This is a python program to predict voter’s ethnicity based on individual background information obtained from Voter Registration Records.
Voter Registration Record contains voter’s location, name, age and gender. Example:
| countyemsid | bctcb2000 | lastname | firstname | birthdate | gender |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0000000Y | 50020011 | NASSAR | LINDA | 19481215 | F |
where countyemsid is voter’s unique id, and bctcb2000 is geocoded location feature.
Combining datasets from Census, we implement method proposed by Kosuke Imai and Kabir Khanna(imai.princeton.edu/research/files/race.pdf).
- Census Frequently Occurring Surnames list can be obtained from http://www.census.gov/topics/population/genealogy/data/2000_surnames.html
- Census 2000 census block group level dataset can be obtained from http://old.socialexplorer.com/pub/reportdata/GeoSelection.aspx?reportid=R10950075
- Census 2000 census block level dataset can be obtained from NHGIS http://www.nhgis.org
Test on Florida's voter file, and drop voters whose surname are not in census surname list. 2010 Census dataset is used to provide geolocation information.
- surname-only prediction accuracy: 78.0%
- surname & census block prediction accuracy: 83.5%
