Data analysis and modeling of the dynamics of COVID-19

Marco Arieli Herrera-Valdez

Laboratorio de Fisiología de Sistemas, Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM

1. Epidemic dynamics in different countries. Estimations of the the starting date, first wave peaks and relative contributions of subpopulations with different clinical profiles to the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico

(Herrera-Nolasco CI, Herrera-Valdez MA, In preparation)

Examples:

(a) Estimating the starting time and peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Mexico

(b) Phase portrait dynamics in different countries from global COVID-19 data

2. Fatality associated to reported cases during the first weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic

(Herrera-Nolasco CI, Herrera-McKiernan AJ, Herrera-McKiernan EA, O'Reilly-Regueiro E, Herrera-Valdez MA, In preparation)

Examples:

(a) Delay and CFR analysis of case, death, and recovery reports from around the world. Illustrating figures.

• Delays between case reports, and between first death and first recovery with respect to the first report in all countries

Inference of death cases for Mexico

• Estimation of death cases in Mexico for different age groups with a sub report factor of 10

(Created: MAHV, 20200301. Last modified: MAHV, 20200426)