Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist nor a medical doctor. I am a physicist with an interest in dynamical systems. These notebooks are for pedagogical purposes, intended for a modeling audience and not for the general public. This is not public health advice. My motivation was to share some code for the models as many figures have been circulating online, but few come with a code (or a simple code), in the spirit of open science.
Author: Pierre de Buyl
Licence: CC-BY
You can run the notebooks online by clicking the "launch binder" button.
I started to test the SEIR model on march 9 and for a few days the model matched well. Then, either due to the model not being adequate or the data being completely off, the match became less consistent. The plain lin-log plot of the number of cases still illustrates the exponential growth.