verify

#!/usr/bin/env python2
#
# Copyright (c) 2018 Jonathan Weyn <jweyn@uw.edu>
#
# See the file LICENSE for your rights.
#

"""
Verify the MOS-X model, along with GFS and NAM MOS products, for a range of dates.
"""

import mosx
import sys
import os
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from urllib import urlopen
from collections import OrderedDict
from optparse import OptionParser
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import pickle

# Suppress warnings
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")


def get_command_options():
    parser = OptionParser()
    parser.add_option('-s', '--start-date', dest='startstr', action='store', type='string', default='weekago',
                      help='Starting verification date, YYYYMMDD (default=today)')
    parser.add_option('-e', '--end-date', dest='endstr', action='store', type='string', default='today',
                      help='Ending verification date, YYYYMMDD (default=weekago)')
    parser.add_option('-t', '--naive-rain-correction', dest='tune_rain', action='store_true', default=False,
                      help='Use the raw precipitation from GFS/NAM to override or average with MOS-X')
    parser.add_option('-r', '--rain-post-average', dest='avg_rain', action='store_true', default=False,
                      help='If using a RainTuningEstimator, this will average the raw estimation from an ensemble'
                           'with that of the rain tuning post-processor')
    parser.add_option('-m', '--verify-mos', dest='mos_flag', action='store_true', default=False,
                      help="Also retrieve GFS and NAM MOS forecasts for comparison")
    parser.add_option('-N', '--no-verify', dest='no_verif_flag', action='store_true', default=False,
                      help="Don't do verification, just get the model forecasts")
    parser.add_option('-o', '--overwrite', dest='overwrite', action='store_true', default=False,
                      help='Overwrite any existing BUFR, obs, and verification files')
    parser.add_option('-w', '--write', dest='write_flag', action='store_true', default=False,
                      help='Write a CSV file')
    default_file = './MOS-X_verification.csv'
    parser.add_option('-f', '--write-file', dest='write_file', action='store', type='string', default=default_file,
                      help=('If -w is enabled, write to this file (default %s)' % default_file))
    (opts, args) = parser.parse_args()
    return opts, args


def mos_qpf_interpret(qpf):
    """
    Interprets a pandas Series of QPF by average estimates

    :param qpf: Series of q06 or q12 from MOS
    :return: precip: Series of average estimated precipitation
    """
    translator = {0: 0.0,
                  1: 0.05,
                  2: 0.15,
                  3: 0.35,
                  4: 0.75,
                  5: 1.5,
                  6: 2.5}
    new_qpf = qpf.copy()
    for j in range(len(qpf)):
        try:
            new_qpf.iloc[j] = translator[int(qpf.iloc[j])]
        except:
            new_qpf.iloc[j] = 0.0
    return new_qpf


def retrieve_mos(model, init_date, forecast_date):
    """
    Retrieve MOS data.

    :param model: model name (GFS or NAM)
    :param init_date: datetime of model initialization
    :param forecast_date: datetime of forecast
    :return: dict of high, low, max wind, total rain for next 6Z--6Z
    """

    # Create daily return dict
    daily = OrderedDict()

    base_url = 'http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/mos/csv.php?station=%s&runtime=%s&model=%s'
    formatted_date = init_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d%%20%H:00')
    url = base_url % (config['station_id'], formatted_date, model)
    response = urlopen(url)
    df = pd.read_csv(response, index_col=False)
    date_index = pd.to_datetime(df['ftime'])
    df['datetime'] = date_index
    df = df.set_index('datetime')

    # Remove duplicate rows
    df = df.drop_duplicates()

    # Fix rain
    df['q06'] = mos_qpf_interpret(df['q06'])

    forecast_start = forecast_date.replace(hour=6)
    forecast_end = forecast_start + timedelta(days=1)

