Machine-Learning-Foundations-A-Case-Study-Approach

MACHINE LEARNING FOUNDATIONS

  https://www.coursera.org/specializations/machine-learning

WEEK 1 INTRODUCTION

THE MACHINE LEARNING PIPELINE

Data -> ML Method -> Intelligence

CASE STUDY APPROACH

Use various ML Methods in different case studies

Regression Case Study 1: Predicting house prices

Classification Case Study 2: Sentiment Analysis

Clustering Case Study 3: Document retrieval

Matrix Factorization Case Study 4: Product recommendation

Deep Learning Cases Study 5: Visual product recommender

Overview

Wk 2 Regression

Case Study: Prediction house prices
Models
    linear regression
    Regularization: Ridge (L2), Lasso (L1)
Algorithms
    Gradient descent
    Coordinate descent
Concepts
    Loss functions
    bias-variance tradeoff
    cross-validation
    sparsity
    overfitting
    model selection

Wk 3 Classification

Case study: Analyzing sentiment
Models:
    Linear classifiers (logistic regression, SVMs, perceptron)
    Kernels
    Decision trees
Algorithms
    Stochastic gradient descent
    Boosting
Concepts
    Decision boundaries
    MLE ensemble methods
    random forests
    CART
    online learning

Wk 4 Clustering & Retrieval

Case study: Finding documents
Models
    Nearest neighbors
    Clustering, mixtures of Gaussians
    Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)
Algorithms
    KD-trees, locality-sensitive hashing (LSH)
    K-means
    Expectation-maximization (EM)
Concepts
    Distance metrics
    approximation algorithms
    hashing
    sampling algorithms
    scaling up with map-reduce

Wk 5 Matrix Factorization & Dimensionality Reduction

Case study: Recommending Products
Models:
    Collaborative filtering
    Matrix factorization
    PCA
Algorithms
    Coordinate descent
    Eigen decomposition
    SVD Algorithms
Concepts
    Matrix completion
    eigenvalues
    random projections
    cold-start problem
    diversity
    scaling up

Wk 6 Capstone: An intelligent application using deep learning

GETTING STARTED WITH PYTHON

  Install anaconda, GraphLab, ipython notebook

To run notebooks once above is installed

    source activate gl-env
    conda update pip
    jupyter-notebook --no-browser

[First Notebook](week_1/Getting started with iPython Notebook.html)

   [source](week_1/Getting started with iPython Notebook.ipynb)

     Basic types

     i = 4 # int
    f = 4.1
   b = True

   type(i)

Advanced types

    l = [3, 1, 2] # list

     d = {'foo':1, 'bar':2.3, 's':'string'} # dictionary

     print d['foo']

  n = None # null
  type(n) # NoneType

Advanced printing

    print "Our float value is %s. Our int value is %s." % (f,i)

Conditional statements

   if i == 1 and f > 4:
      print "i == 1 and f > 4"
 elif i > 4 or f > 4:
   print "(i or f) > 4"
 else:
  print "(i and f) <= 4"

Loops

 print l

  for e in l:
  print e

   counter = 6
while counter < 10:
   print counter
  counter += 1

functions

  def add2(x):
   return x + 2

lambdas

 square = lambda x: x*x
   square(3)

GETTING STARTED WITH SFRAME AND GRAPHLAB CREATE

 iPython Notebook

 Machine learning library scikit-learn

  Data manipulation tool Pandas

Tools above require a learning curve. This course uses GraphLab Create that includes SFrame

   Load a tabular data set sf = graphlab.SFrame('people-example.csv')

       view end of the table sf.tail()
                      
                       

   visualizes any data structure in GraphLab Create sf.show()

    Categorical view sf['age'].show(view='Categorical')

Some simple columnar operations

     sf['age'].mean()
   sf['age'].max()

  Create new columns in our SFrame sf['Full Name'] = sf['First Name'] + ' ' + sf['Last Name']

Use the apply function to do a advance transformation of our data

    def transform_country(country):

      if country == 'USA':
     return 'United States'
     else:
      return country

     transform_country('USA')

   sf['Country'].apply(transform_country)

WEEK 2 Regression: Predicting House Prices

Introduction Linear regression modeling

This week you will build your first intelligent application that makes predictions of house prices from data.

Create models that predict a continuous value (price) from input features (square footage, number of bedrooms and bathrooms,...). Predicting house prices: A case study in regression

Want to list my house

Compare houses in neighborhood
Focus on similar houses: sq ft, bedrooms, etc

Plot a graph

X = sq. ft.
Y = Price

Terminology:

x = feature covariate or predictor
y = observation or response

Note no house on graph will have same sq ft as yours. Also, if you only include similar houses you're discarding the rest of the data on the graph

Fit a line through the data = f(x) = w0 + w1 x

w0 = intercept
w1 = slope

Linear Regression Model

  f(x) is parameterized by (w0, w1)

RSS := Residaul sum of squares

draw a line and sum the distance of plots from line

RSS(w0,w1) = ($house1 - [w0 + w1(sq ft house1])^2 + ($house2 - [w0 + w1(sq ft house2])^2 + ($house3 - [w0 + w1(sq ft house3])^2 + ...

