashi, Simone Antonelli, Aleksandar Bojchevski Code
Conformal link prediction to control the error rate by Ariane Marandon (2023)
JAWS-X: Addressing Efficiency Bottlenecks of Conformal Prediction Under Standard and Feedback Covariate Shift Drew Prinster, Suchi Saria, Anqi Liu (John Hopkins University, 2023) Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Bayesian Optimization with Formal Safety Guarantees via Online Conformal Prediction by Yunchuan Zhang, Sangwoo Park and Osvaldo Simeone (2023)
Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners by Allen Z. Ren, Anushri Dixit, Alexandra Bodrova, Sumeet Singh, Stephen Tu, Noah Brown, Peng Xu, Leila Takayama, Fei Xia, Jake Varley, Zhenjia Xu, Dorsa Sadigh, Andy Zeng, Anirudha Majumdar (Princeton/DeepMind, 2023) Website 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Large scale comparison of QSAR and conformal prediction methods and their applications in drug discovery by Nicolas Bosc, Francis Atkinson, Eloy Felix, Anna Gaulton, Anne Hersey and Andrew R. Leach (Cambridge, 2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Efficiency Comparison of Unstable Transductive and Inductive Conformal Classifiers by Henrik Linusson, Ulf Johansson, Henrik Bostroem, and Tuve Loefstroem (2014)
How to Trust Your Diffusion Model: A Convex Optimization Approach to Conformal Risk Control Code (John Hopkins University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Test Martingale-Based Change-Point Detection for Geospatial Object Detectors by Gang Wang, Zhiying Lu, Ping Wang, Shuo Zhuang and Di Wang (2023)
Plug-in martingales for testing exchangeability on-line by Valentina Fedorova, Alex Gammerman, Ilia Nouretdinov, Vladimir Vovk (Royal Holloway, UK, ICML 2012) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Testing Exchangeability On-Line by Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, UK, ICML 2003) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predictive Inference Is Free with the Jackknife+-after-Bootstrap by Byol Kim, Chen Xu, Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2020) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering by Bhawesh Kumar, Charles Lu, Gauri Gupta, Anil Palepu, David Bellamy, Ramesh Raskar, Andrew Beam (MIT, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
CONFORMAL PREDICTIONS ENHANCED EXPERT-GUIDED MESHING WITH GRAPH NEURAL NETWORKS code by Amin Heyrani Nobari, Justin Rey, Suhas Kodali and Matthew Jones (MIT, 2023) website 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Approximating Full Conformal Prediction at Scale via Influence Functions by Javier Abad, Umang Bhatt, Adrian Weller, Giovanni Cherubin (Cambridge, Alan Turing Institute, ETH, Microsoft Research, 2023) code video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Robust Uncertainty Quantification using Conformalised Monte Carlo Prediction Code by Daniel Bethell, Simos Gerasimou, Radu Calinescu (University of York, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
I do not know! but why?”– Local Model-Agnostic Example-based explanations of reject code by Andre Artelt, Roel Visser and Barbara Hammer (University of Bielefeld, 2023)
Approximating Score-based Explanation Techniques Using Conformal Regression by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostroem, Sofiane Ennadir and Ulf Johansson (KTH/Joenkoeping University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Quantile Risk Control: A Flexible Framework for Bounding the Probability of High-Loss Predictions by Jake C. Snell, Thomas P. Zollo, Zhun Deng, Toniann Pitassi, Richard Zemel (Princeton University, Columbia University, Harvard University, University of Toronto, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Improving Deep Learning-Based Defect Classification in Solar Cells using Conformal Prediction by Vitus Bødker Thomsen, Claire Mantel, Gisele Benatto, Søren Forchhammer (DTU - Technical University of Denmark, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Prediction by Reweighting Nonconformity Scores by Salim I. Amoukou and Nicolas J-B. Brunel and Nicolas J-B. Brunel (University Paris Saclay, Stellantis Paris, Quantmetry Paris, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Copula-based conformal prediction for Multi-Target Regression by Soundouss Messoudi, Sébastien Destercke, Sylvain Rousseau (2021) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effects by Ahmed Alaa, Zaid Ahmad, and Mark van der Laan (2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive conformal classification with noisy labels by Matteo Sesia, Y. X. Rachel Wang†, Xin Tong code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Heteroskedastic conformal regression by NICOLAS DEWOLF, BERNARD DE BAETS AND WILLEM WAEGEMAN (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (UGent, 2023)
Closing the Loop on Runtime Monitors with Fallback-Safe MPC by Rohan Sinha, Edward Schmerling, and Marco Pavone (Stanford, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Temporal Logic Planning using Large Language Models: Knowing When to Do What and When to Ask for Help project website by Jun Wang, Jiaming Tong, Kaiyuan Tan, Yevgeniy Vorobeychik, Yiannis Kantaros (Washington University in St.Louis and University of Zurich, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Simultaneous regression and classification for drug sensitivity prediction using an advanced random forest method code by Kerstin Lenhof, Lea Eckhart, Nico Gerstner, Tim Kehl & Hans-Peter Lenhof (Saarland University, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Quantile Regression by Yaniv Romano, Evan Patterson, Emmanuel J. Candès (Stanford, 2019) [code](Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://github.com/yromano/cqr) project 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Fast nonlinear vector quantile regression by Aviv A. Rosenberg, Sanketh Vedula, Yaniv Romano and Alex M. Bronstein (Technion, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Testing for Outliers with Conformal p-values by Stephen Bates, Emmanuel Candes,Lihua Lei, Yaniv Romano,Matteo Sesia (Berkeley/Stanford/Technion, 2022) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Achieving Risk Control in Online Learning Settings by Shai Feldman, Liran Ringel, Stephen Bates, Yaniv Romano (Technion/Berkeley, 2021) code
Reliable assessment of uncertainty for appliance recognition in NILM using conformal prediction by Lorin Werthen-Brabants, Tom Dhaene, Dirk Deschrijver (Ghent University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Online NoVaS Conformal Volatility Prediction slides by Alejandro Canete (University of Chicago) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2023)