    # Some parameters need to include the forecast start; others, like total rain and 6-hour maxes, don't
    try:
        iloc_start_include = df.index.get_loc(forecast_start)
        iloc_start_exclude = iloc_start_include + 1
    except:
        print('Error getting start time index in db; check data.')
        return
    try:
        iloc_end = df.index.get_loc(forecast_end) + 1
    except:
        print('Error getting end time index in db; check data.')
        return

    raw_high = df.iloc[iloc_start_include:iloc_end]['tmp'].max()
    raw_low = df.iloc[iloc_start_include:iloc_end]['tmp'].min()
    nx_high = df.iloc[iloc_start_exclude:iloc_end]['n_x'].max()
    nx_low = df.iloc[iloc_start_exclude:iloc_end]['n_x'].max()
    daily['Tmax'] = np.nanmax([raw_high, nx_high])
    daily['Tmin'] = np.nanmin([raw_low, nx_low])
    daily['Wind'] = df.iloc[iloc_start_include:iloc_end]['wsp'].max()
    daily['Rain'] = df.iloc[iloc_start_exclude:iloc_end]['q06'].sum()

    return daily


# Parameters

options, arguments = get_command_options()

try:
    config_file = arguments[0]
except IndexError:
    print('Required argument (config file) not provided.')
    sys.exit(1)
config = mosx.util.get_config(config_file)

if options.endstr == 'today':
    date = datetime.utcnow()
    # BUFR cycle
    cycle = '18'
    if date.hour < 6:
        end_date = datetime(date.year, date.month, date.day) - timedelta(days=2)
    else:
        end_date = datetime(date.year, date.month, date.day) - timedelta(days=1)
    if options.no_verif_flag:
        end_date += timedelta(days=2)
else:
    cycle = '18'
    try:
        end_date = datetime.strptime(options.endstr, '%Y%m%d')
    except:
        raise ValueError('Invalid date format entered (use YYYYMMDD).')

if options.startstr == 'weekago':
    date = datetime.utcnow()
    start_date = datetime(date.year, date.month, date.day) - timedelta(days=7)
else:
    try:
        start_date = datetime.strptime(options.startstr, '%Y%m%d')
    except:
        raise ValueError('Invalid date format entered (use YYYYMMDD).')

# Override the INFILE values
new_start_date = datetime.strftime(start_date, '%Y%m%d')
new_end_date = datetime.strftime(end_date, '%Y%m%d')
config['data_start_date'] = new_start_date
config['data_end_date'] = new_end_date


# Retrieve data

bufr_file = '%s/%s_verify_%s_bufr.pkl' % (config['SITE_ROOT'], config['station_id'], new_end_date)
print('\n--- MOS-X verify: retrieving BUFR data...\n')
print('Using model cycle %sZ' % cycle)
if os.path.isfile(bufr_file) and not options.overwrite:
    print('Using existing BUFR file %s' % bufr_file)
    print('If issues occur, delete this file and try again')
else:
    print('Using model cycle %sZ' % cycle)
    mosx.bufr.bufr(config, bufr_file, cycle=cycle)

obs_file = '%s/%s_verify_%s_obs.pkl' % (config['SITE_ROOT'], config['station_id'], new_end_date)
print('\n--- MOS-X verify: retrieving OBS data...\n')
if os.path.isfile(obs_file) and not options.overwrite:
    print('Using existing obs file %s' % obs_file)
    print('If issues occur, delete this file and try again')
else:
    mosx.obs.obs(config, obs_file, use_nan_sounding=False)

if not options.no_verif_flag:
    verif_file = '%s/%s_verify_%s_verif.pkl' % (config['SITE_ROOT'], config['station_id'], new_end_date)
    print('\n--- MOS-X verify: retrieving VERIF data...\n')
    if os.path.isfile(verif_file) and not options.overwrite:
        print('Using existing verif file %s' % verif_file)
        print('If issues occur, delete this file and try again')
    else:
        mosx.verification.verification(config, verif_file, use_climo=False, use_cf6=config['Obs']['use_climo_wind'])
    with open(verif_file, 'rb') as handle:
        verif = pickle.load(handle)
else:
    verif_file = None


# Format data

predictor_file = '%s/%s_verify_%s_predictors.pkl' % (config['SITE_ROOT'], config['station_id'],
                                              new_end_date)
print('\n--- MOS-X run: formatting predictor data...\n')
all_dates = mosx.model.format_predictors(config, bufr_file, obs_file, verif_file, predictor_file,
                                         return_dates=True)


