Merge pull request #88 from matsonj/quick-update

Quick-update

analyze/pages/index.md

@@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ ORDER BY sort_key
 ```
 
 ```thru_date
-SELECT max(date) as end_date FROM latest_results
+SELECT COALESCE(max(date),CURRENT_DATE) as end_date FROM latest_results
 ```
 ## Conference Summaries
 

data/team_ratings.csv

@@ -1,31 +1,31 @@
 team,team_long,conf,ELO rating,Win Total
-BOS,Boston Celtics,East,1686,53.5
-MIL,Milwaukee Bucks,East,1677,52.5
-MIA,Miami Heat,East,1642,48.5
-BRK,Brooklyn Nets,East,1661,50.5
-PHO,Phoenix Suns,West,1679,52.5
-LAC,Los Angeles Clippers,West,1674,52.5
-PHI,Philadelphia 76ers,East,1660,50.5
-DEN,Denver Nuggets,West,1649,49.5
-GSW,Golden State Warriors,West,1667,51.5
-DAL,Dallas Mavericks,West,1641,48.5
-MEM,Memphis Grizzlies,West,1638,48.5
-UTA,Utah Jazz,West,1431,24.5
-ATL,Atlanta Hawks,East,1618,45.5
-NOP,New Orleans Pelicans,West,1607,44.5
-TOR,Toronto Raptors,East,1629,45.5
-MIN,Minnesota Timberwolves,West,1638,48.5
-LAL,Los Angeles Lakers,West,1617,45.5
-POR,Portland Trail Blazers,West,1565,39.5
-CHI,Chicago Bulls,East,1593,42.5
-CHO,Charlotte Hornets,East,1543,36.5
-NYK,New York Knicks,East,1569,39.5
-IND,Indiana Pacers,East,1425,23.5
-CLE,Cleveland Cavaliers,East,1633,47.5
-SAC,Sacramento Kings,West,1514,33.5
-SAS,San Antonio Spurs,West,1413,22.5
-WAS,Washington Wizards,East,1534,35.5
-ORL,Orlando Magic,East,1453,26.5
-DET,Detroit Pistons,East,1482,29.5
-OKC,Oklahoma City Thunder,West,1423,23.5
-HOU,Houston Rockets,West,1423,23.5
+BOS,Boston Celtics,East,1650,47.5
+MIL,Milwaukee Bucks,East,1634,45.5
+MIA,Miami Heat,East,1631,45.0
+BRK,Brooklyn Nets,East,1586,40.0
+PHO,Phoenix Suns,West,1648,46.5
+LAC,Los Angeles Clippers,West,1606,42.0
+PHI,Philadelphia 76ers,East,1612,43.0
+DEN,Denver Nuggets,West,1652,46.5
+GSW,Golden State Warriors,West,1610,42.5
+DAL,Dallas Mavericks,West,1602,41.5
+MEM,Memphis Grizzlies,West,1597,40.5
+UTA,Utah Jazz,West,1581,38.5
+ATL,Atlanta Hawks,East,1587,40.0
+NOP,New Orleans Pelicans,West,1590,40.0
+TOR,Toronto Raptors,East,1584,39.0
+MIN,Minnesota Timberwolves,West,1586,49.5
+LAL,Los Angeles Lakers,West,1617,43.0
+POR,Portland Trail Blazers,West,1581,39.0
+CHI,Chicago Bulls,East,1582,39.0
+CHO,Charlotte Hornets,East,1580,39.0
+NYK,New York Knicks,East,1589,40.0
+IND,Indiana Pacers,East,1581,39.0
+CLE,Cleveland Cavaliers,East,1596,40.5
+SAC,Sacramento Kings,West,1588,40.0
+SAS,San Antonio Spurs,West,1582,39.0
+WAS,Washington Wizards,East,1580,38.5
+ORL,Orlando Magic,East,1581,39.0
+DET,Detroit Pistons,East,1580,39.0
+OKC,Oklahoma City Thunder,West,1584,39.0
+HOU,Houston Rockets,West,1580,39.0

data/team_ratings_2023.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+team,team_long,conf,ELO rating,Win Total
+BOS,Boston Celtics,East,1686,53.5
+MIL,Milwaukee Bucks,East,1677,52.5
+MIA,Miami Heat,East,1642,48.5
+BRK,Brooklyn Nets,East,1661,50.5
+PHO,Phoenix Suns,West,1679,52.5
+LAC,Los Angeles Clippers,West,1674,52.5
+PHI,Philadelphia 76ers,East,1660,50.5
+DEN,Denver Nuggets,West,1649,49.5
+GSW,Golden State Warriors,West,1667,51.5
+DAL,Dallas Mavericks,West,1641,48.5
+MEM,Memphis Grizzlies,West,1638,48.5
+UTA,Utah Jazz,West,1431,24.5
+ATL,Atlanta Hawks,East,1618,45.5
+NOP,New Orleans Pelicans,West,1607,44.5
+TOR,Toronto Raptors,East,1629,45.5
+MIN,Minnesota Timberwolves,West,1638,48.5
+LAL,Los Angeles Lakers,West,1617,45.5
+POR,Portland Trail Blazers,West,1565,39.5
+CHI,Chicago Bulls,East,1593,42.5
+CHO,Charlotte Hornets,East,1543,36.5
+NYK,New York Knicks,East,1569,39.5
+IND,Indiana Pacers,East,1425,23.5
+CLE,Cleveland Cavaliers,East,1633,47.5
+SAC,Sacramento Kings,West,1514,33.5
