markov_chain_ex01_py.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Finite Markov Chains: Examples"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Daisuke Oyama**\n",
    "\n",
    "*Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo*"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "This notebook demonstrates how to analyze finite-state Markov chains\n",
    "with the `MarkovChain` class.\n",
    "For basic concepts and properties on Markov chains, see\n",
    "\n",
    "* [the lecture on finite Markov chains](http://quant-econ.net/py/finite_markov.html)\n",
    "  in Quantitative Economics, and\n",
    "* [the documentation for `MarkovChain`](http://quanteconpy.readthedocs.org/en/stable/markov/core.html).\n",
    "\n",
    "For algorithmic issues in detecting reducibility and periodicity of a Markov chain,\n",
    "see, for example,\n",
    "\n",
    "* J. P. Jarvis and D. R. Shier,\n",
    "  \"[Graph-Theoretic Analysis of Finite Markov Chains](http://www.ces.clemson.edu/~shierd/Shier/markov.pdf),\"\n",
    "\n",
    "from which we draw some examples below."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "%matplotlib inline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from __future__ import division, print_function\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "from quantecon.markov import MarkovChain"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "source": [
    "## Example 1: Reducible chain"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Consider the Markov chain given by the following stochastic matrix,\n",
    "taken from Exercise 3 in Jarvis and Shier\n",
    "(where the actual values of non-zero probabilities are not important):"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "P = np.zeros((6, 6))\n",
    "P[0, 0] = 1\n",
    "P[1, 4] = 1\n",
    "P[2, [2, 3, 4]] = 1/3\n",
    "P[3, [0, 5]] = 1/2\n",
    "P[4, [1, 4]] = 1/2\n",
    "P[5, [0, 3]] = 1/2"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.          0.          0.          1.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.          0.33333333  0.33333333  0.33333333  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.5         0.          0.          0.          0.          0.5       ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.5         0.          0.          0.5         0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.5         0.          0.          0.5         0.          0.        ]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(P)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Create a MarkovChain instance:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "mc1 = MarkovChain(P)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Classification of states"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "This Markov chain is reducible:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "False"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 6,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.is_irreducible"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "4"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 7,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.num_communication_classes"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Determine the communication classes:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[array([0]), array([1, 4]), array([3, 5]), array([2])]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 8,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.communication_classes"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Classify the states of this Markov chain:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[array([0]), array([1, 4])]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 9,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.recurrent_classes"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Obtain a list of the recurrent states:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[0 1 4]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "recurrent_states = np.concatenate(mc1.recurrent_classes)\n",
    "print(recurrent_states)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Obtain a list of the transient states:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[2 3 5]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "transient_states = np.setdiff1d(np.arange(mc1.n), recurrent_states)\n",
    "print(transient_states)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "A Markov chain is reducible (i.e., its directed graph is not strongly connected)\n",
    "if and only if by symmetric permulations of rows and columns,\n",
    "its transition probability matrix is written in the form (\"canonical form\")\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\\begin{pmatrix}\n",
    "U & 0 \\\\\n",
    "W & V\n",
    "\\end{pmatrix},\n",
    "$$\n",
    "where $U$ and $W$ are square matrices.\n",
    "\n",
    "Such a form for `mc1` is obtained by the following:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.          1.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.5         0.5         0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.          0.33333333  0.33333333  0.33333333  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.5         0.          0.          0.          0.          0.5       ]\n",
      " [ 0.5         0.          0.          0.          0.5         0.        ]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "permutation = np.concatenate([recurrent_states, transient_states])\n",
    "print(mc1.P[permutation, :][:, permutation])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "This Markov chain is aperiodic\n",
    "(i.e., the least common multiple of the periods of the recurrent sub-chains is one):"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "True"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 13,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.is_aperiodic"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Indeed, each of the sub-chains corresponding to the recurrent classes has period $1$,\n",
    "i.e., every recurrent state is aperiodic:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Period of the sub-chain\n",
      "[[ 1.]]\n",
      " = 1\n",
      "Period of the sub-chain\n",
      "[[ 0.   1. ]\n",
      " [ 0.5  0.5]]\n",
