Merge pull request #130 from Caliper-Corporation/dev_kyle

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Triangle-Modeling-and-Analytics · Jan 13, 2022 · 5405f8f · 5405f8f
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diff --git a/docs/R/create_dc_est_tables.R b/docs/R/create_dc_est_tables.R
@@ -4,6 +4,38 @@ hh_raw <- read_csv("data/output/_PRIVATE/survey_processing/hh_processed.csv")
 trips_raw <- read_csv("data/output/_PRIVATE/survey_processing/trips_processed.csv")
 cluster <- read_csv("data/input/dc/cluster_def.csv")
 
+# W_HB_W
+df_w_hbw <- trips_raw %>%
+  filter(trip_type == "W_HB_W_All") %>%
+  left_join(
+    hh_raw %>%
+      select(hhid, hh_income_midpt, num_adults),
+    by = "hhid"
+  ) %>%
+  group_by(personid, tour_num, a_taz) %>%
+  slice(1) %>%
+  mutate(
+    HomeTAZ = ifelse(pa_flag == 1, o_taz, d_taz),
+    AvgIncPerWorker = hh_income_midpt / num_workers,
+    LowIncome = ifelse(AvgIncPerWorker < 75000, 1, 0)
+  ) %>%
+  left_join(cluster, by = c("HomeTAZ" = "TAZ")) %>%
+  rename(Home_Cluster = Cluster) %>%
+  left_join(cluster, by = c("o_taz" = "TAZ")) %>%
+  rename(O_Cluster = Cluster) %>%
+  left_join(cluster, by = c("d_taz" = "TAZ")) %>%
+  rename(D_Cluster = Cluster) %>%
+  mutate(ZeroAutoHH = ifelse(num_vehicles == 0, 1, 0)) %>%
+  ungroup() %>%
+  select(
+    EstDataID = seqtripid, personid, hhid, HomeTAZ, o_taz, d_taz, a_taz,
+    HHIncomeMP = hh_income_midpt, AvgIncPerWorker,
+    LowIncome, Home_Cluster, O_Cluster, D_Cluster, Segment = choice_segment,
+    tod,
+    ZeroAutoHH, trip_weight = trip_weight_combined, hh_weight = hh_weight_combined
+  )
+write_csv(df_w_hbw, "w_hbw_est_tbl.csv")
+
 # W_HB_O
 df_w_hbo <- trips_raw %>%
   filter(trip_type == "W_HB_O_All") %>%

diff --git a/docs/auto_ownership.Rmd b/docs/auto_ownership.Rmd
@@ -104,4 +104,58 @@ intuitive. Large numbers of workers in a household has a small positive impact o
 utility of owning 1 auto, but a large impact on owning 2 or more. High income
 households are more likely to own more vehicles. Children make it less likely to
 own 3 or more cars, because there are fewer drivers. Finally, the model's Rho^2
-shows strong predictive power.
+shows strong predictive power.
+
+## Calibration
+
+Even before calibration, the estimated coefficients produced results that
+closely  matched the survey as shown in the table below.
+
+```{r, include=FALSE}
+# These should come from an application of the model before any calibration
+# has been done.
+model <- read_csv("data/input/auto_ownership/uncalibrated_auto_results.csv")
+```
+
+```{r}
+survey <- est_tbl %>%
+  group_by(autos = num_vehicles) %>%
+  summarize(weight = sum(hh_weight_combined)) %>%
+  mutate(pct = weight / sum(weight))
+
+survey %>%
+  select(autos, survey = pct) %>%
+  left_join(model, by = "autos") %>%
+  select(-hh) %>%
+  rename(model = pct) %>%
+  mutate(
+    survey = round(survey * 100, 1),
+    model = round(model * 100, 1)
+  ) %>%
+  rename(Autos = autos, `Survey %` = survey, `Model %` = model) %>%
+  kable() %>%
+  kable_styling(full_width = FALSE)
+
+```
+
+Caliper created an auto-calibration tool for the auto ownership model and used
+it to ensure the model matched the observed shares more closely. Importantly,
+the calibration constants required to do this were small as shown below.
+
+```{r, include=FALSE}
+calib_coeffs_df <- read_csv("../master/resident/auto_ownership/ao_coefficients.csv")
+```
+
+```{r}
+calib_coeffs_df %>%
+  filter(grepl("Added by", Description)) %>%
+  select(Alternative, `Calibration Constant` = Coefficient) %>%
+  kable() %>%
+  kable_styling(full_width = FALSE)
+```
+
+
+```{r, eval=FALSE}
+write_csv(survey, "data/output/auto_ownership/ao_calib_targets.csv")
+```
+
diff --git a/docs/auto_ownership.html b/docs/auto_ownership.html
@@ -372,38 +372,73 @@
     <li>
       <a href="survey_processing.html">Household Survey</a>
     </li>
+    <li>
+      <a href="obs_processing.html">On-Board Survey</a>
+    </li>
   </ul>
 </li>
 <li class="dropdown">
   <a href="#" class="dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown" role="button" aria-expanded="false">
-    Models
+    Resident Models
 
