fire-forecast

Tool for forecast of fire radiative power.

Installation

1. Clone the repository with:

git clone git@github.com:ECMWFCode4Earth/fire-forecast.git

2. Install the conda environment

To create the environment switch to the fire-forcast folder created by the git clone above and executeone of the following depending on your system:

# For system without GPU:
conda env create -f ci/environment_cpu.yaml
# For system with GPU
conda env create -f ci/environment_gpu.yaml

This will install poetry as well as the dependencies that are not installable with poetry in the new environment called fire-forecast (Further packages will then be managed by poetry in this environment).

3. Activate the environment with:

conda activate fire-forecast

4. Install the fire-forecast module with poetry

To install the other dependencies of the project run the following from the fire-forcast folder created by the git clone:

poetry install 

This will install all dependencies of fire-forecast and the module itself.

5. Install the pre-commit hook to automatically format and test your code before a commit:

pre-commit install

Done!

Remarks

• To test the installation you can run:
  • pytest in the fire-forcast folder created by the git clone
  • pre-commit run --all-files tests the pre-commit hook. black isort and flake8 should be installed and the hook should be run and show: "Passed" or "Skipped" for the different modules.
• To contribute within the project create a new branch with: git checkout -b branch_name and use a pull request on github.com to merge with the main branch, when you are done with the new feature.
• To add a new dependency with poetry:
  • poetry add package name (works similar to conda install or pip install)

Usage

The fire_forecast module is subdivided into three main parts:

1. fire_forecast.data_retrieval/fire_forecast.data_preparation for downloading/preprocessing data into various forms
2. fire_forecast.deep_learning for creating, training and loading deep learning models
3. fire_forecast.evaluation for evaluating models and their performance against classical methods In the following we will give a short overview of the different parts and how to use them.

All scripts can be called with python -m fire_forecast.module_name.script_name -h to get a help message.

An example script to test and evaluate already trained NN (config and checkpoint file exist) and to compare it against classic models is provided with EvaluateModels.py.

1. Data preparation

1.1 Downloading data

A script to retrieve data can be found here: fire_forecast/data_retrieval/retrieve_meteo_fire.sh The result is gridded data in a netcdf format that includes dataarrays for frpfire and offire. The models are designed, to take input in form of a fire timeseries, which are produced by the preprocessing tools.

1.2 Selecting timeseries of pixels with fire

First timeseries that contain fires are extracted using the script fire_forecast.data_preparation.SelectFirePixels. This will produce 3 by 3 pixels wide timeseries which contain at least one recorded active fire. The usage is as follows:

usage: SelectFirePixels_FRP.py [-h] [--i I [I ...]] OutputPath

Script to preprocess GFAS and Meteo Data for machine learning, run script e.g. with python SelectFirePixels_FRP.py <outputpath> --i <inputdatapath1> <inputdatapath2> <inputdatapath3>

positional arguments:
  OutputPath            Enter FilePath to save output

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
  --i I [I ...], -InputPathList I [I ...]
                        Enter filepaths to inputdata (.nc fomat), needs at least a GFAS dataset with frpfire and offire variable

The resulting timeseries can be used for analysing longer timeseries than the two day snippets that are used in the training of the models.

1.3 Cutting timeseries into 2 day samples for the deep learning models

The goal of our models is to predict the fire radiative power of a full day, based on the fire of the previous day, its rate of measurement and meteorological data of the full 2 days. To split the long timeseries into 2 day samples, we use the fire_forecast.data_preparation.cut_data_all_samples script. The script takes a netcdf file with the fire timeseries and the meteorological data and splits it into 2 day samples. Additionally it splits the data into train, test and validation sets. The usage is as follows:

usage: cut_data_all_shifts.py [-h] [--output_path OUTPUT_PATH] [--fire_number_threshold FIRE_NUMBER_THRESHOLD] [--measurement_threshold MEASUREMENT_THRESHOLD] [--validation_split VALIDATION_SPLIT]
                              [--test_split TEST_SPLIT]
                              data_paths [data_paths ...]

Script to select 48 hour snippets from long timeseries. Additionally, snippets are produced with 23 houly shifts for all possible 48 hour snippets.

positional arguments:
  data_paths            Paths of data to read.