      " = 1\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for recurrent_class in mc1.recurrent_classes:\n",
    "    sub_matrix = P[recurrent_class, :][:, recurrent_class]\n",
    "    d = MarkovChain(sub_matrix).period\n",
    "    print('Period of the sub-chain\\n{0}\\n = {1}'.format(sub_matrix, d))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Stationary distributions"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "For each recurrent class $C$, there is a unique stationary distribution $\\psi^C$\n",
    "such that $\\psi^C_i > 0$ for all $i \\in C$ and $\\psi^C_i = 0$ otherwise.\n",
    "`MarkovChain.stationary_distributions` returns\n",
    "these unique stationary distributions for the recurrent classes.\n",
    "Any stationary distribution is written as a convex combination of these distributions."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333333  0.          0.          0.66666667  0.        ]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(mc1.stationary_distributions)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "These are indeed stationary distributions:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333333  0.          0.          0.66666667  0.        ]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(mc1.stationary_distributions.dot(mc1.P))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Plot these distributions."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def draw_histogram(distribution, ax=None, figsize=None,\n",
    "                   title=None, xlabel=None, ylabel=None, ylim=(0, 1)):\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    Plot the given distribution.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    if ax is None:\n",
    "        fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=figsize)\n",
    "    n = len(distribution)\n",
    "    ax.bar(np.arange(n), distribution, align='center')\n",
    "    ax.set_xlim(-0.5, (n-1)+0.5)\n",
    "    ax.set_ylim(*ylim)\n",
    "    if title:\n",
    "        ax.set_title(title)\n",
    "    if xlabel:\n",
    "        ax.set_xlabel(xlabel)\n",
    "    if ylabel:\n",
    "        ax.set_ylabel(ylabel)\n",
    "    if ax is None:\n",
    "        plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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WeBbwx+3Hzlr8jNmL2HKI28bsRWvqMXu5JL7j3LBdm1iSzYBPAR+pqs9Ouz2T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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10d9e75f8>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(12, 4))\n",
    "titles = ['Stationary distribution for the recurrent class {0}'.format(recurrent_class)\n",
    "          for recurrent_class in mc1.recurrent_classes]\n",
    "\n",
    "for ax, title, dist in zip(axes, titles, mc1.stationary_distributions):\n",
    "    draw_histogram(dist, ax=ax, title=title, xlabel='States')\n",
    "\n",
    "fig.suptitle('Stationary distributions', y=-0.05, fontsize=12)\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Simulation"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Let us simulate our Markov chain `mc1`.\n",
    "The `simualte` method generates a sample path\n",
    "of length given by the first argument, `ts_length`,\n",
    "with an initial state as specified by an optional argument `init`;\n",
    "if not specified, the initial state is randomly drawn. "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "A sample path from state `0`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,\n",
       "       0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,\n",
       "       0, 0, 0, 0])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 19,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.simulate(50, init=0)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "As is clear from the transition matrix `P`,\n",
    "if it starts at state `0`, the chain stays there forever,\n",
    "i.e., `0` is an absorbing state, a state that constitutes a singleton recurrent class."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Start with state `1`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4,\n",
       "       1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 4,\n",
       "       1, 4, 1, 4])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 20,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.simulate(50, init=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "You can observe that the chain stays in the recurrent class $\\{1,4\\}$\n",
    "and visits states `1` and `4` with certain frequencies."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "If `init` is not specified, the initial state is randomly chosen:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([2, 3, 5, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,\n",
       "       0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,\n",
       "       0, 0, 0, 0])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 21,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.simulate(50)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Note on reproducibility**:\n",
    "The `simulate` method offers an option `random_state` to set a random seed\n",
    "to initialize the pseudo-random number generator.\n",
    "As you provide the same random seed value,\n",
    "`simulate` returns the same outcome."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "For example, the following will always give the same sequence:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4,\n",
       "       1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4, 1, 4,\n",
       "       4, 4, 4, 4])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 22,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc1.simulate(50, random_state=12345)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### Time series averages"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Now, let us compute the frequency distribution along a sample path, given by\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\\frac{1}{t} \\sum_{\\tau=0}^{t-1} \\mathbf{1}\\{X_{\\tau} = s\\}\n",
    "\\quad (s \\in S).\n",
    "$$"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def time_series_dist(mc, t, init=None, random_state=None):\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    Return the distribution of visits by a sample path of length t\n",
