Euro Cup 2016 Predictor

Simply, this predictor is based on typical "feature+classifier" machine learning framework.

• feature: ELO rating, win/draw/lose rate, goal/lost-goal since 1920
• label: goal difference between team1 and team2
• classifier: Random Forest Classifier

The code is a little in chaos due to limited time. Maybe I'll update it.

Run

environment: Python2.7 with scikit-learn package installed;

1. run group_stage.py to get group stage results (./result/nation_point.csv and ./result/promoted_nation.csv);
2. run knockout_stage.py to get final results (./result/knockout_result.csv).

Prediction Results

Champion

Germany

Knockout Stage

round	team1	team2	result
16	france	ukraine	3
16	spain	italy	1
16	england	romania	1
16	portugal	ireland	3
16	germany	romania	2
16	belgium	czechia	1
16	switzerland	poland	2
16	slovakia	austria	1
8	france	spain	1
8	england	portugal	3
8	germany	belgium	1
8	switzerland	slovakia	1
4	france	england	1
4	germany	switzerland	2
2	france	germany	-1

Group Stage

Standings

group	team	points	goal difference
a	switzerland	7	3
a	france	5	1
a	romania	4	1
a	albania	0	-5
b	england	5	3
b	slovakia	5	2
b	wales	2	-2
b	russia	2	-3
c	germany	7	4
c	ukraine	4	-1
c	poland	4	-1
c	northern ireland	1	-2
d	spain	9	3
d	czechia	4	1
d	turkey	2	-1
d	croatia	1	-3
e	belgium	7	2
e	ireland	5	1
e	italy	4	0
e	sweden	0	-3
f	portugal	9	6
f	austria	6	3
f	hungary	3	-4
f	iceland	0	-5

Matches Details

((team1,team2),result)
(('france', 'romania'), 0)
(('france', 'albania'), 1)
(('france', 'switzerland'), 0)
(('romania', 'albania'), 2)
(('romania', 'switzerland'), -1)
(('albania', 'switzerland'), -2)
(('england', 'russia'), 3)
(('england', 'wales'), 0)
(('england', 'slovakia'), 0)
(('russia', 'wales'), 0)
(('russia', 'slovakia'), 0)
(('wales', 'slovakia'), -2)
(('germany', 'ukraine'), 2)
(('germany', 'poland'), 2)
(('germany', 'northern ireland'), 0)
(('ukraine', 'poland'), 0)
(('ukraine', 'northern ireland'), 1)
(('poland', 'northern ireland'), 1)
(('spain', 'czechia'), 1)
(('spain', 'turkey'), 1)
(('spain', 'croatia'), 1)
(('czechia', 'turkey'), 0)
(('czechia', 'croatia'), 2)
(('turkey', 'croatia'), 0)
(('belgium', 'italy'), 1)
(('belgium', 'ireland'), 0)
(('belgium', 'sweden'), 1)
(('italy', 'ireland'), 0)
(('italy', 'sweden'), 1)
(('ireland', 'sweden'), 1)
(('portugal', 'iceland'), 2)
(('portugal', 'austria'), 1)
(('portugal', 'hungary'), 3)
(('iceland', 'austria'), -2)
(('iceland', 'hungary'), -1)
(('austria', 'hungary'), 2)

Thanks

historcal data from fedebayle
euro2016 data from nowaycomputer promotion rules of euro2016 from Sohu