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
  --output_path OUTPUT_PATH
                        Path to output dataset.
  --fire_number_threshold FIRE_NUMBER_THRESHOLD
                        Threshold value for number of fires in the 48 hour snippets (no threshold for intensity). Default: 1.
  --measurement_threshold MEASUREMENT_THRESHOLD
                        Threshold value for the number of measured values in the 48 hour snippets (non-zero values in offire). Default: 1.
  --validation_split VALIDATION_SPLIT
                        Validation split fraction (between 0 and 1). Default: 0.
  --test_split TEST_SPLIT
                        Test split fraction (between 0 and 1). Default: 0.

1.4 Converting the data to h5 format

The data is saved in netcdf format, which is not ideal for training deep learning models. Therefore we convert the data to h5 format with the fire_forecast.data_preparation.create_training_set script. The usage is as follows:

usage: create_training_set.py [-h] [--filename_start FILENAME_START] [--filter_nans FILTER_NANS] [--fire_number_threshold_first_day FIRE_NUMBER_THRESHOLD_FIRST_DAY]
                              [--measurement_threshold_first_day MEASUREMENT_THRESHOLD_FIRST_DAY] [--fire_number_threshold_second_day FIRE_NUMBER_THRESHOLD_SECOND_DAY]
                              [--measurement_threshold_second_day MEASUREMENT_THRESHOLD_SECOND_DAY]
                              input_path output_file meteo_variables [meteo_variables ...]

Create a training set in h5 format from the postprocessed data snippets in netCDF format. Additional filtering can be applied to the data.

positional arguments:
  input_path            Path to the postprocessed data file or directory of files thatare to be concatenated.
  output_file           Path to the output file.
  meteo_variables       List of meteo variables to include in the training set.

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
  --filename_start FILENAME_START
                        File name start of all files to choose from the input directory.
  --filter_nans FILTER_NANS
                        Whether to filter out nan values. Default: True.
  --fire_number_threshold_first_day FIRE_NUMBER_THRESHOLD_FIRST_DAY
                        Data with less fire occurencies (non-zero values in frpfire) on the first day are filtered out. Default: 1.
  --measurement_threshold_first_day MEASUREMENT_THRESHOLD_FIRST_DAY
                        Data with less measurements (non-zero values in offire) on the first day are filtered out. Default: 1.
  --fire_number_threshold_second_day FIRE_NUMBER_THRESHOLD_SECOND_DAY
                        Data with less fire occurencies (non-zero values in frpfire) on the second day are filtered out. Default: 1.
  --measurement_threshold_second_day MEASUREMENT_THRESHOLD_SECOND_DAY
                        Data with less measurements (non-zero values in offire) on the second day are filtered out. Default: 1.

2. Deep learning

Deep learning tools are found in the module fire_forecast.deep_learning. Here, you find the desciption of the main parts of the module and how to use them.

2.1 Training a new model

New models can be either trained by the script fire_forecast.deep_learning.train or using the Iterator object of fire_forecast.deep_learning.iterator. The model as well as the training are defined via a config file in a yaml format. Examples of these config files with descriptions of the parameters are found in the directory fire_forecast/deep_learning/configs.

By script: The script fire_forecast.deep_learning.train takes a config file as input and trains a model. The usage is as follows:

usage: train.py [-h] config

positional arguments:
  config      Path to the config file.

options:
  -h, --help  show this help message and exit

By iterator: Use the iterator as follows:

from fire_forecast.deep_learning.iterator import Iterator #Import the module
from fire_forecast.utils import read_config #Import the function to read the config file

config = read_config("path/to/config.yaml") #Read the config file
iterator = Iterator(config) #Create an iterator object
iterator.train() #Train the model

2.2 Initializing/loading a model

The easiest way to initialize/load a model is via the load_model_from_config function of fire_forecast.deep_learning.models:

from fire_forecast.deep_learning.models import load_model_from_config
from fire_forecast.deep_learning.utils import read_config

config = read_config("path/to/config.yaml") #Read the config file
model = load_model_from_config(config["model"]) #Load the model from the config part for the model

In the config file, there is the option to load the parameters of a pretrained model which will then automatically be done.

Alternatively, to initialize the model directly import the respective model. E.g. ofr the ResidualNetwork for the parameters see the docstring of the models:

from fire_forecast.deep_learning.models import ResidualNetwork
model = ResidualNetwork(...)