    "    of mc with an initial state init.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    t_max = np.max(t)\n",
    "    dim = 1\n",
    "    try:\n",
    "        ts_size = len(t)  # t is an array\n",
    "        ts_array = t\n",
    "        dim = 2\n",
    "    except:  # t is an int\n",
    "        ts_size = 1\n",
    "        ts_array = [t]\n",
    "        \n",
    "    X = mc.simulate(ts_length=t_max, init=init, random_state=random_state)\n",
    "    dists = np.empty((ts_size, mc.n))\n",
    "    bins = np.arange(mc.n+1)\n",
    "    for i, length in enumerate(ts_array):\n",
    "        hist, bin_edges = np.histogram(X[:length], bins=bins)\n",
    "        dists[i, :] = hist / length\n",
    "    if dim == 1:\n",
    "        return dists[0]\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        return dists"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Here is a frequency distribution along a sample path,  of length 100,\n",
    "from initial state `1`, which is a recurrent state:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([ 0.  ,  0.38,  0.  ,  0.  ,  0.62,  0.  ])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 24,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "time_series_dist(mc1, t=100, init=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Length 10,000:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 25,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([ 0.    ,  0.3347,  0.    ,  0.    ,  0.6653,  0.    ])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 25,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "time_series_dist(mc1, t=10**4, init=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The distribution becomes close to the stationary distribution `(0, 1/3, 0, 0, 2/3, 0)`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Plot the frequency distributions for a couple of different time lengths:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 26,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def plot_time_series_dists(mc, init, ts, seed=None, figsize=(12,4)):\n",
    "    dists = time_series_dist(mc, t=ts, init=init, random_state=seed)\n",
    "\n",
    "    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, len(ts), figsize=figsize)\n",
    "    titles = ['t={0}'.format(t) for t in ts]\n",
    "\n",
    "    for ax, title, dist in zip(axes, titles, dists):\n",
    "        draw_histogram(dist, ax=ax, title=title, xlabel='States')\n",
    "\n",
    "    fig.suptitle('Time series distributions with init={0}'.format(init),\n",
    "                 y=-0.05, fontsize=12)\n",
    "    plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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sfCVJktQEC19JkiQ1wcJXkiRJTbDwlSRJUhMsfCVJktQEC19JkiQ1wcJXkiRJTdhrqycg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\nBwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10e1e10b8>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 1\n",
    "ts = [5, 10, 50, 100]\n",
    "plot_time_series_dists(mc1, init, ts)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Start with state `2`,\n",
    "which is a transient state:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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5v6pm18s+pBvzn+fMdXfgbOBc4O7ArwNvyOiS/aynA9sZ/byvAf6oe+2k791H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\n1AQLX0mSJDXh/wPZf0llxApKgAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10e37f0f0>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 2\n",
    "ts = [5, 10, 50, 100]\n",
    "plot_time_series_dists(mc1, init, ts)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Run the above cell several times;\n",
    "you will observe that the limit distribution differs across sample paths.\n",
    "Sometimes the state is absorbed into the recurrent class $\\{0\\}$,\n",
    "while other times it is absorbed into the recurrent class $\\{1,4\\}$."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 29,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Some sample path with init=2\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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XLCl4Htu1u3jW+rpL4klOYFRE/TSjYvVdwCu7ZQ8F7g8c0/X7aOBLK4zv/zC6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\nJUmS1IT/D5ilPK/S98Y1AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10e5e8ef0>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Another sample path with init=2\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10e875c88>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 2\n",
    "ts = [5, 10, 50, 100]\n",
    "seeds = [222, 2222]\n",
    "descriptions = ['{0} sample path with init={1}'.format(adjective, init) for adjective\n",
    "                in ['Some'] + ['Another'] + ['Yet another']*(len(seeds)-1)]\n",
    "\n",
    "for seed, description in zip(seeds, descriptions):\n",
    "    print(description)\n",
    "    plot_time_series_dists(mc1, init, ts, seed=seed)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "In fact,\n",
    "for almost every sample path of a finite Markov chain $\\{X_t\\}$,\n",
    "for some recurrent class $C$ we have\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\\frac{1}{t} \\sum_{\\tau=0}^{t-1} \\mathbf{1}\\{X_{\\tau} = s\\} \\to \\psi^C[s]\n",
    "\\quad \\text{as $t \\to \\infty$}\n",
    "$$\n",
    "for all states $s$,\n",
    "where $\\psi^C$ is the stationary distribution associated with the recurrent class $C$.\n",
    "\n",
    "If the initial state $s_0$ is a recurrent state,\n",
    "then the recurrent class $C$ above is the one that contains $s_0$,\n",
    "while if it is a transient state,\n",
    "then the recurrent class to which the convergence occurs depends on the sample path."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Let us simulate with the remaining states, `3`, `4`, and `5`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 30,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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KsjvwTOC3q+q2qroWeAvwggH7/R6wX5LdqurWqjq7XX84cGpVnQZQVR8BzgN+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\n+EqSJKkXLHwlSZLUCxa+kiRJ6oX/D6qLDUDA14a4AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10e378780>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "inits = [3, 4, 5]\n",
    "t = 100\n",
    "\n",
    "fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 3, figsize=(12, 3))\n",