+SAS,San Antonio Spurs,West,1413,22.5
+WAS,Washington Wizards,East,1534,35.5
+ORL,Orlando Magic,East,1453,26.5
+DET,Detroit Pistons,East,1482,29.5
+OKC,Oklahoma City Thunder,West,1423,23.5
+HOU,Houston Rockets,West,1423,23.5

docs/compiled/nba_monte_carlo/models/conformed/inputs/latest_results.sql

@@ -15,5 +15,7 @@ SELECT
     END AS losing_team,
     True AS include_actuals
 FROM "mdsbox"."main"."prep_nba_elo_latest"
-WHERE score1 IS NOT NULL
+WHERE score1 IS NOT NULL 
+-- remove actual results so that we can sim 2023-24 season
+    AND 1 = 0
 GROUP BY ALL

docs/compiled/nba_monte_carlo/models/conformed/playin/playin_sim_r1.sql

@@ -6,10 +6,12 @@ SELECT
     EV.elo_rating AS visiting_team_elo_rating,
     EH.winning_team AS home_team,
     EH.elo_rating AS home_team_elo_rating,
-    ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 70)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 AS home_team_win_probability,
+    -- removing the 70 point adjustment for home team advantage for now
+   ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 0)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 AS home_team_win_probability,
     R.rand_result,
     CASE 
-        WHEN ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 70)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 >= R.rand_result THEN EH.winning_team
+        WHEN -- removing the 70 point adjustment for home team advantage for now
+   ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 0)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 >= R.rand_result THEN EH.winning_team
         ELSE EV.winning_team
     END AS winning_team 
 FROM "mdsbox"."main"."schedules" S

docs/compiled/nba_monte_carlo/models/conformed/playin/playin_sim_r2.sql

@@ -8,10 +8,12 @@ SELECT
     EV.winning_team_elo_rating AS visiting_team_elo_rating,
     EH.remaining_team AS home_team,
     EH.losing_team_elo_rating AS home_team_elo_rating,
-    ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.winning_team_elo_rating - EH.losing_team_elo_rating - 70)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 as home_team_win_probability,
+    -- removing the 70 point adjustment for home team advantage for now
+   ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.winning_team_elo_rating - EH.losing_team_elo_rating - 0)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 as home_team_win_probability,
     R.rand_result,
     CASE 
-        WHEN ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.winning_team_elo_rating - EH.losing_team_elo_rating - 70)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 >= R.rand_result THEN EH.remaining_team
+        WHEN -- removing the 70 point adjustment for home team advantage for now
+   ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.winning_team_elo_rating - EH.losing_team_elo_rating - 0)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 >= R.rand_result THEN EH.remaining_team
         ELSE EV.remaining_team
     END AS winning_team 
 FROM "mdsbox"."main"."schedules" S

docs/compiled/nba_monte_carlo/models/conformed/playoffs/playoff_sim_r1.sql

@@ -4,49 +4,52 @@ WITH cte_playoff_sim AS (
 
 -- depends-on: "mdsbox"."main"."random_num_gen"
 
-WITH cte_step_1 AS (
-    SELECT
-      R.scenario_id,
-      S.game_id,
-      S.series_id,
-      S.visiting_team AS visitor_key,
-      S.home_team AS home_key,
-      EV.winning_team AS visiting_team,
-      EV.elo_rating AS visiting_team_elo_rating,
-      EH.winning_team AS home_team,
-      EH.elo_rating AS home_team_elo_rating,
-      ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 70)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 as home_team_win_probability,
