Starting in late February 2020, we have been conducting weekly surveys that asked a group of infectious disease modeling researchers to assess their collective expert opinion on the trajectory of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US.
An expert was defined as a researcher who has spent a substantial amount of time in their professional career designing, building, and/or interpreting models to explain and understand infectious disease dynamics and/or the associated policy implications in human populations.
We are working on a comprehensive write-up with methods and further analysis of individual-level responses.
A Word document showing the questions asked is available here. A dataset with the "consensus distributions" combined across all experts for select questions is available here.
| id | dates conducted | summary | press |
|---|---|---|---|
| Survey 1 | Feb 18-20, 2020 | - | - |
| Survey 2 | Feb 24-25 | - | - |
| Survey 3 | Mar 02-03 | Survey3 | - |
| Survey 4 | Mar 09-10 | Survey4 | - |
| Survey 5 | Mar 16-17 | Survey5 | FiveThirtyEight & Rolling Stone |
| Survey 6 | Mar 23-24 | Survey6 | FiveThirtyEight |
| Survey 7 | Mar 30-31 | Survey7 | FiveThirtyEight & The Economist |
| Survey 8 | Apr 06-07 | Survey8 | FiveThirtyEight & Vox |
| Survey 9 | Apr 13-14 | Survey9 | FiveThirtyEight |
| Survey 10 | Apr 20-21 | Survey10 | Science News |
| Survey 11 | Apr 27-28 | Survey11 | FiveThirtyEight |
| Survey 12 | May 4-5 | Survey12 | FiveThirtyEight |
| Survey 13 | May 11-12 | Survey13 |
An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States
tom mcandrew (mcandrew@lehigh.edu) and Nicholas G. Reich (nick@schoolph.umass.edu) Lehigh University College of Health Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts - Amherst