    "\n",
    "for init, ax in zip(inits, axes):\n",
    "    draw_histogram(time_series_dist(mc1, t=t, init=init), ax=ax,\n",
    "                   title='Initial state = {0}'.format(init),\n",
    "                   xlabel='States')\n",
    "\n",
    "fig.suptitle('Time series distributions for t={0}'.format(t),\n",
    "             y=-0.05, fontsize=12)\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "#### Cross sectional averages"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Next, let us repeat the simulation for many times (say, 10,000 times)\n",
    "and obtain the distribution of visits to each state at a given time period `T`.\n",
    "That is, we want to simulate the marginal distribution at time `T`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 31,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def cross_sectional_dist(mc, T, init=None, num_reps=10**4, random_state=None):\n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    Return the distribution of visits at time T by num_reps times of simulation\n",
    "    of mc with an initial state init.\n",
    "    \n",
    "    \"\"\"\n",
    "    T_max = np.max(T)\n",
    "    dim = 1\n",
    "    try:\n",
    "        Ts_size = len(T)  # T is an array\n",
    "        Ts_array = T\n",
    "        dim = 2\n",
    "    except:  # T is an int\n",
    "        Ts_size = 1\n",
    "        Ts_array = [T]\n",
    "    \n",
    "    x = mc.simulate(ts_length=T_max+1, init=init, num_reps=num_reps,\n",
    "                    random_state=random_state)[:, Ts_array]\n",
    "    dists = np.empty((x.shape[-1], mc.n))\n",
    "    bins = np.arange(mc.n+1)\n",
    "    for i in range(x.shape[-1]):\n",
    "        hist, bin_edges = np.histogram(x[:, i], bins=bins)\n",
    "        dists[i, :] = hist / num_reps\n",
    "    if dim == 1:\n",
    "        return dists[0]\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        return dists"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Start with state `1`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([ 0.    ,  0.3333,  0.    ,  0.    ,  0.6667,  0.    ])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 32,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 1\n",
    "T = 10\n",
    "cross_sectional_dist(mc1, init=init, T=T)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 33,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([ 0.    ,  0.3348,  0.    ,  0.    ,  0.6652,  0.    ])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 33,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "T = 100\n",
    "cross_sectional_dist(mc1, init=init, T=T)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The distribution is close to the stationary distribution `(0, 1/3, 0, 0, 2/3, 0)`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Plot the simulated marginal distribution at `T` for some values of `T`."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def plot_cross_sectional_dists(mc, init, Ts, num_reps=10**4, seed=None,\n",
    "                               figsize=(12,4)):\n",
    "    dists = cross_sectional_dist(mc, T=Ts, init=init, num_reps=num_reps,\n",
    "                                 random_state=seed)\n",
    "\n",
    "    fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, len(Ts), figsize=figsize)\n",
    "    titles = ['T={0}'.format(T) for T in Ts]\n",
    "\n",
    "    for ax, title, dist in zip(axes, titles, dists):\n",
    "        draw_histogram(dist, ax=ax, title=title, xlabel='States')\n",
    "\n",
    "    fig.suptitle('Cross sectional distributions with init={0}'.format(init),\n",
    "                 y=-0.05, fontsize=12)\n",
    "    plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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LryRJkppg8ZUkSVITtm32BCRJkjbD6E/y9sc/tTz/LL6SJKlhfZXVfku0ZsOlDpIkSWqC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\nLvQQ7R4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10dc79588>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 1\n",
    "Ts = [2, 3, 5, 10]\n",
    "plot_cross_sectional_dists(mc1, init, Ts)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Starting with a transient state `2`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([ 0.5075,  0.1659,  0.    ,  0.0008,  0.3247,  0.0011])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 36,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 2\n",
    "T = 10\n",
    "cross_sectional_dist(mc1, init=init, T=T)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([ 0.5014,  0.1661,  0.    ,  0.    ,  0.3325,  0.    ])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 37,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "T = 100\n",
    "dist = cross_sectional_dist(mc1, init=init, T=T)\n",
    "dist"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 38,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10fd4ba58>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "draw_histogram(dist,\n",
    "               title='Cross sectional distribution at T={T} with init={init}'\n",
    "                     .format(T=T, init=init),\n",
    "               xlabel='States')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Observe that the distribution is close to a convex combination of\n",
    "the stationary distributions `(1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)` and `(0, 1/3, 0, 0, 2/3, 0)`,\n",
    "which is a stationary distribution itself."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "How the simulated marginal distribution evolves:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 39,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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4+wA/DXy+qv4OOAU4qTnsfUTT1/Ah7j8ADgUe2lwOBV4+NK19m7nvBzwf+JsM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\nSpIkqRf+P3s4aAGjgxZxAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10fe9a630>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 2\n",
    "Ts = [2, 3, 5, 10]\n",
    "plot_cross_sectional_dists(mc1, init, Ts)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Since our Markov chain is aperiodic (i.e., every recurrent class is aperiodic),\n",
    "the marginal disribution at time $T$ converges as $T \\to \\infty$\n",
    "to some stationary distribution,\n",
    "and the limit distribution depends on the initial state,\n",