2.3 Loading a dataset

To load a dataset the FireDataset class of fire_forecast.deep_learning.firedataset can be used. It is recommended to use the only_center=True option, which will only load the center pixel of the 3x3 grid of the timeseries. This is the default option. An item of the FireDataset consists of 3 parts:

• fire_features: 24 hourly fire radiative power of the previous day and the rate of measurement of the previous day
• meteo_features: 24 hourly meteorological data of the previous day and the current day
• labels: 24 hourly fire radiative power of the current day and the rate of measurement of the current day

To predict with the model the data first needs to be put into the correct shape. This can be done with the flatten_features function of fire_forecast.deep_learning.utils:

from fire_forecast.deep_learning.firedataset import FireDataset
from fire_forecast.deep_learning.utils import flatten_features

dataset = FireDataset("path/to/dataset.hdf", only_center=True)

fire_features, meteo_features, labels = dataset[0]
input_features_in_correct_shape = flatten_features(fire_features, meteo_features)

2.4 Predicting with a model

The full path to predict with a model is:

from fire_forecast.deep_learning.models import load_model_from_config
from fire_forecast.deep_learning.utils import read_config, flatten_features
from fire_forecast.deep_learning.firedataset import FireDataset
import torch

config = read_config("path/to/config.yaml") #Read the config file
model = load_model_from_config(config["model"]) #Load the model from the config part for the model
dataset = FireDataset("path/to/dataset.hdf", only_center=True) #Load the dataset

fire_features, meteo_features, labels = dataset[0] #Get the first item of the dataset
input_features_in_correct_shape = flatten_features(fire_features, meteo_features) #Put the features into the correct shape
prediction = model(torch.from_numpy(input_features_in_correct_shape)) #Predict with the model

Note that this assumes that the model and the data are on the same "device". If the model is on a GPU use .to(model.device) on the input.

2.5 Predicting with multiple models

To predict with multiple models, you can use the Ensemble class of fire_forecast.deep_learning.ensemble:

from fire_forecast.deep_learning.ensemble import Ensemble
from fire_forecast.deep_learning.fire_dataset import FireDataset
from fire_forecast.deep_learning.utils import read_config

configlist = [
    "path/to/config1.yaml",
    "path/to/config2.yaml",
    "path/to/config3.yaml",
]
configs = [read_config(config)["model"] for config in configlist]
ensemble = Ensemble(*configs) #Load the ensemble of models
dataset = FireDataset("path/to/dataset.hdf", only_center=True) #Load the dataset

fire_features, meteo_features, labels = dataset[0] #Get the first item of the dataset
ensemble_mean, ensemble_std = ensemble.predict(fire_features, meteo_features) #Predict with the ensemble

3. Evaluation

This code contains a set of functions and methods for evaluating the performance of forecasting models. The code is written in Python and uses several libraries such as NumPy, xarray, Matplotlib, Pandas, and Scikit-learn.

3.1 Functions

_check_dims(y_true, y_pred, weights=None)

This function checks the dimensions of the input arrays and reshapes them if necessary. It returns the reshaped arrays.

mae(y_true, y_pred, weights=None, keepdims=False)

This function calculates the mean absolute error between the true and predicted values. It takes the following arguments:

• y_true: An array-like object containing the true values.
• y_pred: An array-like object containing the predicted values.
• weights: An array-like object containing the weights for each sample.
• keepdims: A boolean indicating whether to keep the dimensions of the target variable.

rmse(y_true, y_pred, weights=None, keepdims=False)

This function calculates the root mean squared error between the true and predicted values. It takes the following arguments:

• y_true: An array-like object containing the true values.
• y_pred: An array-like object containing the predicted values.
• weights: An array-like object containing the weights for each sample.
• keepdims: A boolean indicating whether to keep the dimensions of the target variable.

correlation(y_true, y_pred, keepdims=False)

This function calculates the correlation between the true and predicted values. It takes the following arguments:

• y_true: An array-like object containing the true values.
• y_pred: An array-like object containing the predicted values.
• keepdims: A boolean indicating whether to keep the dimensions of the target variable.

train_models(X, y)

This function trains a set of models on the given data. It returns a dictionary containing the trained models. It takes the following arguments:

• X: An array-like object containing the features.
• y: An array-like object containing the target variable.

predict(models, X)

This function predicts the target variable using the given models. It returns a dictionary containing the predictions. It takes the following arguments:

• models: A dictionary containing the trained models.
• X: An array-like object containing the features.

evaluate_models(models, X, y_true, predictions=None, weights=None)

This function compares the predictions of the given models to the true values. It returns a pandas DataFrame containing the metrics for each model. It takes the following arguments:

• models: A dictionary containing the trained models.
• X: An array-like object containing the features.
• y_true: An array-like object containing the true values.
• predictions: A dictionary containing the predictions.
• weights: An array-like object containing the weights for each sample.