RSS

best line is the one that minimizes the cost over all possible w0,w1

      Ŵ = (ŵ0, ŵ1) W hat

      Fŵ(x) = ŵ0 + ŵ1 x

Best guess of your house price ŷ = ŵ0 + ŵ1 (sq ft your house) Adding higher order effects

But what if it's not a linear relationship. It could be quadratic.

       Fw(x) = w0 + w1 x + w2 x^2

note we square x, but not w

We can apply even higher order polynomials to reduce RSS further

Quadratic

An example of an even higher order polynomial that may not be what you want :)

Higher order polynomial Evaluating regression models Evaluating overfitting via training/test split

Based on the last example, we can overfit to the point that it's not generalizable to new data

Want good predictions but can't observe future. We can simulate prediction

test set: remove some houses

training set: fit model on remaining houses

predict test set

Training error (w) = ($train1 - fw(sq.ft. train1))^2 + ($train2 - fw(sq.ft. train2))^2 + ($train3 - fw(sq.ft. train3))^2 + ...

Training error

    Test error (ŵ) = ($test1 - fw(sq.ft. test1))^2
           + ($test2 - fw(sq.ft. test2))^2
           + ($test3 - fw(sq.ft. test3))^2
           + ...

Test error Training/test curves

Training error ŵ decresases with increasing model order

Test error decreases up to a point but then starts increasing

Training/Test curves Adding other features

What if we need to add additional variables e.g. # bathrooms

Each new variable is a new dimension. so adding bathroom is a 3d graph

calculate hyperplane on the cube

More features Other regression examples

Salary after ML specialization ŷ = ŵ0 + ŵ1 performance + ŵ capstone + ŵ forum
Stock prediction depends on recent prices, news event, related commodities
tweet poplarity: # followers, # followers of followers, popularity of hashtag

Summary of regression

Regression Summary

Describe the input features and output real-valued predictions of a regression model
Calculate a goodness-of-fit metric (e.g., RSS)
Estimate model parameters by minimizing RSS (algorithms to come...)
Exploit the estimated model to form predictions
Perform a training/test split of the data
Analyze performance of various regression models in terms of test error
Use test error to avoid overfitting when selecting amongst candidate models
Describe a regression model using multiple features

Quiz: Regression

See Explore the Quadratic Equation to see the effect of the coefficients Predicting house prices: IPython Notebook

        iPython Notebook

Generate a scatter plot sales.show(view="Scatter Plot", x="sqft_living", y="price")

can hover over individual points to explore further

Splitting the data into training and test sets

    train_data,test_data = sales.random_split(.8,seed=0)

Use random_split to split training and test data
0.8 => 80% training and 20% test
set seed to 0 in this case. we should use a random seed or let GL pick it for you

Learning a simple regression model to predict house prices from house size

    sqft_model = graphlab.linear_regression.create(train_data,
                                           target='price', 
                                           features=['sqft_living'], 
                                           validation_set=None)

note the default algorithm used is Newton's Method

Evaluating error (RMSE) of the simple model

   print sqft_model.evaluate(test_data)

max_error is the outlier
Also shows RMSE

Visualizing predictions of simple model with Matplotlib

      import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
       %matplotlib inline

     plt.plot(test_data['sqft_living'], test_data['price'], '.',
     test_data['sqft_living'], sqft_model.predict(test_data), '-')

blue . is the actual data scatter plot
green - as a line is the predicted value based on the test_data

Inspecting the model coefficients learned

 sqft_model.get('coefficients')

(intercept) = where the line crosses the y axis
sqft_living ~= the average cost of a house per sq ft according to this regression model

View other features of a house we might be interested in

     my_features = ['bedrooms', 'bathrooms', 'sqft_living', 'sqft_lot', 'floors', 'zipcode']

     sales[my_features].show()

    sales.show(view='BoxWhisker Plot', x='zipcode', y='price')

BoxWhisker Plot to view the set split by feature (zipcode in this case)

Based on the data we see other features such as zip code, and # bedrooms makes a difference in the estimated price of a home

     my_features_model = graphlab.linear_regression.create(train_data,
                                                  target='price',
                                                  features=my_features,
                                                  validation_set=None)

print my_features to view what features are includedd

Compare the original model to the expanded features model

    print sqft_model.evaluate(test_data)
  print my_features_model.evaluate(test_data)

Note that the rmse has lowered by adding additional features

Applying learned models to predict price of an average house

   house1 = sales[sales['id']=='5309101200'] # find a particular house by id

   house1 # to view the data for this house

   print house1['price'] to view the actual price based on the data

    print sqft_model.predict(house1) to check the price our model predicted

  print my_features_model.predict(house1) to predict price based on expanded features

:caution: the prediction model based on sqft was more accurate than the expanded feature model in this case

Applying learned models to predict price of two fancy houses

       house2 = sales[sales['id']=='1925069082']

this is an example of a house where due to an uncaptured feature, "on the waterfront", was not predicted very well by our model expanded feature prediction is closer than the original sqft model

Final example is Bill Gates' house. We don't have data on what the actual price is but the prediction gives us a price, that is probably on the low end.