    "according to the probabilities that the state is absorbed into the recurrent classes."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "For initial states `3`, `4`, and `5`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 40,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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V729Hra9pY1uw1KjfEcCrquqqqrqq3e5ze9bf0q6/rao+TlPsPhCgqj5bVd9s\nb3+D5qTgCUv0teBAYId2pPC2qvoQ8OUBbZc6JumzbwW8s6o2VdWWqrq1zzav7On734DzaQr3fjLg\ndj9PA85v5/1uqaoTgPO4fepMAe+oqgur6gfAv9GcpNxB+zv8SFX9oKpuoCnyFx/bbR7NraoXVtUe\nA5a+MfWxM7B50WPfpznhkLRGWPhKa8PVwJ5Z/qoDvfMh9wauqaobex67GNinvf184AHApvZj7oVi\n6t3AKcAJ7XSC1yfZYXFHVXUh8AfARuCKJO9Lcp929f7ARxZG5YBvAbfSjMjuC3x78faGtDfNqGjv\n/uzdc//qRScHN9EUPCR5bJJT24/jr6Mpzvt+dN+nz8sWPfbf/Rouc0wGuWSZ9f363rtfwxXam+b4\nLbXt7/bcvpn2WC6W5G5JjmunXmwGPgvslmw1Z3ngPN8xuZ7m04Beu9EUv5LWCAtfaW34IvA/wC8u\n0Wbxx96XA3dP0lus3Je2OG5H8o6oqnsCrwc+mOSuVXVrVb2qqh5KM2L8dG4fJd66w6r3VdXjgfu1\nfb++XXUxsGHRyNzdqupymkLv/kvsw1Iupymqe/fn8mWes+BfaaYs7FtVuwNvY7jXyO9w+8nCgvsN\narzEMRm0b8vtc7++F/b5RuDHetbdewXbvYw77sf9uGOhPYyX0pxErW+nkjyBrUe4t6voTfK23H6l\nh8XLN/o8pV9/3wQevuixh7ePS1ojLHylNaCqNgN/TjNn9bB2hG3HJIckWSissug5lwCnA69rvxT2\ncOA3gfcAJDkyyT3b5ptpioUtSZ6Y5GHttITraaYP3LY4piQPaL+4dReaovwHPe3eRjOf+L5t23sm\nWfgI/b3Ak5P8SpIdktwjt19W6gqa+caDvA94RZI9k+zZHpNhL/21M3BtVf0wyXqaaRPDFGSnA7cm\neXF7zH8J+Jl+DZc5Jt8F9l80CgrLTwG4V0/fvwI8iGaONMA5wHPa4/gYtp57/D1gC4NPMj4OPCDJ\n4e3zn91u+2MriG3BzjQjwpvbucOLvzh4xRJxLKuq/vfClR/6LA/7UbDJnZLsBOwI3Kn9u1+4asM8\ncFt7LO+S5MU0x+cz2xqXpOlj4SutEVX1d8BLaL7MdSXNqOoLuf0Lb4tHfKH5ctL+NCOEHwb+vKoW\n3uifCpyb5Hqay6Q9p6r+h2Y6wgdoiuFv0RQM/YrLuwCvoymwvkPzRbWXteveBJwI/GeS79OMWK9v\n9+MS4FBMmqTmAAABFUlEQVSaUcKrgbO5fSTueOAh7RSJD/fp8zXAWTRfUvp6e/s1vYepz3MWvBB4\nVRvPn3H7l/mWfG47R/mXaL7kdTXwq8CHBjx3qWPygfbn1UnOGjLmAr4EHNBu89XAs6rq2nb9n9EU\nlNfSTK94b0/cNwF/CZzWXmnhsWx9/eGraUbzXwpcRfPFtadX1TUDYuv397XgjcBd2+2cTlNU97Z9\nE80c72uSvHGJ/V3c50o9j2Z6yz/QfLnvZuA4+NHv8Zltm2vbn88cMK9a0oxK1aSnVUmSJEmrzxFf\nSZIkdYKFryRJkjrBwleSJEmdYOErSZKkTrDwlSRJUidY+EqSJKkTLHwlSZLUCRa+kiRJ6gQLX0mS\nJHXC/wekWH4iVysTFwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10de5cef0>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "inits = [3, 4, 5]\n",
    "T = 10\n",
    "\n",
    "fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 3, figsize=(12, 3))\n",
    "\n",
    "for init, ax in zip(inits, axes):\n",
    "    draw_histogram(cross_sectional_dist(mc1, T=T, init=init), ax=ax,\n",
    "                   title='Initial state = {0}'.format(init),\n",
    "                   xlabel='States')\n",
    "\n",
    "fig.suptitle('Cross sectional distribution at T={0}'.format(T),\n",
    "             y=-0.05, fontsize=12)\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Powers of $P$"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "source": [
    "The marginal distributions at time $T$ are obtained by $P^T$."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 41,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "np.set_printoptions(suppress=True)  # Suppress printing with floating point notation"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 42,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "P^10 =\n",
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33398438  0.          0.          0.66601562  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.49807228  0.16679179  0.00001694  0.0007677   0.33319974  0.00115155]\n",
      " [ 0.99902344  0.          0.          0.00097656  0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33300781  0.          0.          0.66699219  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.99902344  0.          0.          0.          0.          0.00097656]]\n",
      "P^20 =\n",
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333397  0.          0.          0.66666603  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.49999809  0.16666679  0.          0.00000076  0.33333321  0.00000114]\n",
      " [ 0.99999905  0.          0.          0.00000095  0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333302  0.          0.          0.66666698  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.99999905  0.          0.          0.          0.          0.00000095]]\n",
      "P^30 =\n",
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333333  0.          0.          0.66666667  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.5         0.16666667  0.          0.          0.33333333  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333333  0.          0.          0.66666667  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Ts = [10, 20, 30]\n",
    "for T in Ts:\n",
    "    print('P^{T} =\\n{P_T}'.format(T=T, P_T=np.linalg.matrix_power(mc1.P, T)))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "In the canonical form:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 43,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Q =\n",
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.          1.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.5         0.5         0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.          0.33333333  0.33333333  0.33333333  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.5         0.          0.          0.          0.          0.5       ]\n",
      " [ 0.5         0.          0.          0.          0.5         0.        ]]\n",
      "Q^10 =\n",
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33398438  0.66601562  0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33300781  0.66699219  0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.49807228  0.16679179  0.33319974  0.00001694  0.0007677   0.00115155]\n",
      " [ 0.99902344  0.          0.          0.          0.00097656  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.99902344  0.          0.          0.          0.          0.00097656]]\n",
      "Q^20 =\n",
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333397  0.66666603  0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333302  0.66666698  0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.49999809  0.16666679  0.33333321  0.          0.00000076  0.00000114]\n",
      " [ 0.99999905  0.          0.          0.          0.00000095  0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.99999905  0.          0.          0.          0.          0.00000095]]\n",