Market Implied Conformal Volatility Intervals slides by Alejandro Canete (University of Chicago) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (2023)
PUNCC: a Python Library for Predictive Uncertainty Calibration and Conformalization slides code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
The Venn-ABERS Testing for Change-Point Detection slides by Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Review of Nonconformity Measures for Conformal Prediction in Regression slides by Yuko Kato, David M.J. Tax, Marco Loog (Delft University of Technology, Radboud University, Nijmegen, Netherlands, 2023)
Approximating Score-based Explanation Techniques Using Conformal Regression slides by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Bostroem, Sofiane Ennadir, Ulf Johansson (KTH, Joenkoeping University, 2023).
Mondrian Predictive Systems for Censored Data slides by Henrik Bostroem, Henrik Linusson, Anders Vesterberg (KTH, Ekkono Solutions AB, Scania CV AB, Sweden 2023).
Evaluating Machine Translation Quality with Conformal Predictive Distributions slides by Patrizio Giovannotti (Royal Holloway, UK) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Confidence Calibration for Systems with Cascaded Predictive Modules by Yunye Gong, Yi Yao, Xiao Lin, Ajay Divakaran, Melinda Gervasio (SRI International, 2023)
TriadNet: Sampling-free predictive intervals for lesional volume in 3D brain MR images by Benjamin Lambert, Florence Forbes, Senan Doyle, and Michel Dojat (Grenoble Institut Neurosciences / Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Pixyl, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictions for longitudinal data by Devesh Batra, Salvatore Mercuri and Raad Khraishi (Data Science & Innovation - NatWest Group, Institute of Finance and Technology, UCL, UK, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Distribution-free risk assessment of regression-based machine learning algorithms by Sukrita Singh, Neeraj Sarna, Yuanyuan Li, Yang Lin, Agni Orfanoudaki (University of Oxford / MunichRe, 2023).
CONFORMAL PREDICTION FOR DEEP CLASSIFIER VIA LABEL RANKING by Jianguo Huang, Huajun Xi, Linjun Zhang, Huaxiu Yao, Yue Qiu, Hongxin Wei (Southern University of Science and Technology, ShanghaiTech University, Rutgers University, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chongqing University) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
On the Expected Size of Conformal Prediction Sets by Guneet S. Dhillon, George Deligiannidis, Tom Rainforth (University of Oxford, 2023) code🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Clinical AI tools must convey predictive uncertainty for each individual patient (2023)🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction via Quantile Regression Calibration for Crop and Weed Classification by Paul Melki, Lionel Bombrun, Boubacar Diallo, Jérôme Dias, Jean-Pierre Da Costa by EXXACT Robotics (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Guaranteed Coverage Prediction Intervals with Gaussian Process Regression by Harris Papadopoulos (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction with missing values by Margaux Zaffran, Aymeric Dieuleveut, Julie Joss, Yaniv Romano (2023) Video summary code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
TRIAGE: Characterizing and auditing training data for improved regression by Nabeel Seedat, Jonathan Crabbé, Zhaozhi Qian, Mihaela van der Schaar (University of Cambridge, 2023) code) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal PID Control for Time Series Prediction by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Emmanuel J. Candes, Ryan J. Tibshirani (Berkeley/Stanford, NeurIPS2023) code
Conformal Prediction for Uncertainty-Aware Planning with Diffusion Dynamics Model by Jiankai Sun, Jiankai_Sun, Yiqi Jiang, Jianing Qiu, Parth Talpur Nobel, Mykel Kochenderfer, Mac Schwager (Staford, Imperial College, 2023)
CoDrug: Conformal Drug Property Prediction with Density Estimation under Covariate Shift by Siddhartha Laghuvarapu, Zhen Lin, Jimeng Sun (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, 2023)
PAC-Bayes Generalization Certificates for Learned Inductive Conformal Prediction Apoorva Sharma, Sushant Veer, Asher Hancock, Heng Yang, Marco Pavone, Anirudha Majumdar (NVIDIA Research, Harvard, Princeton, Stanford 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Sets for Ordinal Classification by Prasenjit Dey, Srujana Merugu, Sivaramakrishnan Kaveri (Amazon, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Beyond Confidence: Reliable Models Should Also Consider Atypicality by Mert Yuksekgonul, Linjun Zhang, James Zou, Carlos Guestrin (Stanford/Rutgers) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
On the Out-of-Distribution Coverage of Combining Split Conformal Prediction and Bayesian Deep Learning by Paul Scemama, Ariel Kapusta (The Mitre Corporation, 2023)
A powerful rank-based correction to multiple testing under positive dependency by Alexander Timans, Christoph-Nikolas Straehle, Kaspar Sakmann, Eric Nalisnick (Bosch AI, 2023)
Prompt Risk Control: A Rigorous Framework for Responsible Deployment of Large Language Models by Thomas P. Zollo, Todd Morrill, Zhun Deng, Jake C. Snell, Toniann Pitassi, Richard Zemel (Columbia University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Risk-Aware and Explainable Framework for Ensuring Guaranteed Coverage in Evolving Hardware Trojan Detection by Rahul Vishwakarma, Amin Rezaei (California State University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty quantification in automated valuation models with locally weighted conformal prediction by Anders Hjort, Gudmund Horn Hermansen, Johan Pensar, Jonathan P. Williams (University of Oslo, North Carolina State University, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Multi-Modal Conformal Prediction Regions by Optimizing Convex Shape Templates by Renukanandan Tumu, Matthew Cleaveland, Rahul Mangharam, George J. Pappas, Lars Lindemann code (University of Pennsylvania, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Verification of Neural Reachable Tubes via Scenario Optimization and Conformal Prediction by Albert Lin, Somil Bansal (University of Southern California, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Kandinsky Conformal Prediction: Efficient Calibration of Image Segmentation Algorithms code by Joren Brunekreef, Eric Marcus, Ray Sheombarsing, Jan-Jakob Sonke, Jonas Teuwen (The Netherlands Cancer Institute, University of Amsterdam) (2023)
Forecasting CPI inflation under economic policy and geo-political uncertainties by Shovon Sengupta, Tanujit Chakraborty, Sunny Kumar Singh (Fidelity Investments, Sorbonne University, BITS Pilani Hyderabad). (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥code