Quiz: Programming assignment

Selection and summary statistics: In the notebook we covered in the module, we discovered which neighborhood (zip code) of Seattle had the highest average house sale price. Now, take the sales data, select only the houses with this zip code, and compute the average price.

Ans:

   houses = sales[sales['zipcode']=='98039']
    houses['price'].mean()

   2160606.5999999996

Filtering data: One of the key features we used in our model was the number of square feet of living space (sqft_living) in the house. For this part, we are going to use the idea of filtering (selecting) data.

In particular, we are going to use logical filters to select rows of an SFrame. You can find more info in the Logical Filter section of this documentation. Using such filters, first select the houses that have sqft_living higher than 2000 sqft but no larger than 4000 sqft. What fraction of the all houses have sqft_living in this range? Save this result to answer the quiz at the end.

Ans:

  100.0 * sales[(sales['sqft_living'] > 2000) & (sales['sqft_living'] <= 4000)].num_rows() / sales.num_rows()

  42.187572294452416

Building a regression model with several more features: In the sample notebook, we built two regression models to predict house prices, one using just sqft_living and the other one using a few more features, we called this set

  my_features = ['bedrooms', 'bathrooms', 'sqft_living', 'sqft_lot', 'floors', 'zipcode']

Now, going back to the original dataset, you will build a model using the following features:

  advanced_features = 
[
  'bedrooms', 'bathrooms', 'sqft_living', 'sqft_lot', 'floors', 'zipcode',
 'condition', # condition of house       
  'grade', # measure of quality of construction       
      'waterfront', # waterfront property       
   'view', # type of view        
 'sqft_above', # square feet above ground        
  'sqft_basement', # square feet in basement        
      'yr_built', # the year built        
   'yr_renovated', # the year renovated        
    'lat', 'long', # the lat-long of the parcel       
      'sqft_living15', # average sq.ft. of 15 nearest neighbors         
    'sqft_lot15', # average lot size of 15 nearest neighbors 
    ]

Compute the RMSE (root mean squared error) on the test_data for the model using just my_features, and for the one using advanced_features.

     Ans:

      my_features = ['bedrooms', 'bathrooms', 'sqft_living', 'sqft_lot', 'floors', 'zipcode']

    advanced_features = 
     [
      'bedrooms', 'bathrooms', 'sqft_living', 'sqft_lot', 'floors', 'zipcode',
        'condition', # condition of house       
      'grade', # measure of quality of construction       
       'waterfront', # waterfront property       
     'view', # type of view        
   'sqft_above', # square feet above ground        
     'sqft_basement', # square feet in basement        
   'yr_built', # the year built        
   'yr_renovated', # the year renovated        
    'lat', 'long', # the lat-long of the parcel       
    'sqft_living15', # average sq.ft. of 15 nearest neighbors         
       'sqft_lot15', # average lot size of 15 nearest neighbors 
       ]

     train_data,test_data = sales.random_split(.8,seed=0)

   f_model = graphlab.linear_regression.create(train_data, target='price', features=my_features, validation_set=None)
     af_model = graphlab.linear_regression.create(train_data, target='price', features=advanced_features, validation_set=None)

  print "RMSE diff = " + str(f_model.evaluate(test_data)['rmse'] - af_model.evaluate(test_data)['rmse'])

  RMSE diff = 22711.3165108

WEEK 3 Classification: Analyzing Sentiment

CLASSIFICATION MODELING Analyzing the sentiment of reviews

Rating with stars is too simple

Understand aspects of restaurant review

build a restaurant review app
categories for review e.g. experience, ramen, sushi
Break all reviews into sentences in a Sentence Sentiment Classifier
Average the predictions
Display the most positive or negative reviews

Classification Aplications

Input (sentence) -> Classifier -> Output (predicted rating)

Examples

Webpage classification by category e.g. education, finance, technology
Spam filtering: checks sender, text, ipaddress, etc
Image classification
Personalized medical diagnosis
Reading your mind by FMRI

simple threshold classifier

list of +ve words: great, awesome, etc
list of -ve words: bad, terrible, etc
if # +ve words > # -ve words => ŷ = +ve else ŷ = -ve
e.g. "Great sushi, awesome food, but terrible service" => +2, -1

