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Renamed abstract and cleaned susceptibility section
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lunarmouse committed May 19, 2023
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Expand Up @@ -7,12 +7,8 @@ We suggest that the high immune evasive sceanrio (50% per year) produced a subst
## Number/type of immune classes considered
We considered a single immune class with continuous waning level (modeled as an exponentially decay function with time) instead of discrete full/partial immune classes.
## Initial distribution of susceptibility (if available)
### Proportion of people that were infected with Omicron
Not explicitly modeled. However, the proportion can be estimated from cumulative prevalence of infection on historical data.
### Proportion of people that are naïve at start of projection (not vaccinated or infected)
Not explicitly modeled but we don't believe there were any people not vaccinated nor infected at the beginning of the simulation.
### Other
NA
Not explicitly modeled. However, the proportion could be estimated from cumulative prevalence of infection on historical data, if necessary.
We don't believe there were any people not vaccinated nor infected at the beginning of the simulation. This was addressed in waning immunity and immune escape sections below.
## Initial variant characteristics (transmissibility of variants at t=0, and how uncertainty or non-identifiability was handled)
Transmissibility, immune escape, hostalization, death rates were modeled as directed in the instruction. Transmissibility at t=0 was estimated from exponential curve fitting with additional calibration on incident case data (i.e., no sudden "jumps" between last observed data and first simulated data).
## Details about calibration of immunity at t=0 (calibration period considered, assumptions about/fitting of past immune escape and waning immunity, is the same calibration process used for all scenarios?)
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