      "Q^30 =\n",
      "[[ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333333  0.66666667  0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.          0.33333333  0.66666667  0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 0.5         0.16666667  0.33333333  0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]\n",
      " [ 1.          0.          0.          0.          0.          0.        ]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "Q = mc1.P[permutation, :][:, permutation]\n",
    "print('Q =\\n{Q}'.format(Q=Q))\n",
    "for T in Ts:\n",
    "    print('Q^{T} =\\n{Q_T}'.format(T=T, Q_T=np.linalg.matrix_power(Q, T)))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Observe that the first three rows, which correspond to the recurrent states,\n",
    "are close to the stationary distributions associated with the corresponding recurrent classes."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Example 2: Periodic chain"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Consider the Markov chain given by the following stochastic matrix,\n",
    "taken from Exercise 9 (see also Exercise 11) in Jarvis and Shier\n",
    "(where the actual values of non-zero probabilities are not important):"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 44,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "P = np.zeros((10, 10))\n",
    "P[0, 3] = 1\n",
    "P[1, [0, 4]] = 1/2\n",
    "P[2, 6] = 1\n",
    "P[3, [1, 2, 7]] = 1/3\n",
    "P[4, 3] = 1\n",
    "P[5, 4] = 1\n",
    "P[6, 3] = 1\n",
    "P[7, [6, 8]] = 1/2\n",
    "P[8, 9] = 1\n",
    "P[9, 5] = 1"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 45,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[[ 0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.5    0.     0.     0.     0.5    0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.5    0.     0.5    0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     1.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "np.set_printoptions(precision=3)  # Reduce the number of digits printed\n",
    "print(P)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 46,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "mc2 = MarkovChain(P)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "This Markov chain is irreducible:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 47,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "True"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 47,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc2.is_irreducible"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "This Markov chain is periodic:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 48,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "False"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 48,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc2.is_aperiodic"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Its period, which we denote by $d$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 49,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "3\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "d = mc2.period\n",
    "print(d)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Identify the cyclic classes:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 50,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[array([0, 4, 6, 8]), array([3, 9]), array([1, 2, 5, 7])]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 50,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mc2.cyclic_classes"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Cyclic normal form"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "If a Markov chain is periodic with period $d \\geq 2$,\n",
    "then its transition probability matrix is written in the form (\"cyclic normal form\")\n",
    "$$\n",
    "\\begin{pmatrix}\n",
    "0       & P_0    & 0      & 0      & \\cdots & 0 \\\\\n",
    "0       & 0      & P_1    & 0      & \\cdots & 0 \\\\\n",
    "0       & 0      & 0      & P_2    & \\cdots & 0 \\\\\n",
    "\\vdots  & \\vdots & \\vdots & \\vdots & \\ddots & \\vdots \\\\\n",
    "0       & 0      & 0      & 0      & \\cdots & P_{d-2} \\\\\n",
    "P_{d-1} & 0      & 0      & 0      & \\cdots & 0\n",
    "\\end{pmatrix}.\n",
    "$$"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Represent our Markov chain in cyclic normal form:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 51,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[[ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.5    0.5    0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.5    0.5    0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "permutation = np.concatenate(mc2.cyclic_classes)\n",
    "Q = mc2.P[permutation, :][:, permutation]\n",
    "print(Q)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Re-define the Markov chain with the above matrix `Q`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 52,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "mc2 = MarkovChain(Q)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Obtain the block components $P_0, \\cdots, P_{d-1}$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 53,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "P_0 =\n",
      "[[ 1.  0.]\n",
      " [ 1.  0.]\n",
      " [ 1.  0.]\n",
      " [ 0.  1.]]\n",
      "P_1 =\n",
      "[[ 0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     1.     0.   ]]\n",
      "P_2 =\n",
      "[[ 0.5  0.5  0.   0. ]\n",
      " [ 0.   0.   1.   0. ]\n",
      " [ 0.   1.   0.   0. ]\n",
      " [ 0.   0.   0.5  0.5]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "P_blocks = []\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(d):\n",
    "    P_blocks.append(mc2.P[mc2.cyclic_classes[i%d], :][:, mc2.cyclic_classes[(i+1)%d]])\n",
    "    print('P_{i} =\\n{P_block}'.format(i=i, P_block=P_blocks[i]))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "$P^d$ is block diagonal:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 54,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[[ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.833  0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "P_power_d = np.linalg.matrix_power(mc2.P, d)\n",
    "print(P_power_d)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 55,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0th diagonal block of P^d =\n",
