The Economic Demography of COVID-19 in Paraná: diagnosis and perspectives

The COVID-19 epidemic began in Latin America and the Caribbean in late February 2020, two months after it started in China and one month after it started in Europe. On April 15, official data reported by the Brazilian Ministry of Health revealed a total of 28,320 confirmed cases and 1,736 deaths, a lethality rate of 6.1 percent. In Paraná State, there are 803 confirmed cases (3 percent) and 38 deaths (2.3 percent). Compared to European and Asian countries, where COVID-19 contagion is at a more advanced stage, the growth rate of the epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean is even higher. Also, the low availability and coverage of HIV testing COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean has made it difficult to measure the current and actual stage of the epidemic. This scenario may indicate that there is a great underreporting of cases and deaths. Provided the urgency of the topic, and in a partnership with the Secretary of State for Health of the State of Paraná, the goal of this research project to analyze the distribution and spatial and temporal evolution of demographic indicators related to COVID-19 in the state of Paraná. As specific objectives, we have: 1. Investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of confirmed cases and deaths; 2. Analyze the age distribution and the main age groups at risk of the disease; 3. Correlate COVID-19 indicators with demographic and economic indicators, such as: Paranaense Municipal Performance Index (IPD-M), GDP per capita; 4. Analyze trends in the total fertility rate, specific fertility rates, mortality due to and post-COVID migratory flows; 5. Apply methodologies to correct the underreporting of notification of infected people and deaths based on international methodologies.