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@@ -1,32 +1,49 @@
# Sustainability Analytics for Low Earth Orbit Satellites (saleos)

Welcome to the `saleos` repository.
Welcome to the Sustainability Analytics for Low Earth Orbit Satellites
(`saleos`) repository.

There is increasing concern about adverse environmental impacts produced by Low Earth Orbit (LEO) megaconstellations.
Paper Citation
--------------
- Ogutu, O. B., Oughton, E. J., Wilson, A. R, & Rao, A. (2023). Sustainability
assessment of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite broadband mega-constellations.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.02338

While LEO megaconstellations are fronted as an alternative to terrestrial broadband networks, there is a need to place thousands of satellite assets in orbit to provide global coverage.

`Figure 1` illustrates the configuration of three of the main LEO satellite constellations, including Amazon's Kuiper, OneWeb and SpaceX's Starlink.
There is increasing concern about adverse environmental impacts produced by
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) megaconstellations. The `saleos` codebase provides an
open-source integrated assessment model capable of concurrently estimating
environmental emissions, broadband capacity, and social and financial costs
for different LEO satellite networks.

We focus on evaluating Amazon's Kuiper, Eutelsat's OneWeb and SpaceX's Starlink,
with these three LEO constellations visualized in `Figure 1`. The `saleos`
codebase allows you to compare these LEO constellations against a representative
Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) operator.

#### Figure 1 Three key LEO constellations: Kuiper, OneWeb and Starlink (Details as of December 2023).
<p align="center">
<img src="/docs/a_fig_1.jpg" />
<img src="/docs/a_fig_1.png" />
</p>

Emissions produced during the launching of satellites depend on the utilized rocket vehicle.

Most operators planning or launching LEO broadband satellites have used (or intend to use) SpaceX’s Falcon-9 or Falcon-Heavy, the European Space Agency’s Ariane rocket system, or prior to Spring 2022, Russia’s Soyuz-FG rocket, as detailed in `Figure 2`.
Emissions produced during the launching of satellites depend on the
utilized rocket vehicle. Most operators planning or launching LEO broadband
satellites have used (or intend to use) SpaceX’s Falcon-9 or Falcon-Heavy,
the European Space Agency’s Ariane rocket system, or prior to Spring 2022,
Russia’s Soyuz-FG rocket, as detailed in `Figure 2`.

#### Figure 2 Details of launch rocket systems.
<p align="center">
<img src="/docs/b_fig_2.jpg" />
<img src="/docs/b_fig_2.png" />
</p>

The `saleos` codebase provides an open-source integrated assessment model capable of concurrently estimating environmental emissions, broadband capacity, and costs for different LEO satellite networks.

## Sustainability metrics

The `saleos` codebase is capable of estimating a range of sustainability metrics. `Figure 3` illustrates a selection of these including the estimated annual emissions per subscriber (subplot b), potential mean peak monthly traffic per subscriber (subplot d), and the financial cost per subscriber (subplot f).
The `saleos` codebase is capable of estimating a range of sustainability
metrics. `Figure 3` illustrates a selection of these including the estimated
annual emissions per subscriber (subplot b), potential mean peak capacity per
subscriber (subplot c), and the financial costs per subscriber (subplot e/f).

#### Figure 3 Aggregate sustainability metrics for Kuiper, OneWeb, Starlink and a hypothetical GEO operator.
<p align = 'center'>
Expand All @@ -35,32 +52,32 @@ The `saleos` codebase is capable of estimating a range of sustainability metrics

## Method

The method is based on (i) a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model of environmental emissions and other impacts,(ii) a stochastic engineering simulation model estimating constellation capacity using the Friss Transmission Equation, (iii) demand based on different adoption scenarios, and (iv) a techno-economic model of the associated financial costs. `Figure 4` illustrates the approach.
The method is based on (i) a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) model of environmental
emissions and other impacts,(ii) a stochastic engineering simulation model
estimating constellation capacity using the Friss Transmission Equation, (iii)
potential traffic demand based on different adoption scenarios, and (iv) a
techno-economic model of the associated social and financial costs. `Figure 4`
illustrates the integrated assessment approach.

#### Figure 4 Integrated assessment method.
#### Figure 4 Integrated assessment modeling approach.
<p align = 'center'>
<img src= '/docs/model.png' />
<img src= '/docs/method_box_diagram.png' />
</p>

## Required data

To use `saleos` the following datasets are required.
1. Launch history dataset : These dataset contains information about the number of launches, dates and types of rockets used by constellations that have already launched their satellites. In this case, Starlink and OneWeb.
2. Life cycle assessment dataset : This dataset contains the emission types and impact category of major rockets and constellations.
3. Scenario data : This file contains the information that is used to estimate the emission of constellations (Starlink & OneWeb) that have already launched their satellites, Kuiper that is yet to launch as well as a hypothetical Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) communication satellite operator. It also contains the information for modeling a generic hydrocarbon (HYC) and hydrogen (HYD) fuel based rocket.
4. Kuiper, OneWeb and Starlink constellation description dataset: These datasets contains basic technical and orbital parameter details of the three LEO constellations.
5. Rocket details: This dataset contains information on the characteristics of the rockets previously used in launching LEO satellites.

