Jupiter Notebook can be installed or used in browser to run the program. More information can be found here. Current data can be accessed here at Our World And Data's complete updated dataset. Data used for this study was taken after 1940-2022.
Required packages are below:
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import scipy.optimize as optimize
import math
The full written paper on the topic with all figures and references can be found here.
Greenhouse emissions in the Earth's atmosphere are increasing at a detrimental rate. This rate is likely to rise as humans continue burning fossil fuels to produce both power and energy for an unsustainable population. This paper aims to further build a mathematical interpretation of the current data on fossil fuel emissions coupled with global climate change temperatures to delineate its impact on our planet. Furthermore, a mathematical interpretation will be able to ascertain if an overall global temperature goal can be achieved with the collected data. To explain the correlation between annual carbon emissions and whether or not a temperature range is viable to reach, a continuous model was used. Using atmospheric CO2 emissions from the past 78 years, a model was fitted to illustrate the current growth rates. The results of this study indicate that the target range of the Paris Climate Agreement can be achieved with a 1:3% to 4:6% carbon emission reduction per year. Through the simulation study, it becomes clear that exhaustive and consistent carbon emission reduction efforts via policy changes must be implemented to reach safe atmospheric temperatures.
Credits for contributions to Alexander Kayssi and Stavros Greer of the Department of Physics & Astronomy and Cat Anh Nguyen of the Department of Mathematics & Statistics at McMaster University.