Conformal prediction of option prices by Bastas Joao (University of Lisbon, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Towards Modeling Uncertainties of Self-explaining Neural Networks via Conformal Prediction by Wei Qian, Chenxu Zhao, Yangyi Li, Fenglong Ma, Chao Zhang, Mengdi Huai (Iowa University, Pennsylvania State University, Georgia Institute of Technology (2024).
Greek Proverbs: Computational Spatial Attribution by John Pavlopoulos and Panos Louridas, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece (2024)
Conformal causal inference for cluster randomized trials: model-robust inference without asymptotic approximations by Bingkai Wang, Fan Li and Mengxin (University of Michigan, Yale, University of Pennsylvania)
Distribution-Free Conformal Joint Prediction Regions for Neural Marked Temporal Point Processes by Victor Dheur, Tanguy Bosser, Rafael Izbicki, Souhaib Ben Taieb (Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Brazil and University of Mons, Belgium, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predicting Random Walks and a Data-Splitting Prediction Region by Mulubrhan G. Haile, Lingling Zhang, and David J. Olive (Westminster College, University of Albany, Southern Illinois University)
[Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification](Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification](https://openreview.net/forum?id=eKrYMGpXVY) by Etash Guha, Thomas Moellenhoff, Eugene Ndiaye, Shlok Natarajan (RIKEN Center for AI Project Tokyo, Japan, Salesforce, Apple, 2024)
Conformal Approach To Gaussian Process Surrogate Evaluation With Coverage Guarantees by Edgar Jaber, Vincent Blot, Nicolas Brunel, Vincent Chabridon, Emmanuel Remy, Bertrand Iooss, Didier Lucor, Mathilde Mougeot, Alessandro Leite (EDF R&D, Quantmetry, Paris-Saclay University, ENSIIE, Institut de Math ́ematiques de Toulouse, TAU, INRIA, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Integrating Uncertainty Awareness into Conformalized Quantile Regression code by Raphael Rossellini, Rina Foygel Barber and Rebecca Willett (University of Chicago, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Sets Improve Human Decision Making by Jesse C. Cresswell, Yi Sui, Bhargava Kumar, Noel Vouitsis (Layer 6 AI, TD Securities, 2024)
Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantification by Fanghua Ye, Mingming Yang, Jianhui Pang, Longyue Wang, Derek F. Wong, Emine Yilmaz, Shuming Shi, Zhaopeng Tu (Tencent AI Lab, University College London, University of Macau 2024).
ACHO: Adaptive Conformal Hyperparameter Optimization by Ricardo Doyle (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 code
Characterizing Water Composition with an Autonomous Robotic Team Employing Comprehensive In-Situ Sensing, Hyperspectral Imaging, Machine Learning, and Conformal Prediction by John Waczak, Adam Aker, Lakitha O. H. Wijeratne, Shawhin Talebi, Bharana Fernando, Prabuddha Hathurusinghe, Mazhar Iqbal, David Schaefer, David J. Lary (University of Texas Dallas, 2024)
Non-Exchangeable Conformal Language Generation with Nearest Neighbors by Dennis Ulmer, Chrysoula Zerva, André F.T. Martins (IT University of Copenhagen, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Group-Weighted Conformal Prediction by Aabesh Bhattacharyya, Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2024)
Conformal Monte Carlo Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effects by Jef Jonkers, Jarne Verhaeghe, Glenn Van Wallendael, Luc Duchateau, Sofie Van Hoecke (Ghent University, 2024) code
Bellman Conformal Inference: Calibrating Prediction Intervals For Time Series by Zitong Yang, Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
TISSUE (Transcript Imputation with Spatial Single-cell Uncertainty Estimation) by James Zou, Eric Sun, Rong Ma, Anne Brunet, and Paloma Navarro Negredo (Stanford, Harvard, 2024) code
Conformal Predictive Programming for Chance Constrained Optimization by Yiqi Zhao, Xinyi Yu, Jyotirmoy V. Deshmukh and Lars Lindemann (University of Southern California. 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Introspective Planning: Guiding Language-Enabled Agents to Refine Their Own Uncertainty by Kaiqu Liang, Zixu Zhang, Jaime Fernandez Fisac(Princeton, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Regression Trees for Fast and Adaptive Prediction Intervals by Luben M. C. Cabezasa, Mateus P. Ottoa, Rafael Izbicki, Rafael B. Sternc (Federal University of São Carlos, University of São Paulo,2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Self-Consistent Conformal Prediction by Lars van der Laan, Ahmed M. Alaa (University of Southern California, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction via Regression-as-Classification by Etash Guha, Shlok Natarajan, Thomas Möllenhoff, Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan, Eugene Ndiaye (RIKEN AIP, Salesforce, Apple, SambaNova Systems, 2023) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Safe Task Planning for Language-Instructed Multi-Robot Systems using Conformal Prediction by Jun Wang, Guocheng He, and Yiannis Kantaros (Washington University in St Louis, 2024).
Conformalized-DeepONet: A Distribution-Free Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Operator Networks by Christian Moya, Amirhossein Mollaali, Zecheng Zhang, Lu Lu, Guang Lin (Purdue University, Florida State University, Yale, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
API Is Enough: Conformal Prediction for Large Language Models Without Logit-Access by Jiayuan Su, Jing Luo, Hongwei Wang, Lu Cheng (Zhejiang University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Institute, University of Illinois Chicago, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Language Modeling) by Victor Quach, Adam Fisch, Tal Schuster, Adam Yala, Jae Ho Sohn, Tommi S. Jaakkola, Regina Barzilay (MIT, Berkeley, Google Research, UC San Francisco, 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A Safety-Critical Framework for UGVs in Complex Environments: A Data-Driven Discrepancy-Aware Approach by Skylar X. Wei, Lu Gan, Joel W. Burdick (California Institute of Technology,Georgia Institute of Technology, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets by Chen Xu, Hanyang Jiang, and Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction of molecule-induced cancer cell growth inhibition challenged by strong distribution shifts by Saiveth Hernandez-Hernandez, Qianrong Guo, Pedro Ballester (Imperial College, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Robust Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift via Physics-Informed Structural Causal Model by Rui Xu, Yue Sun, Chao Chen, Parv Venkitasubramaniam, Sihong (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Lehigh University, Bethlehem, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal link prediction for false discovery rate control by Ariane Marandon (Sorbonne Université, 2024)