-      R.rand_result,
-      CASE
-         WHEN ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 70)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 >= R.rand_result THEN EH.winning_team
-         ELSE EV.winning_team
-      END AS winning_team 
-    FROM "mdsbox"."main"."schedules" S
-
-    LEFT JOIN "mdsbox"."main"."random_num_gen" R ON R.game_id = S.game_id
-    LEFT JOIN  "mdsbox"."main"."initialize_seeding" EH ON S.home_team = EH.seed AND R.scenario_id = EH.scenario_id
-    LEFT JOIN  "mdsbox"."main"."initialize_seeding" EV ON S.visiting_team = EV.seed AND R.scenario_id = EV.scenario_id
-
-    WHERE S.type =  'playoffs_r1' ),
-cte_step_2 AS (
-    SELECT step1.*,
-        ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY scenario_id, series_id, winning_team  ORDER BY scenario_id, series_id, game_id ) AS series_result
-    FROM cte_step_1 step1
-),
-cte_final_game AS (
-    SELECT scenario_id,
-        series_id,
-        game_id
-    FROM cte_step_2
-    WHERE series_result = 4
-)
-SELECT step2.* 
-FROM cte_step_2 step2
-    INNER JOIN cte_final_game F ON F.scenario_id = step2.scenario_id 
-        AND f.series_id = step2.series_id AND step2.game_id <= f.game_id
-ORDER BY step2.scenario_id, 
-    step2.series_id, 
-    step2.game_id
+    WITH cte_step_1 AS (
+        SELECT
+        R.scenario_id,
+        S.game_id,
+        S.series_id,
+        S.visiting_team AS visitor_key,
+        S.home_team AS home_key,
+        EV.winning_team AS visiting_team,
+        EV.elo_rating AS visiting_team_elo_rating,
+        EH.winning_team AS home_team,
+        EH.elo_rating AS home_team_elo_rating,
+        -- removing the 70 point adjustment for home team advantage for now
+   ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 0)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 as home_team_win_probability,
+        R.rand_result,
+        CASE
+            WHEN -- removing the 70 point adjustment for home team advantage for now
+   ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 0)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 >= R.rand_result THEN EH.winning_team
+            ELSE EV.winning_team
+        END AS winning_team 
+        FROM "mdsbox"."main"."schedules" S
+
+        LEFT JOIN "mdsbox"."main"."random_num_gen" R ON R.game_id = S.game_id
+        LEFT JOIN  "mdsbox"."main"."initialize_seeding" EH ON S.home_team = EH.seed AND R.scenario_id = EH.scenario_id
+        LEFT JOIN  "mdsbox"."main"."initialize_seeding" EV ON S.visiting_team = EV.seed AND R.scenario_id = EV.scenario_id
+
+        WHERE S.type =  'playoffs_r1'
+    ),
+    cte_step_2 AS (
+        SELECT step1.*,
+            ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY scenario_id, series_id, winning_team  ORDER BY scenario_id, series_id, game_id ) AS series_result
+        FROM cte_step_1 step1
+    ),
+    cte_final_game AS (
+        SELECT scenario_id,
+            series_id,
+            game_id
+        FROM cte_step_2
+        WHERE series_result = 4
+    )
+    SELECT step2.* 
+    FROM cte_step_2 step2
+        INNER JOIN cte_final_game F ON F.scenario_id = step2.scenario_id 
+            AND f.series_id = step2.series_id AND step2.game_id <= f.game_id
+    ORDER BY step2.scenario_id, 
+        step2.series_id, 
+        step2.game_id
 )
 
 SELECT

docs/compiled/nba_monte_carlo/models/conformed/playoffs/playoff_sim_r2.sql

@@ -4,49 +4,52 @@ WITH cte_playoff_sim AS (
 
 -- depends-on: "mdsbox"."main"."random_num_gen"
 
-WITH cte_step_1 AS (
-    SELECT
-      R.scenario_id,
-      S.game_id,
-      S.series_id,
-      S.visiting_team AS visitor_key,