Problems with threshold classifier

populating initial +ve and -ve word lists
words have degrees of sentiment: e.g. "great" > "good"
single words are not enough: "good" vs "not good"

The first two can be address by learning a classifier

The 3rd issue can be address by more elaborate features Word Weight great 1.5 awesome 1.2 bad -1.0 terrible -2.1 awful -3.3 restaurant, the, we, where, ... 0.0

e.g. "Sushi was great, the food was awesome, but the service was terrible"

score = 1.2 (great) + 1.7 (awesome) - 2.1 (terrible) = 0.8

Decision Boundaries

Can graph scores. e.g. awesome = 1.0 and awful = -1.5

awful 5| 4| 3| 2| * (this ambiance is awesome but service is awful and food is awful) 1| 0|-------- awesome 0 1 2 3 4

For linear classifiers

when 2 weights are non-zero: line
when 3 weights are non-zero: plane
when 2 weights are non-zero: hyperplane

Evaluating classification models Training and Evaluating a Classifier

Training a classifier = Learning the weights

split data into training and test sets
training set is passed to learned classifier to learn weights of words
test set is evaluated by error & accuracy

Test example "Sushi was great"

Feed the sentence ^ to the learned classifier
predict ŷ is +ve
pass multiple test cases and compare correct vs mistakes

Classification error & accuracy

Error = (# mistakes) / (total # sentences)
    best possible value = 0.0
Accuracy = (# correct) / (total # sentences)
    best possible value = 1.0

 error = 1 - accuracy

What's a good accuracy?

Purely random guessing on a binary classification = 0.5 accuracy

For k classes, accuracy = 1/k

we should at least beat random guessing

This can be counterintuitive e.g.

"90% email is spam"
if we predict 100% email is spam we get 90% accuracy

Questions to ask:

Is there class imbalance?
How does it compare to a simple, baseline approach?
    Random guessing
    Majority class
    ...
Most importantly: what accuracy does my application need?
    What is good enough for my users experience?
    What is the impact of the mistakes we make?

False positives, false negatives, and confusion matrices

A confusion matrix

           Predicted Label
         |   +ve     |  -ve      |
         |-----------|-----------|

True +ve & True -ve is good, we got it right
FN (False -ve) & FP have different impacts

Example of domains

       | Spam filtering | Medical Diagnosis  |
       | -------------- | ------------------ |

Given 100 test examples, a possible confusion matrix for spam filtering

        Predicted Label
         | +ve  | -ve  |

True +ve | (50) | 10 | Label -ve | 5 | (35) |

Accuracy = 85/100 = 0.85 ie higher false +ve than false -ve

Multiclass classification example with 100 test examples

      Predicted Label
  |            | Healthy    | Cold | Flu |
  | ---------- | ---------- | ---- | --- |

True | Healthy 70 | (60) | 8 | 2 | Label | Cold 20 | 4 | (12) | 4 | | Flu 10 | 2 | | (8) |

Accuracy = (60 + 12 + 8)/100 = 80/100 = 0.8 Learning Curves: How much data do I need?

More data is good but data quality is more important

Theoretical techniques sometimes bound how much data is needed

provide guidance but not as practical

In practice

more complex models require more data
empirical analysis can provide guidance

Learning curves

Generally, the more data we have the fewer test errors we find

Test error

    ^
    |*
    | *
    |   *
    |      *
    |            *
    |                        *
    |                                                 *
    |----------------------------------> Amount of training data

Bias of model even with infinite data, the curve never reaches 0.

More complex models tend to have less bias

sentiment classifier on single words does ok
But some are just too hard e.g. "The sushi was not good"
we can then score on pairs of words bigram model

Even bigram models have bias. The graph looks better (approaches 0 faster) but never hits 0 Class Probabilities

Classifier provide a confidence level P(y|x)

e.g. "the sushi & everything else were awesome" P(y=+|x) = 0.99
"The sushi was good, the service was OK" P(y=+|x) = 0.55
    less confident that this is a +ve review

Summary of classification Classification ML block diagram

Classification ML Block Diagram

y = Training data
x = word counts
ŷ = predicted sentiment
ŵ = weights for each word
y = sentiment label
compare y with ŷ to get a quality metric that is fed into ML Algorithm
ML algorithm updates ŵ

Summary

Identify a classification problem and some common applications
Describe decision boundaries and linear classifiers
Train a classifier
Measure its error
    Some rules of thumb for good accuracy
Interpret the types of error associated with classification
Describe the tradeoffs between model bias and data set size
Use class probability to express degree of confidence in prediction

Quiz: Classification

1 The simple threshold classifier for sentiment analysis described in the video (check all that apply):

Must have pre-defined positive and negative attributes
Must either count attributes equally or pre-define weights on attributes
Defines a possibly non-linear decision boundary