Risk-Calibrated Human-Robot Interaction via Set-Valued Intent Prediction by Justin Lidard, Ariel Bachman, Bryan Boateng, Anirudha Majumdar (Princeton, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Predictive Inference in Multi-environment Scenarios by John C. Duchi, Suyash Gupta, Kuanhao Jiang, Pragya Sur (Stanford, Harvard, Amazon, 2024)
Conformal online model aggregation by Matteo Gasparin, Aaditya Ramdas (Carnegie Mellon University, University of Padova, 2024)
Conformal Intent Classification and Clarification for Fast and Accurate Intent Recognition by Floris den Hengst, Ralf Wolter, Patrick Altmeyer, Arda Kaygan (University of Amsterdam, ING, 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Coverage-Guaranteed Prediction Sets for Out-of-Distribution Data by Xin Zou, Weiwei Liu (Wuhan University. 2024)
Conformal Prediction for Stochastic Decision-Making of PV Power in Electricity Markets by Yvet Renkema, Nico Brinkel & Tarek Alskaif (Wageningen University, Utrecht University, 2024). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
FDR control and FDP bounds for conformal link prediction by Gilles Blanchard, Guillermo Durand, Ariane Marandon-Carlhian, Romain Périer (University of Paris-Saclay, The Allan Turing Institute).
Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices: Diversity matters by Arkadiusz Lipiecki, Bartosz Uniejewski, Rafał Weron (Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 2024)
Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets by Christopher Katha, Florian Ziel (University Duisburg-Essen, 2020)
On-line conformalized neural networks ensembles for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices by Alessandro Brusaferria, Andrea Ballarinoa, Luigi Grossib, Fabrizio Laurini (CNR, Institute of Intelligent Industrial Technologies and Systems for Advanced Manufacturing, Universoty of Parma 2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets by Christopher Katha, Florian Ziel (University Duisburg-Essen, 2020)
A novel day-ahead regional and probabilistic wind power forecasting framework using deep CNNs and conformalized regression forests by Jef Jonkers, Diego Nieves Avendano, Glenn Van Wallendael, Sofie Van Hoecke (Ghent University, 2024)
CONFLARE: CONFormal LArge language model REtrieval by Pouria Rouzrokh, Shahriar Faghani, Cooper Gamble, Moein Shariatnia, Bradley J. Erickson (Mayo Clinic Artificial Intelligence Laboratory; Orthopedic Surgery Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Mayo Clinic, MN, USA; Tehran University of Medical Sciences) code video 🔥🔥🔥🔥
WaveCatBoost for Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Air Quality Data by Jintu Borah, Tanujit Chakraborty, Md. Shahrul Md. Nadzir, Mylene G. Cayetano, Shubhankar Majumdar (Sorbonne University, NIT Meghalaya, Universiti Kebangsaan, University of Philippines, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Pricing Catastrophe Bonds --- a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach by Xiaowei Chen, Hong Li, Yufan Lu, Rui Zhou (Nankai University, University of Guelph, The University of Melbourne, 2024)
Adaptive Conformal Prediction Intervals Using Data-Dependent Weights With Application to Seismic Response Prediction by Parisa Hajibabaee; Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki; Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili (Parisa Hajibabaee; Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki; Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili (Florida Polytechnic University, University of Colorado Denver, University of Maryland, 2024)
Ensemble Predictors: Possibilistic Combination of Conformal Predictors for Multivariate Time Series Classification
Enhancing the reliability of probabilistic PV power forecasts using conformal prediction by Yvet Renkema, Lennard Visser, Tarek AlSkaif (Wageningen University, Utrecht University, 2024)
Random Projection Ensemble Conformal Prediction for High-Dimensional Classification by Xiaoyu Qian, Jinru Wu, Ligong Wei, Youwu Lin )Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guangxi Academy of Sciences, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, 2024)
Conformal Predictive Systems Under Covariate Shift by Jef Jonkers, Glenn Van Wallendael, Luc Duchateau, Sofie Van Hoecke (hent University, Belgium) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Metric-guided Image Reconstruction Bounds via Conformal Prediction by Matt Y Cheung, Tucker J Netherton, Laurence E Court, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Guha Balakrishnan (The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Cente, 2024)
Training-Conditional Coverage Bounds for Uniformly Stable Learning Algorithms by Mehrdad Pournaderi, Yu Xiang (University of Utah, 2024)
Safe POMDP Online Planning among Dynamic Agents via Adaptive Conformal Prediction by Shili Sheng, Pian Yu, David Parker, Marta Kwiatkowska, Lu Feng (University of Oxford, 2024)
Conformal Prediction of Motion Control Performance for an Automated Vehicle in Presence of Actuator Degradations and Failures by Richard Schubert, Marvin Loba, Jasper Sünnemann, Torben Stolte, Markus Maurer (TU Braunschweig, 2024)
Towards Robust Ferrous Scrap Material Classification with Deep Learning and Conformal Prediction by Paulo Henrique dos Santos, Valéria de Carvalho Santos, Eduardo José da Silva Luz (Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto e Instituto Tecnol´ogico Vale, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Brazil 🇧🇷, 2024)
From Data Imputation to Data Cleaning — Automated Cleaning of Tabular Data Improves Downstream Predictive Performance by Sebastian Jäger, Felix Biessmann (Berlin University of Applied Sciences and Technology (BHT), Einstein Center Digital Future 🇩🇪, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Online Calibrated and Conformal Prediction Improves Bayesian Optimization Shachi Deshpande, Charles Marx, Volodymyr Kuleshov (Cornell University, Stanford, 🇺🇸, 2024)
Evaluating the Utility of Conformal Prediction Sets for AI-Advised Image Labeling by Dongping Zhang, Angelos Chatzimparmpas, Negar Kamali, Jessica Hullman (Northwestern University, 🇺🇸, 2024) code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Regression with Split-Jackknife+ Scores by Nicolas Deutschmann, Mattia Rigotti, María Rodríguez Martínez (IBM Research, 2023)
Comparison of Scaling Methods to Obtain Calibrated Probabilities of Activity for Protein–Ligand Predictions by Lewis H. Mervin, Avid M. Afzal, Ola Engkvist, and Andreas Bender (2020)