3.2 Example (see ~/software/fire-forecast/EvaluateModels.py for a working example)

from fire_forecast.deep_learning import Iterator
from fire_forecast.forecasting import evaluation

# Iterator from deep_learning module
iterator: Iterator = ...


# Training

fire_features, meteo_features, labels = iterator.train_dataset[:]
features = flatten_features(fire_features, meteo_features)
target_values, weights = flatten_labels_and_weights(labels)

# The training features with shape (n_samples, n_features)
X: np.array = features
# The training targets with shape (n_samples, n_targets)
y: np.array = target_values

models = evaluation.train_models(X, y)

# Testing

fire_features, meteo_features, labels = iterator.test_dataset[:]
features = flatten_features(fire_features, meteo_features)
target_values, weights = flatten_labels_and_weights(labels)

with torch.no_grad():
    predictions = model(torch.from_numpy(features))
    predictions = predictions.numpy()

# The test features with shape (n_samples, n_features)
X_test: np.array = features
# The test targets with shape (n_samples, n_targets)
y_test: np.array = target_values
# The predictions of other models as a dictionary of model name to y_pred with shape (n_samples, n_targets)
predictions: dict = {
    "NN": predictions,
    "Persistence": fire_features,
}
# The weights of the labels as np.array with shape (n_samples, n_targets)
weights_test: np.array = weights

metrics = evaluation.evaluate_models(
    models=models,
    X=X_test,
    y=y_test,
    predictions=predictions,
    weights=weights_test,
)

metrics.head()

Examples for full Workflow

In this section you will find a full example for the usage of the tools, starting from the gridded data in netCDF format, to the training of your own models. The expected starting point is the following:

• fire-forecast is installed (for example in the file ~/software/fire-forecast)
• Gridded data for frpfire and offire are available (for example in the file ~/data/raw/fire_data.nc)
• Meteo data is available (for example in the files ~/data/raw/meteo_data1.nc and ~/data/raw/meteo_data2.nc) The follwing steps are not all mandatory (e.g. w.r.t. file/folder names) but are meant as a starting point with adjusted file names for your situation

1. Select pixels

In our example we first need to select the pixels with fire at any point. In our example this would work like this:

First create a directory for the output:

mkdir ~/data/timeseries

Then run the script (which takes about a few hours):

python -m fire_forecast.data_preparation.SelectFirePixels_FRP ~/data/timeseries/TimeSeriesData.nc --i ~/data/raw/fire_data.nc ~/data/raw/meteo_data1.nc ~/data/raw/meteo_data2.nc

This will concatenate the given data and select the interesting coordinates. The timeseries will contain of the 3x3 pixels surrounding the interesting pixels. As a result there will be two files:

• ~/data/timeseries/TimeSeriesData.nc which contains the timeseries of the selected pixels for all given fire and meteo data
• ~/data/timeseries/TimeSeriesDataSampleCoords.nc which contains only the coordinates of the selected pixels

2. Cut timeseries into 2 day samples

Now we need to cut these into training samples, namely select 48 hour snippets with at least a certain amount of fire occurrences. Additionally we need to separate into train, test and validation sets. In our example we want as much data as possible for training, but there should be at least one fire recorded in the 48 hour window. Finally we not only want the data from 0 to 0 UTC but also all possible shifted timeseries to maximize our data. Note that the full data has to fit into the memory for this step. First create a directory for the output:

mkdir ~/data/timeseries_snippets

Then run the script (which takes about a few hours):

python -m fire_forecast.data_preparation.cut_data_all_shifts ~/data/timeseries/TimeSeriesData.nc --output_path ~/data/timeseries_snippets/TimeSeriesDataSnippets.nc --test_split 0.1 --validation_split 0.1

This will create many files in the directory ~/data/timeseries_snippets/:

TimeSeriesDataSnippets_test_0.nc
TimeSeriesDataSnippets_test_1.nc
...
TimeSeriesDataSnippets_test_23.nc
TimeSeriesDataSnippets_train_0.nc
...
TimeSeriesDataSnippets_train_23.nc
TimeSeriesDataSnippets_validation_0.nc
...
TimeSeriesDataSnippets_validation_23.nc

These contain train, test, and validation for all 24 hourly shifts. It is ensured, that there are unique timeseries reserved for each category such that one will not have two snippets from the same timeseries in train and test for example.