      "[[ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]\n",
      " [ 0.     1.     0.     0.   ]]\n",
      "1st diagonal block of P^d =\n",
      "[[ 0.833  0.167]\n",
      " [ 1.     0.   ]]\n",
      "2nd diagonal block of P^d =\n",
      "[[ 0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "P_power_d_blocks = []\n",
    "ordinals = ['0th', '1st', '2nd']\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(d):\n",
    "    P_power_d_blocks.append(P_power_d[mc2.cyclic_classes[i], :][:, mc2.cyclic_classes[i]])\n",
    "    print('{ordinal} diagonal block of P^d =\\n{P_power_d_block}'\n",
    "          .format(ordinal=ordinals[i], P_power_d_block=P_power_d_blocks[i]))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The $i$th diagonal block of $P^d$ equals $P_i P_{i+1} \\cdots P_{d-1} P_0 \\cdots P_{i-1}$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 56,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "P_0 P_1 P_2 =\n",
      "[[ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]\n",
      " [ 0.     1.     0.     0.   ]]\n",
      "P_1 P_2 P_0 =\n",
      "[[ 0.833  0.167]\n",
      " [ 1.     0.   ]]\n",
      "P_2 P_0 P_1 =\n",
      "[[ 0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "products = []\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(d):\n",
    "    R = np.eye(P_blocks[i].shape[0])\n",
    "    string = ''\n",
    "    for j in range(d):\n",
    "        R = R.dot(P_blocks[(i+j)%d])\n",
    "        string += 'P_{0} '.format((i+j)%d)\n",
    "    products.append(R)\n",
    "    print(string + '=\\n{R}'.format(R=R))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 57,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "True\n",
      "True\n",
      "True\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for matrix0, matrix1 in zip(P_power_d_blocks, products):\n",
    "    print(np.array_equal(matrix0, matrix1))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Stationary distributions"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The Markov chain `mc2` has a unique stationary distribution,\n",
    "which we denote by $\\pi$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 58,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "1"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 58,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "len(mc2.stationary_distributions)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 59,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[ 0.048  0.095  0.143  0.048  0.286  0.048  0.095  0.095  0.048  0.095]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "pi = mc2.stationary_distributions[0]\n",
    "print(pi)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 60,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10de34240>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "draw_histogram(pi,\n",
    "               title='Stationary distribution', xlabel='States', ylim=(0, 0.35))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Obtain the stationary distributions $\\pi^0, \\ldots, \\pi^{d-1}$\n",
    "each associated with the diagonal blocks of $P^d$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 61,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "pi^0 =\n",
      "[ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143]\n",
      "pi^1 =\n",
      "[ 0.857  0.143]\n",
      "pi^2 =\n",
      "[ 0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "pi_s = []\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(d):\n",
    "    pi_s.append(MarkovChain(P_power_d_blocks[i]).stationary_distributions[0])\n",
    "    print('pi^{i} =\\n{pi_i}'.format(i=i, pi_i=pi_s[i]))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 62,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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LVX2xqn6Zpoj6KE3PNMy//fNdYT9fu/51z+2Tu4Dde+Y9dAnLmnM9sF+SPfqW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\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10de78710>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, d, figsize=(12, 3))\n",
    "\n",
    "for i, ax in enumerate(axes):\n",
    "    pi_i_full_dim = np.zeros(mc2.n)\n",
    "    pi_i_full_dim[mc2.cyclic_classes[i]] = pi_s[i]\n",
    "    draw_histogram(pi_i_full_dim,\n",
    "                   ax=ax, title='$\\pi^{i}$'.format(i=i), xlabel='States')\n",
    "\n",
    "fig.suptitle('Stationary distributions for the diagonal blocks',\n",
    "             y=-0.05, fontsize=12)\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Verify that $\\pi^{i+1} = \\pi^i P_i$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 63,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "pi^0 P_0 =\n",
      "[ 0.857  0.143]\n",
      "pi^1 P_1 =\n",
      "[ 0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      "pi^2 P_2 =\n",
      "[ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i in range(d):\n",
    "    print('pi^{i} P_{i} =\\n{dot}'.format(i=i, dot=np.dot(pi_s[i], P_blocks[i])))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Verify that $\\pi = (\\pi^0 + \\cdots + \\pi^{d-1})/d$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 64,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[ 0.048  0.095  0.143  0.048  0.286  0.048  0.095  0.095  0.048  0.095]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Right hand side of the above identity\n",
    "rhs = np.zeros(mc2.n)\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in range(d):\n",
    "    rhs[mc2.cyclic_classes[i]] = pi_s[i]\n",
    "rhs /= d\n",
    "print(rhs)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 65,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "True"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 65,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "np.allclose(pi, rhs)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Powers of $P$"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Since the Markov chain in consideration is periodic,\n",
    "the marginal distribution does not converge, but changes periodically."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Let us compute the powers of the transition probability matrix (in cyclic normal form):"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 66,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "np.set_printoptions(suppress=True)  # Suppress printing with floating point notation"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Print $P^1, P^2, \\ldots, P^d$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 67,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "P^1 =\n",