Papers Time Series

Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Python Code Video Video ICML2021
Conformal prediction set for time-series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) Python Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Time-Series Forecasting by Kamile Stankeviciu te and Ahmed M. Alaa (2021) Video NeurIPS2021 Video TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting by Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchi, Stian Norman Anfinsen (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series by Margaux Zaffran, Aymeric Dieuleveut, Olivier Fe ́ron, Yannig Goude, and Julie Josse (2022) Python Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Video
Conformalized Online Learning: Online Calibration Without a Holdout Set by Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates and Yaniv Romano (2022). TIME SERIES 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Code
Conformal Prediction with Temporal Quantile Adjustments by Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Jimeng Sun (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Methods for Predictive Machine Learning with Dependent Data by Victor Chernozhukov (MIT), Kaspar Wuethrich (University of California, San Diego) and Yinchu Zhu (University of Oregon) (2018) Video
Distributional Conformal Prediction by Chernozhukov (MIT), Kaspar Wuethrich (University of California, San Diego) and Yinchu Zhu (University of Oregon) (2022)
Distribution-Free Prediction Bands for Multivariate Functional Time Series: an Application to the Italian Gas Market by Jacopo Diquigiovanni (University of Padua) Matteo Fontana (Joint Research Centre - European Commission) Simone Vantini (Politecnico di Milano) (2021)
CODiT: Conformal Out-of-Distribution Detection in Time- Series Data by Ramneet Kaur et.al., Unibersity of Pensylvania (2022). Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
A General Framework For Multi-step Ahead Adaptive Conformal Heteroscedastic Time Series Forecasting by Martim Sousa, Ana Maria Tomé, University of Aveiro (2022) Code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets by Christopher Kath and Florian Ziel (2020)
Robust Gas Demand Forecasting With Conformal Prediction by Mouhcine Mendil, Luca Mossina, Marc Nabhan, Kevin Pasini (2022)
Conformal Prediction Bands for Two-Dimensional Functional Time Series by Niccolo` Ajroldia, Jacopo Diquigiovannib, Matteo Fontanac, Simone Vantinia (2022)
Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting by Sophia Sun, Rose Yu (University of California, San Diego, 2022) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
[Conformal prediction set for time-series](Conformal prediction set for time-series) by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) Code
Amazon Fortuna
Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning by Aadyot Bhatnagar, Huan Wang, Caiming Xiong, Yu Bai (2023) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Time Series with Modern Hopfield Networks by Andreas Auer, Martin Gauch, Daniel Klotz, Sepp Hochreiter (Johannes Kepler University, Linz, 2023) code blogpost TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Predictions for longitudinal data by Devesh Batra, Salvatore Mercuri and Raad Khraishi (Data Science & Innovation - NatWest Group, Institute of Finance and Technology, UCL, UK, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal PID Control for Time Series Prediction by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Emmanuel J. Candes, Ryan J. Tibshirani (Berkeley/Stanford, NeurIPS2023) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Distribution-Free Conformal Joint Prediction Regions for Neural Marked Temporal Point Processes by Victor Dheur, Tanguy Bosser, Rafael Izbicki, Souhaib Ben Taieb (Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Brazil and University of Mons, Belgium, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Bellman Conformal Inference: Calibrating Prediction Intervals For Time Series by Zitong Yang, Emmanuel Candès, Lihua Lei (Stanford, 2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets by Chen Xu, Hanyang Jiang, and Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2024) code TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized predictive simulations for univariate time series by Thierry Moudiki (2024)

