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Schedule

Date Topic Details
2023-07-27 TBD
2023-07-20 Debugging in R see also HackMD, linked in links.md
2023-07-13 Optimising predictive models to prioritise viral discovery in zoonotic resevoirs
2023-07-06 COVID-19 data analysis using Bayesian models and nonparametric geostatistical models JF may lead
2023-06-15 Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty SW may lead
2023-06-08 Caroline Mburu talk in the public Zoom
2023-06-01 How should lab meetings be organized?

Minutes

2023-06-01

  • People like the idea of doing more software workshops, not necessarily every week, perhaps following up on last summer's workshops.
  • MR suggested that people should "sign up" for a week and organize, without necessarily leading, a topic for that week.
  • MJ will help JD reorganize the lab repo.
  • DE dropped remarks about Faculty Opinions (formerly Faculty of 1000) in misc/FacultyOpinions.md.

2023 Apr 27

2023 Mar 23

macpan 2 practice talk; Emma Coates meets lab

Some specific date

Mellor, Jonathon, Rachel Christie, Christopher E. Overton, Robert S. Paton, Rhianna Leslie, Maria Tang, Sarah Deeny, and Thomas Ward. 2023. “Forecasting Influenza Hospital Admissions within English Sub-Regions Using Hierarchical Generalised Additive Models.” arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2302.11904.

2023 Jan 26

Some thing (things) from this list: Chen et al. is a recent review of use of FDEs in epidemic models, but really doesn't say much at all about interpretation. Podlubny is weird; maybe interesting but not, I think, useful. My guess is that Du et al. might be the best choice.

  • Chen, Yuli, Fawang Liu, Qiang Yu, and Tianzeng Li. “Review of Fractional Epidemic Models.” Applied Mathematical Modelling 97 (September 2021): 281–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2021.03.044 .
  • Du, Maolin, Zaihua Wang, and Haiyan Hu. “Measuring Memory with the Order of Fractional Derivative.” Scientific Reports 3, no. 1 (December 5, 2013): 3431. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep03431 .
  • Podlubny, Igor. “Geometric and Physical Interpretation of Fractional Integration and Fractional Differentiation.” arXiv, October 22, 2001. http://arxiv.org/abs/math/0110241 .

This also looks useful as a very basic intro/start to getting some intuition:

2022 Nov 28

Various guides to Random Forests (that might all say similar things):

2022 Nov 14

Feel free to optionally also look at one of:

2022 Nov 7

2022 Oct 31

2022 Oct 17 (Mon)

Short reports and informal discussion

2022 Oct 24 (Mon)

2022 Oct 3 (Mon)

Accounting for uncertainty during a pandemic, Zelner et al.

2022 Apr 28 (Thu)

Ackley et al. "Compartmental Model Diagrams as Causal Representations in Relation to DAGs"

Agenda item: technical workshops this spring or summer?

2022 Apr 21 (Thu)

D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Kyra H. Grantz, and Eleanor Murray. Quantifying Uncertainty in Mechanistic Models of Infectious Disease.. American Journal of Epidemiology 190, no. 7 (July 1, 2021): 1377–85.

14 Apr 2022

David J. Hand. Measuring classifier performance: a coherent alternative to the area under the ROC curve; hmeasure package on CRAN; web page on the H-measure

7 Apr 2022

  • Bicko presentation

31 Mar 2022

David J. Hand. Measuring classifier performance: a coherent alternative to the area under the ROC curve; hmeasure package on CRAN; web page on the H-measure

24 March 2022

17 March 2022

2022 Feb 17

Ben Bolker will present and lead a discussion about reproducible workflow and collaboration tools. For background, please review this document; I will be working on an updated version of the brain dump here.

2022 Feb 10 (Thu)

  • Short reports
  • Discussion about COVID and academic policies

2022 Feb 3 (Thu)

2022 Jan 27 (Thu)

Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination

Thu 20 Jan 2022

2022 Jan 14

informal meeting

2021 Dec 3 (Fri)

Volz, Erik M, Sergei L Kosakovsky Pond, Melissa J Ward, Andrew J Leigh Brown, and Simon D W Frost. “Phylodynamics of Infectious Disease Epidemics.” Genetics 183, no. 4 (December 1, 2009): 1421–30. https://doi.org/10.1534/genetics.109.106021.

2021 Nov 25 (Thurs)

Discussion of web site generation and backups

2021 Nov 18 (Thurs)

Tanaka, Y. “Extinction of Populations by Inbreeding Depression under Stochastic Environments.” Population Ecology 42, no. 1 (2000): 55–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s101440050009.

2021 Nov 12 (Fri)

Presentation on citation and web machinery

  • The recording is password protected for some reason; you may have it in your email under data-driven CV

2021 Nov 4 (Thu)

Tredennick, Hooker, Ellner, Adler. A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecology

2021 Oct 29 (Fri)

Short reports

2021 Oct 21 (Thurs)

More about model calibration; we can use this paper as a point of departure

2021 Oct 11-15

Reading week---no meetings or coffee

2021 Oct 8 (Fri)

We'll discuss Markov chain Monte Carlo; read the reference below to get started

Ravenzwaaij, Don van, Pete Cassey, and Scott D. Brown. “A Simple Introduction to Markov Chain Monte–Carlo Sampling.” Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 25, no. 1 (February 1, 2018): 143–54. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-016-1015-8.