1

2 For a linear classifier classifying between positive and negative sentiment in a review x, Score(x) = 0 implies (check all that apply):

The review is very clearly negative
We are uncertain whether the review is positive or negative
We need to retrain our classifier because an error has occurred

2

3 For which of the following datasets would a linear classifier perform perfectly?

x 1,2,3

4 True or false: High classification accuracy always indicates a good classifier.

false

5 True or false: For a classifier classifying between 5 classes, there always exists a classifier with accuracy greater than 0.18.

true

6 True or false: A false negative is always worse than a false positive.

false

7 Which of the following statements are true? (Check all that apply)

Test error tends to decrease with more training data until a point, and then does not change (i.e., curve flattens out)
Test error always goes to 0 with an unboundedly large training dataset
Test error is never a function of the amount of training data

1 Analyzing sentiment: IPython Notebook

iPython Notebook

     Analyze text products['word_count'] = graphlab.text_analytics.count_words(products['review'])

Train classifier using a logistic classifier

     train_data,test_data = products.random_split(.8, seed=0)


     sentiment_model = graphlab.logistic_classifier.create(train_data,
                                                 target='sentiment',
                                                 features=['word_count'],
                                                 validation_set=test_data)

Evaluate the sentiment model using ROC Curve

   sentiment_model.evaluate(test_data, metric='roc_curve')

    sentiment_model.show(view='Evaluation')

Programming assignment

Analyzing product sentiment assignment Quiz: Analyzing product sentiment

WEEK 4 Clustering and Similarity: Retrieving Documents

Algorithms for retrieval and measuring similarity of documents Document retrieval: A case study in clustering and measuring similarity

Groups of related articles: clusters

What is the document retrieval task?

Given an article, how to find similar articles?

measure similarity
search over similar articles

Word count representation for measuring similarity

WEEK 5 Recommender Systems

Recommender systems

ML to use past history of your and other's purchases

Where we see recommender systems in action

youtube, netflix movies
amazon products: include global and session interests e.g. last yr was buying newborn products
facebook friend recommendations
drug target interactions: drug d has been studied for target t. Can we discover new applications of d?

Building a recommender system via classification Solution 0: Popularity

rank by global popularity

con: no personalization Solution 1: Classification Model

Features may not be available e.g. age, gender

doesn't perform as well as collaborative filtering Solution 2: Co-occurrence matrices for collaborative filtering

e.g. person buying diapers might also be interested in baby wipes b'se others did so

Matrix C: (#i * #j)

symmetric matrix: reflective on diagonal

when buying diapers, look at the row for diapers and find other products that people bought frequently when buying diapers

row diapers [ 0 .... 4 ......... 100 ... ] dvd pacifier baby wipes

Effect of popular items

Sophie giraffe is a popular baby product

Can weight my purchased items to refine e.g.

Score(me, baby wipes) = 1/2[S(wipes,diapers) + S(wipes,milk)]

Cons: does not utilize

context: e.g. time of day

user features: e.g. age

product features: e.g. baby vs electronics

Cold start problem: what if this is a new product

row Sophie [ 0 .... 4 ......... 100 ......... 1M ..... ] dvd pacifier baby wipes diapers

Diapers is really popular so it drowns out everything else in the domain Normalizing co-occurrence matrices and leveraging purchase histories

Normalize with Jaccard Similarity

similar to TF-IDF
(#i + #j purchased) / (#i OR #j purchased)
^ = ∪(i,j) / i' + j' (venn notation)

An alternative similarity metric is cosine similarity

Cons

does not utilize context (e.g. time of day), user features (e.g. age), product features (e.g. baby vs electronics)
Cold start problem: no history for a new product or user

Matrix factorization Matrix completion task User Movie Rating U1 M1 3 U1 M2 5 U1 M3 2 U2 M4 2 U2 M5 4 U3 M2 4 U3 M4 4 U3 M5 5 U3 M6 4

Matrix

     -------------

Rating = |XX X XXX| |X X | | X X X X| Users | X XX X | |X X X| | X XX | ------------- Movies

Rating(u,v) known for X cells
Rating(u,v) unknown for blank cells

Goal is to fill missing data Recommendations from known user/item features

Describe Movie v with topics Rv
    action, romance, drama ... = [0,3, 0.01, 1.5, ...]
Describe User u with topics Lu
    action, romance, drama ... = [2.5, 0, 0.8, ...]

