In 2019, International Energy Agency (IEA) released a scenario in its World Energy Outlook, called the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), to highlight that Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) contribute to 9% reduction of global CO2 emission by 2050. This reduction is meant to reach 2015 Paris Agreement. IEA stated that to reach the 9% contribution, by 2050, the mass of CO2 captured and permanently stored (captured CO2 capacity) must reach 2.8 billion tonnes per annum. In other words, a world institute for CCS, the Global CCS Institute further stated that to achieve the level outlined in the SDS, number of CCUS facilities needs to increase a hundredfold by 2040.
Do we really have to add new CCS fields a hundredfold by 2050 to reach this target? A simulation using Monte Carlo will answer this.
p.s. Open directly my carbon-capture-storage-to-meet-target.ipynb notebook to learn and run the simulation.
Monte Carlo Simulation is a stochastic simulation that simulates the probability of an occurence based on probable parameters. It's the same as you roll 2 dices at the same time, multiply the 2 numbers that came out, and repeat this experiment 100 times. After that, you will see a probability distribution of the multiplied results, and you know with 80% what result will come up.
Opening 50 in-planned plus 75 pilot projects in operation for 30 years from 2020 to 2050 will surpass the target. 80% chance we have CO2 captured and stored ranging between 34,000 to 40,500 million tons per year, far beyond the target. We can confidently surpass the target with CCS. Therefore, increasing to a hundredfold is not too necessary.