Presentation Slides

Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction, Seattle Artificial Intelligence Workshops Meetup by Valery Manokhin, 2023 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction by Valery Manokhin, 2022 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Adaptive Conformal Anomaly Detection for Time-series by Evgeny Burnaev, Alexander Bernstein, Vlad Ishimtsev and Ivan Nazarov (Skoltech, Moscow, Russia, 2017)
Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction by Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valery Manokhin, Min-ge Xie, Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (Royal Holloway, University of London Rutgers University, 2017)
What Can Conformal Inference Offer to Statistics? by Lihua Lei, Stanford University
Conformal Regressors and Predictive Systems – a Gentle Introduction by Henrik Bostroem (KTH, Sweden, 2022)
Applications of Conformal Predictors by Ernst Ahlberg and Lars Carlsson (Stena Line, 2022)
crepes: a Python Package for Conformal Regressors and Predictive Systems by Henrik Bostroem (KTH, Sweden, 2022)
Assessing Explanation Quality by Venn Prediction by Amr Alkhatib, Henrik Boström and Ulf Johansson (2022)
Well-Calibrated Rule Extractors by Ulf Johansson, Tuwe Löfström, Niclas Ståhl (2022)
[Calibration of Natural Language Understanding Models with Venn-ABERS Predictors](Calibration of Natural Language Understanding Models with Venn-ABERS Predictors](https://copa-conference.com/presentations/patrizio.pdf) by Patrizio Giovannotti (2022)
Reinforcement Learning Prediction Intervals with Guaranteed Fidelity by Thomas Dietterich (University of Oregon, 2022)
Conformal Prediction beyond exchangeability by Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago, 2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Split conformal prediction for dependant data by Roberto I. Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos and João Vitor Romano (2022)
Conformal prediction of small-molecule drug resistance in cancer cell lines by Saiveth Hernandez-Hernandez, Sachin Vishwakarma and Pedro Ballester
Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (Georgia Tech, 2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting by Sophia Sun, Rose Yu (University of California, San Diego, 2022)
Uncertainty estimation in NLP by Tal Schuster, Adam Fisch (MIT, 2022)
Conformal Prediction: an Introduction by Leo Andeol (2022)
Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series by Margaux Zaffran (ICML,2021)
EnbPI poster by Chen Xu, Yao Xie (2021)
Machine Learning for Probabilistic Prediction by Valery Manokhin (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Inference with Tidymodels by Max Kuhn (posit conference 2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Graceful handling of large imbalanced datasets using Conformal Prediction by Ulf Norinder and Fredrik Svensson 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Quantile Regression by Yaniv Romano, Evan Patterson, Emmanuel J. Candès (Stanford, 2019)
Leveraging Conformal Prediction for Calibrated Probabilistic Time Series Forecasts to Accelerate the Renewable Energy Transition by Inge van den Ende (Dexter Energy, 2023). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Researchers

Vladimir Vovk, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
Alexander Gammerman, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
Glenn Shafer, Rutgers University, USA
Emmanuel Candès, Stanford, USA
Ryan Tibshiriani, Carnegie Mellon, USA
Yaniv Romano, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology
Michael I. Jordan, Berkeley, USA
Jitendra Malik, Berkeley, USA
Anastasios Angelopoulos, Berkeley, USA
Lihua Lei, Stanford, USA
Henrik Boström, KTH, Sweden
Ulf Johansson, Jönköping University, Sweden
Henrik Linusson, University of Borås, Sweden
Harris Papadopoulos, Frederick University, Cyprus
Vladimir V'yugin, Institute for Information Transmission Problems (IITP), Russia
Evgeny Burnaev, Skoltech, Russia
Aaditya Ramdas, Carnegie Mellon, USA
Benjamin LeRoy, Carnegie Mellon, USA
Victor Chernozhukov, MIT, USA
Ulf Norinder, Stockholm University, Sweden
Ola Spjuth, Uppsala University, Sweden
Ilia Nouretdinov, Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
Matteo Fontana, Royal Holloway, University of London, United Kingdom
Yao Xie, Georgia Institute of Technology
Zhimeo Ren, University of Chicago
Rafael Izbicki, Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar) Brazil
Rina Foygel Barber University of Chicago
Matteo Sesia University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business
Simone Vantini MOX - Department of Mathematics, Politecnico di Milano

