This project uses data from a time series of recorded coal mining disasters in the UK from 1851 to 1962. Sometime during this period, new legislation was passed that changed safety regulations. The number of disasters is thought to have gone down because of these changes, but we don’t know for sure when this change-point occurred.
Here I go through the workflow to estimate when the change-point occurred, and the rate of disasters before and after the change-point, using MCMC.
To see a full description, see the blog post here.