(This isn't perfect, but is a good start.)

Also see section 7.3 here (also not perfect!)

Visualizations:

See also BMB notes: markdown, bibtex, html

2021 Oct 1 (Fri)

Vianey Leos Barajas: physical coffee at 2:30.

2021 Aug 12 (Thu)

Physics of spread:

2021 Jul 29 (Thu)

Informal and planning

2021 Jul 22 (Thu)

Heather Krause - Equity in Data video

2021 Jul 15 (Thu)

SARS-CoV-2 viral load in nasopharyngeal swabs is not an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome Scientific Reports volume 11:12931 (2021). This is an interesting study of COVID outcomes, but we will also talk about statistical practice:

  • What does the titular claim "not an independent predictor" mean?
  • Is it statistically justifiable?
  • What are the goals for this study?

2021 June 24 (Thurs)

Wymant, Chris, Luca Ferretti, Daphne Tsallis, Marcos Charalambides, Lucie Abeler-Dörner, David Bonsall, Robert Hinch, et al. “The Epidemiological Impact of the NHS COVID-19 App.” Nature 594, no. 7863 (June 2021): 408–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03606-z .

2021 Jun 17 (Thu)

  • short report from Maya about her agent-based version of the MacPan model
  • practice talk for the CAIMS annual meeting by Irena

2021 Jun 10 (Thu)

Reading: Grange, Zoë L., Tracey Goldstein, Christine K. Johnson, Simon Anthony, Kirsten Gilardi, Peter Daszak, Kevin J. Olival, et al. “Ranking the Risk of Animal-to-Human Spillover for Newly Discovered Viruses.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 15 (April 13, 2021).

2021 Jun 3 (Thu)

Discussion of Rogers et al. 2021: "High-frequency screening combined with diagnostic testing for control of SARS-CoV-2 in high-density settings: an economic evaluation of resources allocation for public health benefit" - led by Irena

2021 May 20 (Thu)

Discussion of modelling papers being reviewed for NCCMT

2021 May 6 (Thu)

Schielzeth, Holger. “Simple Means to Improve the Interpretability of Regression Coefficients: Interpretation of Regression Coefficients.” Methods in Ecology and Evolution 1, no. 2 (February 10, 2010): 103–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00012.x.

2021 April 29 (Thu)

We will be discussing packages/tools for stochastic simulation. Please take a look at this paper: feel free to skip sections 3.2, 3.3, 6.2 unless you're feeling very energetic.

Allen, Linda J. S. “A Primer on Stochastic Epidemic Models: Formulation, Numerical Simulation, and Analysis.” Infectious Disease Modelling 2, no. 2 (May 1, 2017): 128–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2017.03.001.

R packages/resources:

2021 Apri1 22 (Thu)

Presentation by Daniel Park about inferring pathogen interactions.

2021 Apri1 15 (Thu)

Ideas for potential McMaster return-to-campus survey

2021 Apri1 8 (Thu)

Carlson, Colin J., Sarah N. Bevins, and Boris V. Schmid. “Plague Risk in the Western United States over Seven Decades of Environmental Change.” BioRxiv, February 27, 2021, 2021.02.26.433096.

2021 Apr 1 (Thu)

Dushoff, J. and Park, S. W. PRSB. Speed and strength of an epidemic intervention

2021 Mar 25 (Thu)

The debate about vaccine priorities

See if you can form an opinion about whether and why these two perspectives are in contradiction.

2021 Mar 18 (Thu)

Practice talk by Zachary Levine.

Add info or slides if you like

2021 Mar 11 (Thu)

2021 Mar 04 (Thu)

Fox, Spencer J., Pratyush Potu, Michael Lachmann, Ravi Srinivasan, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. “The COVID-19 Herd Immunity Threshold Is Not Low: A Re-Analysis of European Data from Spring of 2020.” MedRxiv, December 3, 2020, 2020.12.01.20242289.

2021 Feb 25 (Thu)

Thing Source
Reading Ellner SP, Snyder RE, Adler PB, Hooker G. An expanded modern coexistence theory for empirical applications. Ecology Letters. 2018;22:3-18. Sections prior to "General Theory" on page 10 are recommended, and following any references to the supplement is probably a good idea. Further reading is at your leisure.
If short on time or motivation to read... A recent talk by Ellner on an extension of the 2018 work to spatial models, prefaced by an overview of the paper.
Background on modern coexistence theory (MCT) Chesson, P. Multispecies competition in variable environments. Theoretical Population Biology. 1994;45:227-276. Up to page 233.
Background on coexistence mechanisms Chesson, P. Mechanisms of maintenance of species diversity. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics. 2000;30:343-366.