3. Convert to h5 format for training

While the netCDF format is great to hold additional information about position and time of the fires, these are not needed in the training, such that we strip all information and convert it to h5 files for a more machine learning friendly format. Additionally one can now filter the snippets additionally by applying threshold for the number of recorded fires on the first or second day (however no filtering by intensity is possible at the moment). In this test case we apply the condition that there is at least one non-zero fire value on the first and the second day (default). The categories can be separated by the filename_start argument. Additionally one has to specifiy the meteo variables to include. in our case we choose the "Skin temperature" (skt) and the "Volumetric soil water layer 1" (swvl1).

First create a directory for the output:

mkdir ~/data/timeseries_snippets_h5

Then run the scripts:

python -m fire_forecast.data_preparation.create_training_set ~/data/timeseries_snippets ~/data/timeseries_snippets_h5/train.hdf skt swvl1 --filename_start TimeSeriesDataSnippets_train

python -m fire_forecast.data_preparation.create_training_set ~/data/timeseries_snippets ~/data/timeseries_snippets_h5/test.hdf skt swvl1 --filename_start TimeSeriesDataSnippets_test

python -m fire_forecast.data_preparation.create_training_set ~/data/timeseries_snippets ~/data/timeseries_snippets_h5/validation.hdf skt swvl1 --filename_start TimeSeriesDataSnippets_validation

The files for all shifts will be collected and saved to one file for the training of the models. The directory ~/data/timeseries_snippets_h5 then contains the following files:

• train.hdf
• test.hdf
• validation.hdf

4. Train a model

The data is now ready for the training of a model. The model as well as the parameters for the training process are specified via a configuration file in the yaml format which is human and machine readable. An example given here: ~/software/fire-forecast/fire_forecast/deep_learning/configs/example_residual.yaml. We will build upon this for our training.

Again create a directory for the training output, namely the model checkpoints, the validation loss and the config. To configure the run we will copy the example config and adjust it to our needs:

mkdir ~/data/run0
cp ~/software/fire-forecast/fire_forecast/deep_learning/configs/example_residual.yaml ~/data/run0/original_config.yaml

Now change the lines for data and output in the config to:

output:
    path: /data/run0 # where to save the model
    checkpoint_interval: 1 # save a checkpoint every epoch

data:
    train_path: ~/data/timeseries_snippets_h5/train.hdf
    test_path: ~/data/timeseries_snippets_h5/test.hdf
    validation_path: ~/data/timeseries_snippets_h5/validation.hdf
    variables: null # is filled automatically by the iterator

If a larger number of meteo variables is used also adjust the input size of the model (not needed in this example).

• If only_center is true in the config: input_size = 48 * (number_of_meteo_variables + 1)
  In our case number_of_meteo_variables = 2 -> input_size = 48 * 3 = 144
• If only_center is false in the config: input_size = 9 * 24 * (number_of_meteo_variables + 1)

Now we can start the training with:

python -m fire_forecast.deep_learning.train ~/data/run0/original_config.yaml

The result is a folder ~/data/run0 with the following content:

• orignal_config.yaml: The original config file
• config.yaml: The config file with filled in data to reproduce the run
• checkpoint_0.pt: First checkpoint of the model
• checkpoint_1.pt: Second checkpoint of the model
• validation_loss.txt: A file containing the validation loss for each epoch. This can be used to determine the best checkpoint for the model. (loaded with pd.read_csv("validation_loss.txt"))

To now use a trained model fill in the checkpoint_path argument of the model part of the config file ~/data/run0/config.yaml.

5. Evaluate the model

Finally with the config file and the desired checkpoint selected you can use the script ~/software/fire-forecast/EvaluateModels.py to test the model against persistance and other classical methods:

python ~/software/fire-forecast/EvaluateModels.py ~/data/run0/config.yaml -Plot_TimeSeries 0 -savepath ~/data/run0/