# Make a prediction!

predicted = mosx.model.predict(config, predictor_file, naive_rain_correction=options.tune_rain)
if options.avg_rain:
    print('Using average of raw and rain-tuned precipitation forecasts')
    no_tuned_predictions = mosx.model.predict_all(config, predictor_file, naive_rain_correction=options.tune_rain,
                                                  rain_tuning=False)
    predicted = np.mean([predicted, no_tuned_predictions[0]], axis=0)

# Get GFS and NAM MOS forecasts, if desired

if options.mos_flag:
    gfs = OrderedDict()
    nam = OrderedDict()
    mos_mean = OrderedDict()
    for current_date in all_dates:
        init_date = current_date - timedelta(days=1)
        init_date = init_date.replace(hour=12)
        mos_array = np.full((2, 4), np.nan)

        # GFS
        print('Retrieving %s data initialized at %s' % ('GFS MOS', init_date))
        daily = retrieve_mos('GFS', init_date, current_date)
        if daily is not None:
            gfs[current_date] = daily
            mos_array[0, :] = daily.values()

        # NAM
        print('Retrieving %s data initialized at %s' % ('NAM MOS', init_date))
        daily = retrieve_mos('NAM', init_date, current_date)
        if daily is not None:
            nam[current_date] = daily
            mos_array[1, :] = daily.values()

        # Ensemble mean
        mos_array = np.nanmean(mos_array, axis=0)
        mos_mean[current_date] = {
            'Tmax': mos_array[0],
            'Tmin': mos_array[1],
            'Wind': mos_array[2],
            'Rain': mos_array[3]
        }

        current_date += timedelta(days=1)


# Print forecasts!

print("\nRain forecast type: '%s'" % config['Model']['rain_forecast_type'])

forecast_format = '%0.0f/%0.0f/%0.0f/%0.2f'
variables = ['Tmax', 'Tmin', 'Wind', 'Rain']
if options.mos_flag:
    print('\nDay, verification, GFS MOS, NAM MOS, MOS MEAN, MOS-X')
else:
    print('\nDay, verification, MOS-X')
for day in range(len(all_dates)):
    date = all_dates[day]
    if not options.no_verif_flag:
        verif_str = forecast_format % tuple([verif[date][v] for v in variables])
    else:
        verif_str = ''
    mosx_str = forecast_format % tuple(predicted[day, :4])
    if options.mos_flag:
        try:
            gfs_str = forecast_format % tuple([gfs[date][v] for v in variables])
        except KeyError:
            gfs_str = ''
        try:
            nam_str = forecast_format % tuple([nam[date][v] for v in variables])
        except KeyError:
            nam_str = ''
        try:
            mos_mean_str = forecast_format % tuple([mos_mean[date][v] for v in variables])
        except KeyError:
            mos_mean_str = ''
        print('%s,%s,%s,%s,%s,%s' % (date, verif_str, gfs_str, nam_str, mos_mean_str, mosx_str))
    else:
        print('%s,%s,%s' % (date, verif_str, mosx_str))


# Write the forecast, if requested

if options.write_flag:
    print('\nForecast write requested, writing to file %s' % options.write_file)
    
    with open(options.write_file, 'w') as f:
        if options.mos_flag:
            print >> f, 'date,verification,GFS MOS,NAM MOS,MOS MEAN,MOS-X'
        else:
            print >> f, 'date,verification,MOS-X'
        for day in range(len(all_dates)):
            date = all_dates[day]
            if not options.no_verif_flag:
                verif_str = forecast_format % tuple([verif[date][v] for v in variables])
            else:
                verif_str = ''
            mosx_str = forecast_format % tuple(predicted[day, :4])
            if options.mos_flag:
                try:
                    gfs_str = forecast_format % tuple([gfs[date][v] for v in variables])
                except KeyError:
                    gfs_str = ''
                try:
                    nam_str = forecast_format % tuple([nam[date][v] for v in variables])
                except KeyError:
                    nam_str = ''
                try:
                    mos_mean_str = forecast_format % tuple([mos_mean[date][v] for v in variables])
                except KeyError:
                    mos_mean_str = ''
                print >> f, '%s,%s,%s,%s,%s,%s' % (date, verif_str, gfs_str, nam_str, mos_mean_str, mosx_str)
            else:
                print >>f, '%s,%s,%s' % (date, verif_str, mosx_str)