2021 Feb 04 (Thu)

Norton et al. (2019). Marginal Effects—Quantifying the Effect of Changes in Risk Factors in Logistic Regression Models.

Muff et al. (2016). Marginal or conditional regression models for correlated non‐normal data?

Short reports:

  • Martin
  • Bolker

2021 Jan 28 (Thu)

Vehtari et al (2020). Bayesian Analysis. "Rank-Normalization, Folding, and Localization: An Improved Rhat for Assessing Convergence of MCMC"

2021 Jan 21 (Thu)

Juul et al (2020). Nature Physics. "Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles"

2021 Jan 14 (Thu)

Zulip and other topics

2020 Dec 8 (Tue)

McCarthy et al. (Jianhong Wu group): Quantifying the shift in social contact patterns in response to non-pharmaceutical interventions

2020 Dec 1 (Tue)

Main reading: Sections 7.1, 7.2 and 7.4 of Ben's EMD book in our private Dropbox folder, email JD

2020 Nov 24 (Tue)

Short reports and agenda items (including Cygu-led discussion of pcox)

2020 Oct 27 (Tue)

2020 Oct 20 (Tue)

Please read one of the following papers:

These are approximately "pro-lockdown" and "anti-lockdown" stances.

2020 Oct 6 (Tue)

2020 Sep 29

Seasonality of Covid transmission

Main reading: Misconceptions about weather and seasonality must not misguide COVID-19 response. Carlson et al. _Nature Communications)

Additional readings (medRxiv): Neher et al.; Huang et al.

Short reports:

  • Queenie
  • Zach

Juggling challenge

  • Friday at 13:30 on zoom (you will need a link or password from your email to join)

2020 Sep 22

Article

Masks Do More Than Protect Others During COVID-19: Reducing the Inoculum of SARS-CoV-2 to Protect the Wearer

Short reports from Mikael and Geetha

2020 Sep 15 (Tue)

Reading: Mair et al. Estimation of temporal covariances in pathogen dynamics using Bayesian multivariate autoregressive models

2020 Sep 11

Informal meeting.

4 Sep Holiday! Social meeting

28 Aug

Autoregressive methods

21 Aug

Informal meeting; any notes?

14 Aug

Bedford et al "Fitting stochastic epidemic models to gene genealogies using linear noise approximation"

  • Park: Practical tools for phylodynamics. LNA to save time cf. filters.
  • Dushoff: I like the term "gene genealogies"

7 Aug

Main reading

Follow up

Agenda item

  • short-report schedule

31 Jul

Heesterbeek et al 2015 "Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health" Science, 347(6227) (Main reading)

2020 Jul 24

2020 Jul 17

Testing and fatality rates

MacPan shiny

  • To play in advance, try run_shiny(TRUE) to open it in a browser, or run_shiny(FALSE) to run in an RStudio window.

2020 Jul 10

Presentation from Ash

2020 Jun 26

  • more reports

2020 Jun 19

Reports??

  • Send me email!!

2020 Jun 12

TMB (Template model builder)

2020 Jun 05 (Fri) Fancy physics fitting

29 May. Heterogeneity and herd immunity

This topic was triggered by this twitter thread (scroll up for main thread). There are at least three interesting-looking pubs cited here (Gomes, Britton, Bansal). Gomes is the main reading for this week, so spend some time on that and move on to the others if you have time and interes.

Please also add notes or resources about this topic!

22 May. Truncation and censoring

We will talk about adjusting for reporting delays when analyzing epidemics.

Please read:

Please also add notes or resources about this topic!

15 May

8 May

Impact of climate and public health interventions … Jüni, al. Fisman, al. CMAJ

24 Apr and 1 May

Discussion of R(t)

COVID stuff

2020 27 March. Elizabeth O'Meara, thesis discussion

2020 13 March. Kucharski et al (2020) "Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study"

Mizumoto and Chowell (2020) "Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises ship"

Whitty 2015 What makes an academic paper useful for health policy?

  • Bolker: relevant to our nCoV work etc. ...
  • More on Bacon's "idols of the cave" here and here and (if you can read Latin) here

2020 Jan 24 (Fri)

  • Informal planning meeting

Papers

Morrisey et al "Multiple Regression Is Not Multiple Regressions: The Meaning of Multiple Regression and the Non-Problem of Collinearity"

  • Dushoff: simple, good for stats foundations

2019 Nov 22 (Fri)

Morgan will talk about new work

2019 Nov 08 (Fri)

2019 Oct 11 (Fri)

Kim, Dong Wook, et al "Deep learning-based survival prediction of oral cancer patients"

  • Cygu: Compared two ML methods to regular Cox. This paper could be useful to Steve's project.

2019 Oct 4 (Fri)

  • Read a paper, and come prepared to talk (efficiently) about why it would or would not be good for the group to read or discuss

2019 Sep 27 (Fri)

2019 Sep 20 (Fri)

2019 Sep 13 (Fri)

  • Long Introductions
  • Planning topics

2018-9 academic year

5 Jul A discussion with Chai Molina about “public bads” – including greenhouse emissions and hospital infections

More 2019 meetings

Unclear when these meetings took place