High Rollers

"Do you roll low, or do you roll unlucky?"

• Intro
  • What is this project about?
• Goals, Methods & Potential Challenges
  • What will be done in this project?
• Process
  • How will this project be done?
• Desired Outcomes
  • What will come out of this project?
• Basic Knowledge & Definitions
  • Help! I don't understand any of this weird nerd lingo!

Intro

In Dimension 20's many actual-play series, various cast-members have gained reputations for either rolling particularly high or low. But are those reputations rightfully earned?

This project aims to do a deep-dive into the rolling habits of regular cast members, and analyze whether or not their rolls are statistical outliers, or merely memorable.

Goals, Methods & Potential Challenges

• the goal is to determine which players roll better/worse statistically, vs those who are simply lucky/unlucky
• this will be determined by analyzing all rolls in general, followed by the average number of critical fails and success, per player
• while some community members have analyzed some of these statistics, most of this information isn't readily available
• to get this information, transcripts for each episode will be pulled, and roll outcomes will be extracted
• ideally, the value of each roll would also be weighed (e.g. are they rolling to determine if they're able to damage a high-leveled and important enemy, or are they rolling to see if their favourite ale is available at the tavern), but that that will most likely be supplemental to the initial analysis
• since players are not consistent with how they announce their rolls (e.g. they may announce an 18 because they rolled a 16 and have a +2 modifier to that skill), it may be difficult to determine the complete accuracy of the data

Process

• download the transcripts from the fan-run wiki
• isolate & analyze data for critical successes and failures (players announce natural 20s and 1s, which make them easier to find in transcripts)
• isolate & analyze data for Box of Doom rolls (these rolls are also announced, with their results recorded on camera)
• isolate & analyze data for all rolls across every player of the main campaigns
• compare & visualize results

Desired Outcomes

• concrete data on player successes and failures
• useful for good natured razzing
• a visual representation of superstition & reputation vs fact i.e. we know that statistically, player averages are likely to be similar, but we often feel that some players roll better than others. the aim here is to show whether our feelings are correct in this matter

Basic Knowledge & Definitions

• Dimension 20
  • a TTRPG show produced by CollegeHumor and hosted on their streaming service Dropout
  • features a core cast of 6 players and a regular game master for their regular seasons, as well as a rotating cast of players and game masters for additional seasons
• TTRPG
  • tabletop roleplaying game
  • a pen & paper style game where players describe the action through speech as opposed to relying on a physical medium
• Dungeons & Dragons (aka DnD/D&D)
  • one of the most popular and well known TTRPGs
  • players rely on dice rolls to determine successes and failures of certain actions
• Game Master (GM)/Dungeon Master (DM)
  • Dungeon Master is generally used exclusively in Dungeons and Dragons, with other systems often using the term Game Master to avoid confusion/copyright issues
  • the organizer, referee, and narrator of the campaign
  • does not act as a player or character, but as an omnipotent voice that describes the world and what is happening is it
  • makes sure that rules are being abided by (to their discretion), calls for players to make ability rolls when necessary and determines the outcomes of those rolls
• Actual Play
  • when a TTRPG is being played for an audience, as opposed to being played just for fun at home
  • e.g. podcasts, livestreams, edited video
• Natural/Nat vs Dirty/Unnatural/Modified Roles
  • a natural roll is the number displayed on the die as it lands
  • players are often able to modify this number based on the abilities of their characters
• 20s vs 1s
  • i.e. critical success vs critical failure
  • in many TTRPGs, such as D&D, natural 20s are the most desired roll on the die, as they generally represent an automatic success regardless of any player modifications
  • meanwhile, natural 1s represent an automatic failure despite any modifications (e.g. a player rolls a natural 1 on an intelligence check. their character would normally add 5 to all intelligence checks, which theoretically make this roll a 6, but due to the natural 1, this will still be considered a critical failure)
• Dice Names
  • dice are normally referred to based on the number of sides they have
  • i.e. a D4 is a 4-sided die, a D6 is a 6-sided die, etc
  • D20s (20-sided dice) are the most commonly used
• Box of Doom
  • a mechanic unique to Dimension 20 where important rolls are done in the 'Box of Doom' to heighten tension
• Advantage & Disadvantage
  • Rolling with advantage, a player may roll two dice and choose the higher number; with disadvantage they must choose the lower number