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Sensitivity Analysis of Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models of Dengue Virus Transmission

Description

Dengue is a considerable public health problem in tropical and sub-tropical area. It is transmitted primarily Aedes mosquitoes. There are four distinct serotype of DENV, but serologically close to each other. An infection from any single serotype of DENV provides a life-long immunity to that serotype, and a short-term cross protection to other three serotypes.

This project provides spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs) of Dengue Virus (DENV) transmission. In the model, individual human and infectious mosquito agents interact each other in the spatially explicit environment.

Spatially Explicit ABMs of DENV Transmission

Model Objectives

This model has been developed to perform Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis. The simulations are executed by varying four input parameters embedded in the model (i.e., the level of herd immunity, introduction rate, the number of mosquitoes, and mosquito extrinsic incubation period).

  • The level of herd immunity: the probability of exposure to DENV prior to a start of simulation (high, medium, and low)
  • Introduction rate: the rate of infection from outside (1.0e-6 - 1.0e-5)
  • the number of mosquitoes: the number of mosquitoes per a building (10 - 50)
  • mosquito extrinsic incubation period: the date that mosquitoes become infectious (9 - 12)

Instruction

In order to run this model, AnyLogic simulation software should be installed in your local environment.

"Personal Learning Edition (PLE)" limits creating a large number of dynamic agents (i.e., 50,000).

Due to this limit, this project may not be properly ran through "PLE" version.

For the proper use of this model, please purchase "University Researcher version" or try free 60-day trial.

This version of model is a portion of full model due to computational efficiency. To get a full version of the model, please contact me (jeonyoung.kang.geo@gmail.com).

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