Repository for the kingston threat study. This study was comissioned by Dr. Josh Bullock of Kingston University.
The primary target at the onset of the study was to investigate the relationships between religion, nationalism, and populism. There was an expressed interested in also understanding how these variables affected anti-immigrant sentiment and different political motivations. The study was conducted near the beginning of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period, and therefore included aspects of COVID 19 and threat as key aspects of the study.
This study employed two methods: survey and system dynamics modeling
For the survey, we worked to devise a set of questions that would best capture the target variables.
To measure religion, we focused specifically on beliefs, behaviors, and identity. We deployed the supernatural belief scale [1], with two additional questions to target those who belief in supernatural forces related to "karma" as well as "universal intentionality". To measure behaviors, we asked how frequently they attended religious services. To measure identity, we deployed two scales: the 4-item social identity scale developed by Postmes et al. [2], [3]. We also employed a measure of identity fusion, a more intense feeling of “oneness” with the group that has additional correlates and differentiating factors from identity [4]–[6]. We specifically used the verbal fusion scale to measure identity fusion [7].
In addition to using the social identity and fusion scales above, we also utilized an adapted nationalism scale [8], we added an item to the scale to address what the authors expected to be aspects of the rising ethno-nationalist trends in the Western world.
In order to capture aspects of immigrant sentiment (and out group sentiment more generally), we included questions from the World Values Survey [9], this was done in order to facilitate future research with correlates from this survey set in the future.
We also asked questions related to different kinds of threats. Specifically, those evolutionarily relevant threats of contagion, predation, natural, and social threats. However, given the current context of many participants, we also asked about financial threats. We found that these different threat sets are key motivating drivers for differing political values in the data, and may provide a more evolutionarily rooted explanation for the patterns discerned in the moral foundations literature [10]–[12].
After survey data collection, we built several hypothesis driven SDMs. After finding one which we believed was both statistically and theoretically valid. We implemented many of its key relationships as a system dynamics model to further explore the possible space of outcomes related to religion, nationalism/populism, and anti-immigrant sentiment. We utilized a threat based architecture that has been previously employed to study threatening situations [13], [14], as during the course of research planning, the COVID-19 pandemic had shut down many Western nations. Using a parameter sweep of the model, we further investigated the extent to which these trends could reveal interesting aspects of the system. Those are reported in the publication.
[1] M. Bluemke, J. Jong, D. Grevenstein, I. Mikloušić, and J. Halberstadt, “Measuring Cross-Cultural Supernatural Beliefs with Self- and Peer-Reports,” PLoS One, vol. 11, no. 10, p. e0164291, 2016.
[2] T. Postmes, R. Spears, A. T. Lee, and R. J. Novak, “Individuality and social influence in groups: inductive and deductive routes to group identity.,” J. Pers. Soc. Psychol., vol. 89, no. 5, pp. 747–63, Nov. 2005.
[3] T. Postmes, S. A. Haslam, and L. Jans, “A single-item measure of social identification: Reliability, validity, and utility.,” Br. J. Soc. Psychol., Nov. 2012.
[4] K. Bonin and J. E. Lane, “Identity Fusion, Devoted Actor Theory, and Extremism,” in Routledge Handbook of Evolution and Religion, New York: Routledge. 2022.
[5] J. E. Lane, Understanding Religion Through Artificial Intelligence: Bonding and Belief. London & New York: Bloomsbury Academic, 2021.
[6] J. Jong, H. Whitehouse, C. Kavanagh, and J. E. Lane, “Shared Trauma Leads to Identity Fusion via Personal Reflection,” PLoS One, vol. 10, no. 12, p. e0145611, 2016.
[7] Á. Gómez, M. L. Brooks, M. D. Buhrmester, A. Vázquez, J. Jetten, and W. B. Swann, “On the nature of identity fusion: insights into the construct and a new measure.,” J. Pers. Soc. Psychol., vol. 100, no. 5, pp. 918–33, May 2011.
[8] L. Mansillo, “Loyal to the Crown: shifting public opinion towards the monarchy in Australia,” Aust. J. Polit. Sci., vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 213–235, 2016.
[9] World Values Survey, “WVS Database,” WVS Database, 2015. [Online]. Available: http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp.
[10] R. Iyer, S. Koleva, J. Graham, P. Ditto, and J. Haidt, “Understanding libertarian morality: The psychological dispositions of self-identified libertarians,” PLoS One, vol. 7, no. 8, 2012.
[11] A. Nilsson and A. Erlandsson, “The Moral Foundations taxonomy: Structural validity and relation to political ideology in Sweden,” Pers. Individ. Dif., vol. 76, pp. 28–32, Apr. 2015.
[12] J. Graham, J. Haidt, and B. A. Nosek, “Liberals and Conservatives Rely on Different Sets of Moral Foundations,” Personal. Process. Individ. Differ., vol. 96, no. 5, pp. 1029–1046, 2009.
[13] F. L. Shults, J. E. Lane, W. J. Wildman, S. Diallo, C. J. Lynch, and R. Gore, “Modeling Terror Management Theory: A computer simulation of the impact of mortality salience on religiosity,” Religion. Brain Behav., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 77–100, 2017.
[14] F. L. Shults, R. Gore, W. J. Wildman, J. Christopher, J. E. Lane, and M. D. Toft, “A Generative Model of the Mutual Escalation of Anxiety Between Religious Groups,” J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul., vol. 21, no. 4, 2018.