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Projecting primary care shortages secondary to the COVID-19 pandemic

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Purpose

Since people over age 60 are at increased risk for severe disease course and death secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection, primary care physicians over age 60 are more likely to see fewer patients than they did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This could be a result of infection, early retirement, or a transient decrease during transitions to virtual appointments. This project aims to identify which states in the U.S. are at highest risk of experiencing primary care shortages by exploring age distributions and COVID-19 pandemic spread in each U.S. state. The results could guide targeted funding and training of future primary care physicians in specific regions.

Visualization


Each state is shaded by the number of primary care physicians over age 60 practicing there, corresponding to the legend titled "At-risk". Each state also has a single red dot whose radius corresponds to the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 in that state as of 4 June 2020, corresponding to the legend titled "Current".

Data dictionary

  • generate.R: R script that generates a U.S. bubble chloropleth.
  • covid-cases.csv: number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in all U.S. states, as of 4 June 2020.
  • geo-data.csv: state-level geographical data.
  • ihme-projection.csv: projected number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in all U.S. states by 1 October 2020.
  • state-data.csv: state-level AAMC workforce data.

For more details, see the data dictionary.

Problems?

Please submit questions, comments, suggestions, and bug reports by opening an issue here.

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Data and code supporting research project into potential primary care shortages as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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