Articles

Measuring Models' Uncertainty: Conformal Prediction by Leo Dreyfus-Schmidt (Dataiku, 2020). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Neural Regression Model by Pranab Ghosh (2021). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to Handle Uncertainty in Forecasts by Michael Berk (2021)
How to Add Uncertainty Estimation to your Models with Conformal Prediction by Zachary Warnes (2021)
nonconformist: An easy way to estimate prediction intervals by Maria Jesus Ugarte (2021).
Detecting Weird Data: Conformal Anomaly Detection by Matthew Burruss (2020).
“MAPIE” Explained Exactly How You Wished Someone Explained to You by Samuele Mazzanti (2022). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
With MAPIE, uncertainties are back in machine learning by Vianney Taquet (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to Predict Risk-Proportional Intervals with Conformal Quantile Regression by Samuele Mazzanti (2022). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Stanford statisticians and Washington Post data scientists build more honest prediction models Stanford (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to Detect Anomalies — state-of-the-art methods using Conformal Prediction by Valery Manokhin (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to calibrate your classifier in an intelligent way by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction forecasting with MAPIE by Valery Manokhin (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to predict full probability distribution using machine learning Conformal Predictive Distributions by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to predict quantiles in a more intelligent way (or ‘Bye-bye quantile regression, hello Conformal Quantile Regression by Valery Manokhin (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part I - Introduction by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
Getting predictions intervals with conformal inference by Rajiv Shah (2022)
How to Conformalize a Deep Image Classifier by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
Time Series Forecasting with Conformal Prediction Intervals: Scikit-Learn is All you Need by Marco Cerliani (2022)
Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part II - How to conformalize a deep image classifier by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part III - Prediction intervals for any regression model by Patrick Altmeyer (2022)
Probabilistic Forecasting with Conformal Prediction and NeuralProphet by Valery Manokhin (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Time Series Forecasting with Conformal Prediction Intervals: Scikit-Learn is All you Need by Marco Cerliani (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
TQA: Creating Valid Prediction Intervals for Cross-sectional Time Series Regression by Zhen Lin (UIUC, NeurIPS’22 paper) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction: A Critic to Predictive Models (2023)
Multi-horizon Probabilistic Forecasting with Conformal Prediction and NeuralProphet by Valery Manokhin TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Putting clear bounds on uncertainty (MIT, 2023)
Conformal prediction theory explained by Artem Ryasik (2023)
Easy Distribution-Free Conformal Intervals for Time Series by Michael Keith (2023)
Another (Conformal) Way to Predict Probability Distributions by Harrison Hoffman (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
[How to use full (transductive) Conformal Prediction])(https://valeman.medium.com/how-to-use-full-transductive-conformal-prediction-7ed54dc6b72b) by Valery Manokhin (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Regression (using KNIME) by Artem Ryasik (2023)
Dynamic Conformal Intervals for any Time Series Model by Michael Keith (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Hitting Time Forecasting: The Other Way for Time Series Probabilistic Forecasting by Marco Cerliani (2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Series of Medium articles about Conformal Prediciton (in Portuguese) by Gustavo Bruschi (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Stanford statisticians and Washington Post data scientists build more honest prediction models Code 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Jackknife+ — a Swiss knife of Conformal Prediction for regression by Valeriy Manokhin (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Clinical AI tools must convey predictive uncertainty for each individual patient (2023)🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
How to use Conformal Prediction by Yannick Kälber (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Model Diagnostics: Prediction Uncertainty by PiML team, Wells Fargo (2023).
Make any predictor uncertainty-aware via conformal prediction by Lorenzo Maggi (2023)
Conformal predictive systems - A hands-on codeless example with KNIME by Artem Ryasik (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction for classification - A hands-on codeless example with KNIME by Artem Ryasik (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized quantile regression by Lorenzo Maggi (2024)
Leveraging conformal prediction in Python to accelerate the renewable energy transition by Inge van den Ende (2024)
Fifty (four, actually) shades of conformal prediction by Lorenzo Maggi (2024)
Use case adapted prediction intervals by means of conformal predictions and a custom non conformity score by Arnaud Capitaine (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Prediction Intervals using Conformalized Quantile Regression by Vincent Wauters (2024).
Conformalized Quantile Regression for Time Series Probabilistic Forecasting by Chris Kuo (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Uncertainty Quantification and Why You Should Care by Jonte Dancker (2024)

Kaggle

Kaggle Notebook showcasing Conformal Predictive Distributions on Playground Series Season 3, Episode 1 (California Housing data) competition by Valeriy Manokhin (2022)
Kaggle Notebook showcasing Venn-ABERs Conformal Prediction on Playground Series Season 3, Episode 2 (Stroke prediction) competition by Valeriy Manokhin (2022)
Regression prediction intervals with MAPIE by Carl McBride Ellis (2022)
Lgbm & Mapie & birth weight, oh my! by Patrick Blackwill (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Classifier calibration using Venn-ABERS by Carl McBride Ellis (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Websites

Main website with research from Prof. Vladimir (Volodya) Vovk 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction - Prediction with guaranteed performance Royal Holloway, United Kingdom
A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification by Anastasios N. Angelopoulos 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Reliable Predictive Inference by Yaniv Romano 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Twitter

Title: What Can Conformal Inference Offer to Statistics? by Lihua Lei, Stanford, 2022
Conformalized survival analysis by Lihua Lei, Stanford, 2021
Conformal Risk Control by Anastasious Angelopolous, Berkeley, 2022
Stable Conformal Prediction Sets by Eugene Ndiaye (Georgia Tech, 2022)
Machine learning sucks at uncertainty quantification. But there is a solution that almost sounds too good to be true: conformal prediction by Cristoph Molnar (2022).
How to correctly, yet efficiently model the uncertainty on predictions by Nico Wolf (2022)
Top 10 Github libraries for Conformal Prediction by Valeriy Manokhin (2022)
Robots That Ask For Help by Allen Z. Ren (2023) 🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

TikTok

Getting prediction intervals with conformal prediction by Rajiv Shah (Hugging Face,2022)
Why you want prediction intervals instead of point predictions by Rajiv Shah (Hugging Face,2022)
It’s important to make sure your model is well calibrated by Rajiv Shah (Hugging Face,2022)

Conferences & Workshops

11th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications
IFDS Workshop on Conformal Prediction 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Workshop on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification at ICML 2022 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Workshop on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification at ICML 2021🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
10th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
9th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
8th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
7th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
6th Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Python