Estimate ^Rating(u,v) for an unkown movie = ^Rv * ^Lu

[0,3, 0.01, 1.5, ...] * [2.5, 0, 0.8, ...] = 0.75 + 0 + 1.2 = 1.95

^ is not representative of what the user would score the movie, but the higher the score the more likely they are to like it Predictions in matrix form

Rating(u,v) = <Lu, Rv>

Can create the same matrix like above by using by getting all Lu and all Rv Discovering hidden structure by matrix factorization

Use residual sum of squars RSS (introduced earlier)

RSS(L,R) = SUM[(Rating(u,v) - <Lu,Rv>)^2]

Matrix Factorization Model is taking this matrix and approximating it with factorization

Limitations:

cold start problem: new movie or user

Bringing it all together: Featurized matrix factorization

Features capture context
matrix factorization captures group of users

We can combine the 2 above to mitigate cold-start problem

rating for a new user from features only
As we gather user data we shift to matrix factorization topics

Netflix Challenge 2006-2009

winning team blended over 100 models

Performance metrics for recommender systems A performance metric for recommender systems

Don't want to use classification accuracy (liked vs not liked)

not interested in what a person does not like
want to quickly discover relatively few liked items
^ imbalanced class problem

Users have short attention span, so we want to recommend fewer items

higher cost to missing liked item

Recall = (# liked & shown) / (# liked)

e.g 3/5

Precision = (# liked & shown) / (# shown)

e.g. 3/11

Optimal recommenders

How to maximize recall? recommend all my liked items

in this case precision is really small. e.g. 1000 total products, of which i liked 6 items => precision = 6/1000

Optimal recommender is to only recommend only items I like

precision & recall = 1

Precision-recall curves

Input: specific recommender system
Oupture: algoritm-specific precision-recall curve

Precision Recall Curve

A possible metric is AUC (Area under Curve). e.g. compare the blue curve to green curve below

Precision Recall Algorithm

Another metric is to set desired recall and maximize precision at k e.g.

only want to display x items to fit on a single page
assuming users will ignore anything more than x items

Summary of recommender systems

Recommender systems ML block diagram

Training data = user, products, ratings
x: user_id, product_id
ML Model: matrix factorization
ŵ: { ^Lu, ^Ru } + other weighted parameters
ŷ: predicted rating
y = actual ratings (training data set)
quality metric: RSS as well as others

ML Block Diagram Quiz: Recommender Systems

1 Recommending items based on global popularity can (check all that apply):

a) provide personalization b)capture context (e.g., time of day) c) none of the above

2 Recommending items using a classification approach can (check all that apply):

provide personalization
capture context (e.g., time of day)
none of the above
answer:-

3 Recommending items using a simple count based co-occurrence matrix can (check all that apply):

provide personalization
capture context (e.g., time of day)
none of the above

4 Recommending items using featurized matrix factorization can (check all that apply):

provide personalization
capture context (e.g., time of day)
none of the above

5 Normalizing co-occurrence matrices is used primarily to account for:

people who purchased many items
items purchased by many people
eliminating rare products
none of the above

6 A store has 3 customers and 3 products. Below are the learned feature vectors for each user and product. Based on this estimated model, which product would you recommend most highly to User #2?

| User ID | Feature vector | | 1 | (1.73, 0.01, 5.22) | | 2 | (0.03, 4.41, 2.05) | | 3 | (1.13, 0.89, 3.76) |

| Product ID | Feature vector | | 1 | (3.29, 3.44, 3.67) | | 2 | (0.82, 9.71, 3.88) | | 3 | (8.34, 1.72, 0.02) |

Product #1
Product #2
Product #3

7 For the liked and recommended items displayed below, calculate the recall and round to 2 decimal points. (As in the lesson, green squares indicate recommended items, magenta squares are liked items. Items not recommended are grayed out for clarity.) Note: enter your answer in American decimal format (e.g. enter 0.98, not 0,98)

8 For the liked and recommended items displayed below, calculate the precision and round to 2 decimal points. (As in the lesson, green squares indicate recommended items, magenta squares are liked items. Items not recommended are grayed out for clarity.) Note: enter your answer in American decimal format (e.g. enter 0.98, not 0,98)

9 Based on the precision-recall curves in the figure below, which recommender would you use?

RecSys #1

RecSys #2

RecSys #3

Answer: -

3

1,2

1

1,2

2

2

1 / 3 = 0.33

1/4 = 0.25

1

Song recommender: IPython Notebook

iPython Notebook Loading and exploring song data

Song data = [user_id, song_id, listen_count, title, artist, song]

song_data['song'].show()

Show unique users users = song_data['user_id'].unique() Creating & evaluating a popularity-based song recommender

Set up train/test data train_data,test_data = song_data.random_split(.8,seed=0)

Popularity based recommender popularity_recommender

popularity_model = graphlab.popularity_recommender
.create(train_data, user_id='user_id', item_id='song')

Note: we're using song as the item_id for the recommender above

The recommendations for all users should be the same

popularity_model.recommend(users=[users[0]])
popularity_model.recommend(users=[users[1]])