-      S.home_team AS home_key,
-      EV.winning_team AS visiting_team,
-      EV.elo_rating AS visiting_team_elo_rating,
-      EH.winning_team AS home_team,
-      EH.elo_rating AS home_team_elo_rating,
-      ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 70)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 as home_team_win_probability,
-      R.rand_result,
-      CASE
-         WHEN ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 70)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 >= R.rand_result THEN EH.winning_team
-         ELSE EV.winning_team
-      END AS winning_team 
-    FROM "mdsbox"."main"."schedules" S
-
-    LEFT JOIN "mdsbox"."main"."random_num_gen" R ON R.game_id = S.game_id
-    LEFT JOIN  "mdsbox"."main"."playoff_sim_r1" EH ON S.home_team = EH.seed AND R.scenario_id = EH.scenario_id
-    LEFT JOIN  "mdsbox"."main"."playoff_sim_r1" EV ON S.visiting_team = EV.seed AND R.scenario_id = EV.scenario_id
-
-    WHERE S.type =  'playoffs_r2' ),
-cte_step_2 AS (
-    SELECT step1.*,
-        ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY scenario_id, series_id, winning_team  ORDER BY scenario_id, series_id, game_id ) AS series_result
-    FROM cte_step_1 step1
-),
-cte_final_game AS (
-    SELECT scenario_id,
-        series_id,
-        game_id
-    FROM cte_step_2
-    WHERE series_result = 4
-)
-SELECT step2.* 
-FROM cte_step_2 step2
-    INNER JOIN cte_final_game F ON F.scenario_id = step2.scenario_id 
-        AND f.series_id = step2.series_id AND step2.game_id <= f.game_id
-ORDER BY step2.scenario_id, 
-    step2.series_id, 
-    step2.game_id
+    WITH cte_step_1 AS (
+        SELECT
+        R.scenario_id,
+        S.game_id,
+        S.series_id,
+        S.visiting_team AS visitor_key,
+        S.home_team AS home_key,
+        EV.winning_team AS visiting_team,
+        EV.elo_rating AS visiting_team_elo_rating,
+        EH.winning_team AS home_team,
+        EH.elo_rating AS home_team_elo_rating,
+        -- removing the 70 point adjustment for home team advantage for now
+   ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 0)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 as home_team_win_probability,
+        R.rand_result,
+        CASE
+            WHEN -- removing the 70 point adjustment for home team advantage for now
+   ( 1 - (1 / (10 ^ (-( EV.elo_rating - EH.elo_rating - 0)::real/400)+1))) * 10000 >= R.rand_result THEN EH.winning_team
+            ELSE EV.winning_team
+        END AS winning_team 
+        FROM "mdsbox"."main"."schedules" S
+
+        LEFT JOIN "mdsbox"."main"."random_num_gen" R ON R.game_id = S.game_id
+        LEFT JOIN  "mdsbox"."main"."playoff_sim_r1" EH ON S.home_team = EH.seed AND R.scenario_id = EH.scenario_id
+        LEFT JOIN  "mdsbox"."main"."playoff_sim_r1" EV ON S.visiting_team = EV.seed AND R.scenario_id = EV.scenario_id
+
+        WHERE S.type =  'playoffs_r2'
+    ),
+    cte_step_2 AS (
+        SELECT step1.*,
+            ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY scenario_id, series_id, winning_team  ORDER BY scenario_id, series_id, game_id ) AS series_result
+        FROM cte_step_1 step1
+    ),
+    cte_final_game AS (
+        SELECT scenario_id,
+            series_id,
+            game_id
+        FROM cte_step_2
+        WHERE series_result = 4
+    )
+    SELECT step2.* 
+    FROM cte_step_2 step2
+        INNER JOIN cte_final_game F ON F.scenario_id = step2.scenario_id 
+            AND f.series_id = step2.series_id AND step2.game_id <= f.game_id
+    ORDER BY step2.scenario_id, 
+        step2.series_id, 
+        step2.game_id
 )
 
 SELECT