-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
SIE_trends_all_piCtrl_27yrs.m
170 lines (144 loc) · 6.5 KB
/
SIE_trends_all_piCtrl_27yrs.m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
clear all
%load SIE pictrl data
load CCSM4_piControl_pp_27yrs.mat
lengthyear_ccsm = length(sie_ann_ccsm);
for i = 1:lengthyear_ccsm, year_ccsm(i) = i;end
%load CCSM4 ensemble members (repeat for other models)
load hist_r1i1p1_pp.mat
load hist_r4i1p1_pp.mat
load hist_r6i1p1_pp.mat
lengthyear_ccsm_hist_001 = length(sie_ann_ccsm_hist_001);
for i = 1:lengthyear_ccsm_hist_001, year_ccsm_hist_001(i) = i;end
sie_month_ccsm_hist = (sie_month_ccsm_hist_r1 + sie_month_ccsm_hist_r4 + sie_month_ccsm_hist_r6)/3;
for i = 1:12,
month(i) = i;
end
%load HadISST SIE data
load HadISST_19792005
%load NASA Team SIE data
load NASA_19792005
%load Bootstrap SIE data
load Bootstrap_19792005
for i = 1:size(NASA,1),year_obs(i) = i; end
for i = 1:12,
NASA_MEAN(i) = mean(NASA(1:27,i));
Bootstrap_mean(i) = mean(Bootstrap(:,i));
end
%plot pictrl and hist SIE model output along with satellite observations
figure (1)
subplot(1,2,1)
plot(month, sie_month_ccsm, 'b-','LineWidth',2);
hold on
plot(month,Bootstrap_mean/10^6,'k--','LineWidth',2)
hold on
plot(month,NASA_MEAN,'k-','LineWidth',2)
hold on
plot(month,HadISST/10^12,'k-.','LineWidth',2)
hold on
set(gca,'TickDir', 'out', ...
'XLim', [1 12], ...
'XTick', [1:1:12],...
'XTickLabel', {'J'; 'F'; 'M';'A';'M';'J'; 'J'; 'A'; 'S'; 'O'; 'N'; 'D';}, ...
'FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight', 'bold', 'LineWidth', 1);
xlabel('Month','FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
ylabel('SIE (10^6 km^2)','FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
title('(a) Pre-Industrial Monthly Mean Antarctic SIE', 'FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
subplot(1,2,2)
plot(month, sie_month_ccsm_hist, 'b-','LineWidth',2);
hold on
plot(month,Bootstrap_mean/10^6,'k--','LineWidth',2)
hold on
plot(month,NASA_MEAN,'k-','LineWidth',2)
hold on
plot(month,HadISST/10^12,'k-.','LineWidth',2)
hold on
set(gca,'TickDir', 'out', ...
'XLim', [1 12], ...
'XTick', [1:1:12],...
'XTickLabel', {'J'; 'F'; 'M';'A';'M';'J'; 'J'; 'A'; 'S'; 'O'; 'N'; 'D';}, ...
'FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight', 'bold', 'LineWidth', 1);
xlabel('Month','FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
ylabel('SIE (10^6 km^2)','FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
title('(b) 1979-2005 Monthly Mean Antarctic SIE', 'FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
%calculate linear fits to model pictrl SIE time series segments
%with trends that are multiples of the observational trend
[p1_ann,S1_ann] = polyfit(year_ccsm(25:51),sie_ann_anom_ccsm(25:51)/10^12,1);
[y1_ann_ccsm1,del1_ann] = polyval(p1_ann,year_ccsm(25:51),S1_ann);
[p1_ann,S1_ann] = polyfit(year_ccsm(353:379),sie_ann_anom_ccsm(353:379)/10^12,1);
[y1_ann_ccsm2,del1_ann] = polyval(p1_ann,year_ccsm(353:379),S1_ann);
[p1_ann,S1_ann] = polyfit(year_ccsm(194:220),sie_ann_anom_ccsm(194:220)/10^12,1);
[y1_ann_ccsm3,del1_ann] = polyval(p1_ann,year_ccsm(194:220),S1_ann);
[p1_ann,S1_ann] = polyfit(year_ccsm(298:324),sie_ann_anom_ccsm(298:324)/10^12,1);
[y1_ann_ccsm4,del1_ann] = polyval(p1_ann,year_ccsm(298:324),S1_ann);
%plot annual mean (ann) pictrl SIE anomaly time series with highlighted segments
figure(2)
h6 = plot(year_ccsm,sie_ann_anom_ccsm/10^12,'-','Color',[0.4 0.4 0.4],'LineWidth',2)
set(get(get(h6,'Annotation'),'LegendInformation'),...