Conformal Tights - A scikit-learn meta-estimator that adds conformal prediction of coherent quantiles and intervals to any scikit-learn regressor by Laurent Sorber (Radix AI) (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
'Crêpes' - Conformal regressors and predictive systems by Henrik Boström (2021) Paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Presentation by Henrik Bostroem (KTH, Sweden, 2022)
Python implementation of binary and multi-class Venn-ABERS calibration by Ivan Petej (2023) [Paper] 🔥🔥🔥🔥
TorchCP - A library for conformal prediction 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Puncc (Predictive uncertainty calibration and conformalization) paper slides 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nixtla mlforecast TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Nixtla statsforecast TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Impact by Tyler Blume (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 9.MAPIE - Model Agnostic Prediction Interval Estimator by Quantmetry team (2021) Paper slides MAPIE has serious gaps in binary classifications and not recommended for binary classification problems. 10.Nonconformist by Henrik Linusson (2015) 🚨 The library does not seem to be actively maintained
Venn-ABERS Predictor by Paolo Toccaceli (2019) Paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Quantile Regression by Yaniv Romano (2019) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Orange3 Conformal Prediction Multi-class-probabilistic-classification using Venn-ABERS (Conformal) prediction by Valery Manokhin (Royal Holloway, 2022)
Copula Conformal Multi Target Regression by Soundouss Messoudi (2021)
Conformal Histogram Regression: efficient conformity scores for non-parametric regression problems by Mateo Sesia and Yaniv Romano (NeurIPS 2021). 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized density- and distance-based anomaly detection in time-series data (KNN-CAD) by Evgeny Burnaev, Vladislav Ishimtsev (2016). Top #3 winning solution in Numenta competition 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal time-series forecasting by Kamile ̇ Stankeviciute (Cambridge, NeurIPS 2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
EnbPI by Chen Xu (2021) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Paper
Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series](https://proceedings.mlr.press/v162/zaffran22a/zaffran22a.pdf) by Margaux Zaffran, Aymeric Dieuleveut, Olivier Fe ́ron, Yannig Goude, and Julie Josse (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Video Code
Conformal learning from scratch by Marharyta Aleksandrova (2021)
Ensemble Conformalized Quantile Regression for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Vilde Jensen, Filippo Maria Bianchi and Stian Norman Anfinsen (2022) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformalized Online Learning: Online Calibration Without a Holdout Set by Shai Feldman, Stephen Bates and Yaniv Romano (2022). TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
PySloth - Python package for Probabilistic Prediction by Valery Manokhin 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction in KNIME by Tuwe Löfström and Redfield AB (2022)
Nonconformist by Henrik Linusson (2015) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
SKTime by Franz Kiraly (2022)
NeuralProphet (2022) 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
River 2022
TorchUQ (2022)
https://github.com/mikekeith52/scalecast TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
plot_utils - Plotting library for conformal prediction metrics, intended to facilitate fast testing in e.g. notebooks 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
calibrated-explanations - Calibrated Explanations for Machine Learning Models using Venn-Abers and Conformal Predictive Systems by Helena Löfström (2023)
Conformers - Unofficial Conformal Language Modelling library 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Conformal Predictions from Scratch in Numpy by Jones Wacker (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Prediction for Digital Soil Mapping by Nafiseh Kakhani (2023)
conformal-prediction-jan2024 - PyLadies Amsterdam by Inge van den Ende (2024) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
MFLES - Gradient Boosted Decomposition for time series forecasting by Tyler Blume (2024) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
confopt - A Library for Conformal Hyperparameter Tuning by Ricardo Doyle (2024) paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
[crepes-weighted Extension of crepes package, to enable weighted conformal prediction and conformal predictive systems that can handle covariate shifts](https://github.com/predict-idlab/crepes-weighted 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

R

Conformal Prediction ih tidymodels by Max Kuhn (Posit/RStudio, 2023) video 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Modeltime (2023) by Matt Dancho (Business Science, 2023) TIME SERIES 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal prediction for 80+ classes of R models with the marginaleffects package by Vincent Arel-Bundock (2023) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
AdaptiveConformal (2023) paper 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal Inference R Project maintained by Ryan Tibshirani (2016) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Prediction Bands by Rafael Izbicki and Benjamin LeRoy (2019)
Conformal: an R package to calculate prediction errors in the conformal prediction framework by Isidro Cortes, 2019
Online Time Series Anomaly Detectors by Alaine Iturria, 2021 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
piRF - Prediction Intervals for Random Forests by Chancellor Johnstone and Haozhe Zhang (2019)
conformalClassification: Transductive and Inductive Conformal Predictions for Classification Problems by Niharika Gauraha and Ola Spjuth (2019)
R Package for Spatial Conformal Prediction
conformalInference.multi: Conformal Inference Tools for Regression with Multivariate Response by Jacopo Diquigiovanni, Matteo Fontana, Aldo Solari, Simone Vantini, Paolo Vergottini, Ryan Tibshirani (2021) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Conformal: an R package to calculate prediction errors in the conformal prediction framework by Isidro Cortes, 2019
cfsurvival - An R package that implements the conformalized survival analysis methodology Paper
ClusTorus: An R Package for Prediction and Clustering on the Torus by Conformal Prediction by Seungki Hong and Sungkyu Jung (2022)
conformal glm - conformal prediction for generalized linear regression models by Daniel Eck (2019)
caretForecast - Conformal Time Series Forecasting Using State of Art Machine Learning Algorithms
Localized Conformal Prediction - LCP
conformalbayes - Jackknife(+) Predictive Intervals for Bayesian Models (2022)
conformal.fd Conformal inference prediction regions for Multiple Functional response regression (2021)

Julia

ConformalPrediction.jl by Patrick Altmeyer (2022) Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part I - Introduction Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part II - How to conformalize a deep image classifier Article - Conformal Prediction in Julia, Part III - Prediction intervals for any regression model
RandomForest by Henrik Boström (2017) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Other Languages

LibCP -- A Library for Conformal Prediction 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
An Implementation of Venn-ABERS predictor 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
LibVM -- A Library for Venn Machine
Scala-CP by Marco Capuccini (2017)' 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (see tutorial section 'Conformal Prediction in Spark')

AI platforms

Conformal Prediction in Knime Presentation 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Data Robot - Prediction Intervals via Conformal Inference
AWS Fortuna by Amazon, (2022) 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Microsoft Azure

Patents

Rahul Vishwakarma, Method and system for reliably forecasting storage disk failure. US 2021/0034450 A1 United States Patent and Trademark Office, Feb 2021
Rahul Vishwakarma, Analyzing Time Series Data for Sets of Devices Using Machine Learning Techniques. US 2021/0241929 A1 United States Patent and Trademark Office, Aug 2021
Rahul Vishwakarma, System and method for prioritizing and preventing backup failures. US 2021/0374568 A1 United States Patent and Trademark Office, Dec 2021

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Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series.pdf		Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series.pdf
Applied_Conformal_Prediction_course.png		Applied_Conformal_Prediction_course.png
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BScThesis_DerckPrinzhorn.pdf		BScThesis_DerckPrinzhorn.pdf
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