     <span class="caret"></span>
   </a>
   <ul class="dropdown-menu" role="menu">
-    <li>
-      <a href="accessibility.html">Accessibility</a>
-    </li>
     <li>
       <a href="population_synthesis.html">Synthesis</a>
     </li>
     <li>
       <a href="auto_ownership.html">Auto Ownership</a>
     </li>
+    <li>
+      <a href="resident_production.html">Production</a>
+    </li>
     <li>
       <a href="time_of_day.html">Time of Day</a>
     </li>
     <li>
-      <a href="nhb.html">Non-home-based</a>
+      <a href="resident_nonmotorized.html">Non-motorized</a>
+    </li>
+    <li>
+      <a href="parking.html">Parking</a>
+    </li>
+    <li>
+      <a href="resident_dest_choice.html">Destination Choice</a>
+    </li>
+    <li>
+      <a href="nhb.html">Non-homebased</a>
+    </li>
+  </ul>
+</li>
+<li class="dropdown">
+  <a href="#" class="dropdown-toggle" data-toggle="dropdown" role="button" aria-expanded="false">
+    Other Models
+
+    <span class="caret"></span>
+  </a>
+  <ul class="dropdown-menu" role="menu">
+    <li>
+      <a href="accessibility.html">Accessibility</a>
     </li>
     <li>
       <a href="airport.html">Airport</a>
     </li>
+    <li>
+      <a href="ieei.html">Internal/External</a>
+    </li>
+    <li>
+      <a href="commercial_vehicles.html">Commercial Vehicles</a>
+    </li>
+    <li>
+      <a href="assignment_roadway.html">Roadway Assignment</a>
+    </li>
   </ul>
 </li>
       </ul>
       <ul class="nav navbar-nav navbar-right">
-
+        <li>
+  <a href="https://github.com/Caliper-Corporation/TRMG2">Github</a>
+</li>
       </ul>
     </div><!--/.nav-collapse -->
   </div><!--/.container -->
@@ -592,6 +627,25 @@ <h2>Coefficients</h2>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;">
+ASC
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+-0.441
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+-5.751
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+-8.939
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+-12.61
+</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;">
 </td>
@@ -625,6 +679,129 @@ <h2>Coefficients</h2>
 <p>The coefficients all have the right sign and the relative sizes are intuitive. One particularly encouraging result of this model is that households with strong walk and transit accessibility are less likely to own a vehicle and even less likely to own multiple vehicles. This adds another dimension of model sensitivity to transit investments. New transit routes will affect long-term household decisions about auto ownership, which further influence their daily decisions about mode choice.</p>
 <p>Looking in more detail, the trend for coefficients across alternatives is also intuitive. Large numbers of workers in a household has a small positive impact on the utility of owning 1 auto, but a large impact on owning 2 or more. High income households are more likely to own more vehicles. Children make it less likely to own 3 or more cars, because there are fewer drivers. Finally, the model’s Rho^2 shows strong predictive power.</p>
 </div>
+<div id="calibration" class="section level2">
+<h2>Calibration</h2>
+<p>Even before calibration, the estimated coefficients produced results that closely matched the survey as shown in the table below.</p>
+<table class="table" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
+<thead>
+<tr>
+<th style="text-align:right;">
+Autos
+</th>
+<th style="text-align:right;">
+Survey %
+</th>
+<th style="text-align:right;">
+Model %
+</th>
+</tr>
+</thead>
+<tbody>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+0
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+5.1
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+5.3
+</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+1
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+31.5
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+33.5
+</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+2
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+41.7
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+37.9
+</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+3
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+15.3
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+13.4
+</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+4
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+6.5
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+9.9
+</td>
+</tr>
+</tbody>
+</table>
+<p>Caliper created an auto-calibration tool for the auto ownership model and used it to ensure the model matched the observed shares more closely. Importantly, the calibration constants required to do this were small as shown below.</p>
+<table class="table" style="width: auto !important; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
+<thead>
+<tr>
+<th style="text-align:left;">
+Alternative
+</th>
+<th style="text-align:right;">
+Calibration Constant
+</th>
+</tr>
+</thead>
+<tbody>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+v1
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+-0.0706
+</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+v2
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+0.1128
+</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+v3
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+0.1454
+</td>
+</tr>
+<tr>
+<td style="text-align:left;">
+v4
+</td>
+<td style="text-align:right;">
+-0.4734
+</td>
+</tr>
+</tbody>
+</table>
+</div>
 