Creating & evaluating a personalized song recommender

Personalized recommender item_similarity_recommender

personalized_model = graphlab.item_similarity_recommender
.create(train_data, user_id='user_id', item_id='song')

Can recommend by user personalized_model.recommend(users=[users[0]])

Or by Song personalized_model.get_similar_items(['With Or Without You - U2']) Using precision-recall to compare recommender models

Can compare() the 2 models on test_data and generate a graph

model_performance = graphlab.compare(test_data, [popularity_model, personalized_model], user_sample=0.05)

graphlab.show_comparison(model_performance,[popularity_model, personalized_model])

Quiz: Recommending songs Deep Learning: Searching for Images Neural networks: Learning very non-linear features Slides presented in this module

Annotated PDF

Some useful papers on computer vision:

SIFT - Lowe '99
Spin Images - Johnson & Herbert '99
Textons - Malik et al. '99
RIFT - Lazebnik '04
GLOH - Mikolajczyk & Schmid '05
HoG - Dalal & Triggs '05
SURF - Bay et al. '06
ImageNet - Krizhevsky '12

What is a visual product recommender?

Want to search for a product but not sure what keywords to use e.g. dress

"dress floral" shows varied options
Can click on "similar items" once we find something we like

Learning very non-linear features with neural networks

Features are key to machine learning

Deep learning based on neural networks

learning very non-linear features

Linear classifiers create a boundary between +ve and -ve scores

With neural networks, we use graphs to score

Score(x) = w0 + Sum(wi * xi)

Graph Classifier

QN: If the perceptron takes an input of exacly 0, what should it output?

ANS: Implementation defined. An input of zero is an edge case.

What can a linear classifier represent?

x1 OR x2
x1 AND x2

What can a linear classifier represent?

What can't a linear classifier represent? XOR

What can't a linear classifier represent?

^ this is a representation of a simple neural network

Neural Networks

require lots of data
require high performance systems

Deep learning & deep features Application of deep learning to computer vision

Image features are combined to make a prediction.

e.g. nose, eye, eye, mouth => face
^ detectors are much lower level. don't find eye, but various features
^ find "unique" features

Example algorithm is SIFT

SIFT

Implicitly learn features

implicitly learn features Deep learning performance

Examples of image recognition using deep neural networks

99.5% German traffic sign
97.8% house number recognition
ImageNet 2012 competition
    SuperVision team got huge gain over competitors with new algorithms and GPU implementation

Demo of deep learning model on ImageNet data

ImageNet Other examples of deep learning in computer vision

Scene parsing: label parts of an image

scene parsing Challenges of deep learning

Pros

Enables learning of features rather than hand tuning
Impressive performance gains
    Computer vision
    Speech recognition
    Some text analysis
Potential for more impact

Cons

Requires a lot of data for high accuracy
Computationally really expensive
Extremely hard to tune
    Choice of architecture
    Parameter types
    Hyperparameters
    Learning algorithm
    etc

layers

Computationally expensive and hard to tune Deep Features

Deep Features allow us to build neural networks with smaller seed data

Deep Features

In a neural net

early tasks are more generic and used as feature extractor
later tasks are specific

By doing:

keep weights fixed for early tasks
use simple classifier in later tasks

Tasks

Workflow looks like

workflow

Real world use: Compology adds camera to trash cans to detect how full the trashcan is Summary of deep learning

training data: image, label
x: deep features
ML model: logistic regression
ŷ: predicted labels
y: true labels
quality metric: classification accuracy
ŵ: weights of features

ML Block Diagram

Summary

Describe multi-layer neural network models
Interpret the role of features as local detectors in computer vision
Relate neural networks to hand-crafted image features
Describe some settings where deep learning achieves significant performance boosts
State the pros & cons of deep learning model
Apply the notion of transfer learning
Use neural network models trained in one domain as features for building a model in another domain
Build an image retrieval tool using deep features

Quiz: Deep Learning 6 questions

1 Which of the following statements are true? (Check all that apply)

Linear classifiers are never useful, because they cannot represent XOR.
Linear classifiers are useful, because, with enough data, they can represent anything.
Having good non-linear features can allow us to learn very accurate linear classifiers.
none of the above

answer:-    3

2 A simple linear classifier can represent which of the following functions? (Check all that apply) Hint: If you are stuck, see https://www.coursera.org/learn/ml-foundations/module/nqC1t/discussions/AAIUurrtEeWGphLhfbPAyQ

x1 OR x2 OR NOT x3
x1 AND x2 AND NOT x3
x1 OR (x2 AND NOT x3)
none of the above

answer:- 1,2,3

Generated tables

| a | b | c | a OR b OR NOT c | | T | T | T | T | | T | T | F | T | | T | F | T | T | | T | F | F | T | | F | T | T | T | | F | T | F | T | | F | F | T | F | | F | F | F | T |

| a | b | c | a AND b AND NOT c | | T | T | T | F | | T | T | F | T | | T | F | T | F | | T | F | F | F | | F | T | T | F | | F | T | F | F | | F | F | T | F | | F | F | F | F |

| a | b | c | a OR (b AND NOT c) | | T | T | T | T | | T | T | F | T | | T | F | T | T | | T | F | F | T | | F | T | T | F | | F | T | F | T | | F | F | T | F | | F | F | F | F |

