Please note that this work has YET TO BE PEER REVIEWED and is an early access pre-print. It has not been validated yet and therefore should not be used for clinical purposes.
Jacob Deasy, Emma Rocheteau, Katharina Kohler, Daniel J. Stubbs, Pietro Barbiero, Pietro Lio, Ari Ercole
University of Cambridge
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Intensive care unit (ICU) utilisation (for respiratory failure due to viral pneumonitis) is significant for COVID-19 infection. This has the potential to exhaust ICU capacity as was seen in Italy which has been particularly badly hit.
It is possible to create further ICU capacity however this requires time (e.g. by cancelling elective major surgery) or freeing up beds so that ICU patients can be more quickly discharged. At present we do not have a model that allows ultra-early ICU occupancy forecasting. Here we present code for an ultra-early forecast which attempts aim to create a 14 day forecast of COVID-19 ICU occupancy in the NHS commissioning regions in England as a percentage of the total number of available beds from Public Health England dashboard COVID-19 case data.
Modelling assumptions are described in "MANUSCRIPT- Forecasting Ultra-early Intensive Care Strain from COVID-19 in England.pdf".
Important note: This is experimental and not yet validated (as cases have not yet arrived since the model is being developed as the pandemic unfolds). The model is only as good as its assumptions and starting data both of which are likely to have limitations. It should not be used for clinical decision making.