 <br>
 <br>

diff --git a/docs/data/input/_PRIVATE/.gitignore b/docs/data/input/_PRIVATE/.gitignore
@@ -2,4 +2,5 @@
 # be pushed to GitHub. Contact Leta Huntsinger to request access to these files.
 
 *
-!.gitignore
+!.gitignore
+!note.txt
diff --git a/docs/data/input/_PRIVATE/note.txt b/docs/data/input/_PRIVATE/note.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+This folder holds survey and other sensitive information used to estimate
+TRMG2 that cannot be shared publicly on GitHub. This info is not required
+for model application, but if needed for model re-estimation or calibration,
+reach out to ITRE staff.
diff --git a/docs/data/input/auto_ownership/ao_final_coefficients.csv b/docs/data/input/auto_ownership/ao_final_coefficients.csv
@@ -6,5 +6,6 @@ Seniors,,0.143987,0.143987,,
 Income,,1.68663,2.53124,2.72387,2.95781
 Walk Accessibility,,,-0.395344,-0.60468,-1.0608
 Transit Accessibility,,-0.369765,-0.42533,-0.535768,-0.535768
+ASC,,-0.441283,-5.7512,-8.93905,-12.6101
 ,,,,,
 Adjusted Rho^2,0.41,,,,
diff --git a/docs/data/input/auto_ownership/uncalibrated_auto_results.csv b/docs/data/input/auto_ownership/uncalibrated_auto_results.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+autos,hh,pct
+0,39155,0.053466699
+1,245236,0.334873178
+2,277527,0.378966989
+3,97839,0.133600519
+4,72568,0.099092616
diff --git a/docs/data/input/resident_productions/modeled_trips_uncalibrated.csv b/docs/data/input/resident_productions/modeled_trips_uncalibrated.csv
@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 trip_type,model_trips
-N_HB_K12_All,568912.71
-N_HB_OD_Long,921200.82
-N_HB_OD_Short,717463.98
-N_HB_OMED_All,99865.14
-N_HB_OME_All,999918.56
-W_HB_EK12_All,58643.39
-W_HB_O_All,292151.12
-W_HB_W_All,789297.83
+N_HB_K12_All,567062.95
+N_HB_OD_Long,916289.03
+N_HB_OD_Short,558955.28
+N_HB_OMED_All,102739.29
+N_HB_OME_All,997883.18
+W_HB_EK12_All,58640.2
+W_HB_O_All,288692.04
+W_HB_W_All,789296.46
diff --git a/docs/data/output/_PRIVATE/.gitignore b/docs/data/output/_PRIVATE/.gitignore
@@ -2,4 +2,5 @@
 # be pushed to GitHub. Contact Leta Huntsinger to request access to these files.
 
 *
-!.gitignore
+!.gitignore
+!note.txt
diff --git a/docs/data/output/_PRIVATE/note.txt b/docs/data/output/_PRIVATE/note.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+This folder holds survey and other sensitive information used to estimate
+TRMG2 that cannot be shared publicly on GitHub. This info is not required
+for model application, but if needed for model re-estimation or calibration,
+reach out to ITRE staff.