3 Which of the the following neural networks can represent the following function? Select all that apply. (x1 AND x2) OR (NOT x1 AND NOT x2)

Hint: If you are stuck, see https://www.coursera.org/learn/ml-foundations/module/nqC1t/discussions/AAIUurrtEeWGphLhfbPAyQ

answer:- 4

4 Which of the following statements is true? (Check all that apply)

1). Features in computer vision act like local detectors. 2).Deep learning has had impact in computer vision, because it’s used to combine all the different hand-created features that already exist. 3). By learning non-linear features, neural networks have allowed us to automatically learn detectors for computer vision. 4).none of the above

answer:- 1,3

5 If you have lots of images of different types of plankton labeled with their species name, and lots of computational resources, what would you expect to perform better predictions:

1). a deep neural network trained on this data. 2). a simple classifier trained on this data, using deep features as input, which were trained using ImageNet data.

answer:- 1

6 If you have a few images of different types of plankton labeled with their species name, what would you expect to perform better predictions:

1). a deep neural network trained on this data.

2). a simple classifier trained on this data, using deep features as input, which were trained using ImageNet data.

answer:- 2

Deep features for image classification: iPython Notebook

iPython Notebook Deep features for image retrieval: iPython Notebook

iPython Notebook Programming assignment

bird
6
4
35 - 37
37-39
cat
60-70

Deploying machine learning as a service

What is Production?

Deployment: Server live predictions

Evaluation: Measuring quality of deployed models

Management: Choosing between deployed models

Monitoring: Tracking model quality & operations

Deployment ---> Evaluation

  ^               |
  |               |
  |               v

Management <--- Monitoring

Deployment System

Batch Training Real-time Predictions |-------------------| |----------------------------------------|

Hist. Data -> Model -> System -> Predictions ^ ^ ^
| \ / v | Live Data Feedback |_____________________________|

After Deployment: Evaluation, Management, Monitoring

Use feedback to learn a Model 2

run both and compare to Model 1
continuous evaluation and testing

Evaluation = predictions + metrics

track data collecting from users
what metrics being used to evaluate

Offline evaluation: when do we update the model?

e.g. SSE (sum squared error)

Online evaluation: choosing between models

e.g. User engagement

Can use A/B Testing to choose between ML Models

Other production considerations

A/B testing caveats
versioning
provenance
dashboards
reports
etc

Machine learning challenges and future directions Open challenges in ML

Choice of Model to use

Lots of models are available
e.g. classifier vs matrix factorization

Data representation

e.g. how do i represent bag of words count or tf-idf

Scaling: Data is getting big

e.g. too many social networks to get data from
e.g. wearable devices are gathering a lot of data
e.g. IoT
Need methods that scale up to the amount of data available

Scaling: models are getting big

e.g. clustering models applied on brain activity gets complicated

CPUs stopped getting faster

marginal increases in last decade

Parallel architectures

can solve for CPU limitations e.g. using GPUs or clusters
concurrent system design and implementation is hard

Where is ML going?

Self-driving cars
specialized medicine
combining real-time data gathering: e.g. localization, cameras, etc
scaling up with amount of data

What's ahead in the specialization

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home_data.gl		home_data.gl
weak2		weak2
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# weak 2 Assignment		# weak 2 Assignment
#Weak 1 Assignment1		#Weak 1 Assignment1
#weak-3-QUIZ Classification		#weak-3-QUIZ Classification
#weak-3-QUIZ Classification_explanation		#weak-3-QUIZ Classification_explanation
#weak-3-QUIZ_2 Classification		#weak-3-QUIZ_2 Classification
#weak2 -dataset-Predicting house prices.ipynb		#weak2 -dataset-Predicting house prices.ipynb
README.md		README.md
classification-annotated.pdf		classification-annotated.pdf
environment.yml		environment.yml
fitting_samples.png		fitting_samples.png
regression-intro-annotated.pdf		regression-intro-annotated.pdf

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Machine-Learning-Foundations-A-Case-Study-Approach

WEEK 1 INTRODUCTION

GETTING STARTED WITH PYTHON

To run notebooks once above is installed

WEEK 2 Regression: Predicting House Prices

WEEK 3 Classification: Analyzing Sentiment

WEEK 4 Clustering and Similarity: Retrieving Documents

WEEK 5 Recommender Systems

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