Skip to content

Forecast QRIS Users MSMEs (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) Using Markov Chain Algorithm

Notifications You must be signed in to change notification settings

michstg/Forecast-QRIS-Users-Using-Markov-Chain-Algorithm

Repository files navigation

Forecast QRIS Users MSMEs (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) Using Markov Chain Algorithm

Dataset = Data UMKM Pengguna QRIS Kota Medan (From Bank Indonesia North Sumatera)

Times = December 2019 to June 2022

Implementasi rantai markov pada data umkm pengguna qris di kota medan

  • The statistical system contains a finite number of states.
  • The states are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
  • The transition probability from one state to another state is constant over time.

Summary(1) = Based on steady state predictions, after the 10th period onwards the probability of the data will be in a stable condition where the number of QRIS user data by MSMEs in the city of Medan will be in a "Down" condition with a 52.2% chance.

Summary(2) = MAPE = 19.38%