The five datasets are stored in the folder, `data/raw`

Now you should be ready to start running the codebase.
To use `saleos` the following model input datasets are required from `data/raw`:
1. `life_cycle_data.xlsx`: This dataset contains estimated emissions and
other environmental impacts per launch for major rocket vehicles.
2. `scenarios.csv` : This file contains the past and future launch information
for different constellations, including hydrocarbon (HYC) versus hydrogen (HYD)
fuel-based rockets.

Using conda
-----------

The recommended installation method is to use conda, which handles packages and virtual
environments, along with the conda-forge channel which has a host of pre-built libraries and
packages.
The recommended installation method is to use conda, which handles packages
and virtual environments, along with the conda-forge channel which has a host
of pre-built libraries and packages.

Create a conda environment called saleos:

Expand All @@ -70,27 +87,37 @@ Activate it (run this each time you switch projects):

`conda activate saleos`

Alternatively, to install a conda environment capable of running the model, you can utilize the following code:
Alternatively, to install a conda environment capable of running the model,
you can utilize the following code:

`conda env create -f saleos.yml`

The `saleos.yml` file represents an existing virtual environment with a variety of packages, necessary for running the model (e.g., pandas, numpy etc.).
The `saleos.yml` file represents an existing virtual environment with a
variety of packages, necessary for running the model (e.g., pandas, numpy etc.).

First, to run `saleos` you need to generate uncertain capacity and cost
parameters since they are not deterministic.

First, to run `saleos` you need to generate uncertain capacity and cost parameters since they are not deterministic.
So navigate to the `scripts` folder and run `preprocess.py`. This will produce two capacity and cost.csv files named `uq_parameters_capacity.csv` and `uq_parameters_cost.csv` stored in the path `data/processed`
So navigate to the `scripts` folder and run `preprocess.py`. This will produce
two capacity and cost.csv files named `uq_parameters_capacity.csv` and
`uq_parameters_cost.csv` stored in the path `data/processed`.

Secondly, run the whole integrated model to produce capacity, emission and cost results by running the simulation script (`run.py`). It should first produce the following intermediate results stored in the folder `data/processed`:
Secondly, run the whole integrated model to produce capacity, emission and
cost results by running the simulation script (`run.py`). It should first
produce the following intermediate results stored in the folder
`data/processed`:

1. `interim_results_capacity.csv`
2. `interim_results_cost.csv`

Next, it should produce the following files stored in the folder path, `results`:
Next, you can inspect the model outputs stored in the `results` folder:

1. `individual_emissions.csv`
2. `final_capacity_results.csv`
3. `final_capacity_cost.csv`

Lastly, to visualize the results, you will navigate into the `vis` folder and run the following `r` scripts in any order.
Lastly, to visualize the results, you will navigate into the `vis` folder
and run the following `r` scripts in any order.

1. `aggregate_metrics.r`
2. `emissions.r`
Expand All @@ -110,21 +137,24 @@ Or if you want to develop the package:

Then run the scripts in the order defined in the previous section (`Using conda`).

Citation
---------
Ogutu, O. B., Oughton, E. J., Wilson, A. R, & Rao, A. (2023). Sustainability assessment of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite broadband mega-constellations. arXiv preprint arXiv:2309.02338.

Background and funding
----------------------

**saleos** has been developed by researchers at George Mason University, University of Strathclyde and Middlebury College.
**saleos** has been developed by researchers at George Mason University,
University of Strathclyde and Middlebury College.

## Team
- Bonface Osoro, George Mason University (Model development).
- Edward Oughton, George Mason University (Project lead and corresponding author).
- Andrew Wilson, University of Strathclyde / Glasgow Caledonian University (LCIA modeling).
- Edward Oughton, George Mason University (Project lead and corresponding
author).
- Andrew Wilson, University of Strathclyde / Glasgow Caledonian University
(LCIA modeling).
- Akhil Rao, Middlebury College (Policy and economics).

Acknowledgement
---------------
We would like to thank George Mason University's department of Geography and Geoinformation Science for funding the project. Secondly, we would like to thank Nils Pacher and Dr. Inigo del Portillo of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Aeronautics and Astronautics Department for providing the orbital parameter data of Starlink, OneWeb and Kuiper as well as a reproducible python code for modeling the orbit of the three LEO constellations. We would also like to thank Dr. Whitney Lohmeyer of Olin College of Engineering for informally reviewing the capacity model. Lastly, we would like to thank two anonymous reviewers and one satellite industry expert who provided substantial scientific feedback on the peer-reviewed manuscript and capacity model respectively that helped in enhancing quality and key contribution to the literature.
EO would like to thank Geography and Geoinformation Sciences at George Mason
University for providing start-up funding for the project. Additionall, the
authors thank Nils Pacher and Dr. Inigo del Portillo for providing code for
modeling the orbit of the three LEO constellations, as well as Dr. Whitney
Lohmeyer for providing advice on the capacity model.
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