'IconDisplayStyle','off');
hold on
plot(year_ccsm(25:51),sie_ann_anom_ccsm(25:51)/10^12,'b-','LineWidth',2)
hold on
h1 = plot(year_ccsm(25:51),y1_ann_ccsm1,'b-','LineWidth',2);
set(get(get(h1,'Annotation'),'LegendInformation'),...
'IconDisplayStyle','off');
hold on
plot(year_ccsm(353:379),sie_ann_anom_ccsm(353:379)/10^12,'r-','LineWidth',2)
hold on
h2 = plot(year_ccsm(353:379),y1_ann_ccsm2,'r-','LineWidth',2);
set(get(get(h2,'Annotation'),'LegendInformation'),...
'IconDisplayStyle','off');
hold on
plot(year_ccsm(194:220),sie_ann_anom_ccsm(194:220)/10^12,'g-','LineWidth',2)
hold on
h3 = plot(year_ccsm(194:220),y1_ann_ccsm3,'g-','LineWidth',2);
set(get(get(h3,'Annotation'),'LegendInformation'),...
'IconDisplayStyle','off');
hold on
plot(year_ccsm(298:324),sie_ann_anom_ccsm(298:324)/10^12,'y-','LineWidth',2)
hold on
h4 = plot(year_ccsm(298:324),y1_ann_ccsm4,'y-','LineWidth',2);
set(get(get(h4,'Annotation'),'LegendInformation'),...
'IconDisplayStyle','off');
hleg1 = legend('+1 x Obs. Trend', '-1 x Obs. Trend', '+3 x Obs. Trend', '-3 x Obs. Trend')
set(hleg1, 'FontSize',12,'FontWeight','bold','Box','off','Location','North','Orientation','Horizontal')
set(gca,'XLim',[1 500],'YLim',[-3 3],'FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
xlabel('Year','FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
ylabel('SIE (10^6 km^2)','FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
title('(a) CCSM4','FontSize', 14, 'FontWeight','bold');
for i = 1:27,year_obs(i) = i; end
%Probability Density Function (kernel density estimation) of 27-year trends from pictrl integrations
%(example here is for austral autumn (March-April-May - MAM)
[f1,x1] = ksdensity(trend_mam_ccsm(1:474));
%calculate 1979-2005 trends in Historical ensemble members
[trend_mam_ccsm_7905_001,S1_mam] = polyfit(year_ccsm_hist_001(130:156),sie_mam_ccsm_hist_001(130:156)/10^12,1);
[trend_mam_ccsm_7905_002,S1_mam] = polyfit(year_ccsm_hist_001(130:156),sie_mam_ccsm_hist_002(130:156)/10^12,1);
[trend_mam_ccsm_7905_003,S1_mam] = polyfit(year_ccsm_hist_001(130:156),sie_mam_ccsm_hist_003(130:156)/10^12,1);
trend_mam_allmodels_19792005 = cat(1,trend_mam_ccsm_7905_001(1)*10,trend_mam_ccsm_7905_002(1)*10,trend_mam_ccsm_7905_003(1)*10,...
trend_mam_waccm_7905_001(1)*10,trend_mam_waccm_7905_002(1)*10,trend_mam_waccm_7905_003(1)*10,trend_mam_waccm_7905_007(1)*10,trend_mam_gfdlg_7905(1)*10,...
trend_mam_gfdlm_7905(1)*10);
%mean of HadISST/NASA/Bootstrap
mean_obs_trend = (HadISST + NASA_MEAN + Boostrap_mean)/3;
xmax2 = max(trend_mam_allmodels_19792005)
xmin2 = min(trend_mam_allmodels_19792005)
j = 1;
for i = 0:0.001:xmax2-xmin2,
x3(j) = xmin2 + i;
j = j + 1;
end
y4 = zeros(length(x3));
y5 = 2.5*ones(length(x3));
mean_model_trend = mean(trend_mam_allmodels_19792005);
%plot PDF along with historical and satellite observation trends
figure(3)
h= jbfill(x3,y4,y5,[0.7 0.7 0.7],[0.7 0.7 0.7],1,0.3);
not_in_legend(h)
hold on
plot(x1,f1,'b-','LineWidth',2);
hold on
plot(mean_obs_trend*ones(1,length(f1)),linspace(0,2.5,length(f1)),'k-','LineWidth',2)
hold on
plot(mean_model_trend*ones(1,length(f1)),linspace(0,2.5,length(f1)),'k--','LineWidth',2)
set(gca,'FontSize',14,'FontWeight','bold','Layer','top');
ylabel('Probability Density','FontSize',14,'FontWeight','bold');
xlabel('27-year Trends (10^6 km^2 dec^-^1)','FontSize',14,'FontWeight','bold');
title('(b) MAM','FontSize',14,'FontWeight','bold');