      "[[ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.5    0.5    0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.5    0.5    0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]]\n",
      "P^2 =\n",
      "[[ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.5    0.5    0.     0.     0.     0.   ]]\n",
      "P^3 =\n",
      "[[ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.833  0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     1.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.333  0.333  0.     0.333]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i in range(1, d+1):\n",
    "    print('P^{i} =\\n{P_i}'.format(i=i, P_i=np.linalg.matrix_power(mc2.P, i)))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Print $P^{2d}$, $P^{4d}$, and $P^{6d}$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 68,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "P^6 =\n",
      "[[ 0.139  0.306  0.417  0.139  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.139  0.306  0.417  0.139  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.139  0.306  0.417  0.139  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.167  0.167  0.5    0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.861  0.139  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.833  0.167  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.278  0.278  0.167  0.278]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.278  0.278  0.167  0.278]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.278  0.278  0.167  0.278]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.306  0.306  0.083  0.306]]\n",
      "P^12 =\n",
      "[[ 0.143  0.286  0.428  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.428  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.428  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.144  0.282  0.431  0.144  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.856  0.144  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.285  0.285  0.144  0.285]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.285  0.285  0.144  0.285]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.285  0.285  0.144  0.285]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.141  0.286]]\n",
      "P^18 =\n",
      "[[ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i in [k*d for k in [2, 4, 6]]:\n",
    "    print('P^{i} =\\n{P_i}'.format(i=i, P_i=np.linalg.matrix_power(mc2.P, i)))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "$P^{kd}$ converges as $k \\to \\infty$ to a matrix that contains $\\pi^0, \\ldots, \\pi^{d-1}$."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Print $P^{kd+1}, \\ldots, P^{kd+d}$ with $k = 10$ for example:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 69,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "P^31 =\n",
      "[[ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]]\n",
      "P^32 =\n",
      "[[ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]]\n",
      "P^33 =\n",
      "[[ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.143  0.286  0.429  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.857  0.143  0.     0.     0.     0.   ]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]\n",
      " [ 0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.     0.286  0.286  0.143  0.286]]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for i in range(10*d+1, 10*d+1+d):\n",
    "    print('P^{i} =\\n{P_i}'.format(i=i, P_i=np.linalg.matrix_power(mc2.P, i)))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "But $P^i$ itself does not converge."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Simulation"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Plot the frequency distribution of visits to the states\n",
    "along a sample path starting at state `0`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 70,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[ 0.047  0.092  0.148  0.046  0.287  0.046  0.093  0.098  0.046  0.096]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 0\n",
    "dist = time_series_dist(mc2, init=init, t=10**4)\n",
    "print(dist)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 71,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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REYVJsEdEFCbBHhFRmAR7RERhEuwREYVJsEdEFCbBHhFRmL7BLmm5pA2SbpV0Tof1b5R0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\nH6OFzIj5tgGOAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10e223748>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "draw_histogram(dist,\n",
    "               title='Time series distribution with init={0}'.format(init),\n",
    "               xlabel='States', ylim=(0, 0.35))\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Observe that the distribution is close to the (unique) stationary distribution $\\pi$."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 72,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[ 0.048  0.095  0.143  0.048  0.286  0.048  0.095  0.095  0.048  0.095]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(pi)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Next, plot the simulated marginal distributions\n",
    "at $T = 10d+1, \\ldots, 11d, 11d+1, \\ldots, 12d$ with initial state `0`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 73,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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nTqfFvEoH6nJewcxKw9Y61EGSJEnaFGx8JUmS1As2vpIkSeoFG19JkiT1go2v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\n4ytJkqRe+P8ByK6st2Vo4S0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10ea55080>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "init = 0\n",
    "k = 10\n",
    "Ts = [k*d + 1 + i for i in range(2*d)]\n",
    "num_reps = 10**2\n",
    "dists = cross_sectional_dist(mc2, T=Ts, init=init, num_reps=num_reps)\n",
    "\n",
    "fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, d, figsize=(12, 6))\n",
    "for dist, T, ax in zip(dists, Ts, axes.flatten()):\n",
    "    draw_histogram(dist, ax=ax,\n",
    "                   title='T = {T}'.format(T=T))\n",
    "fig.suptitle('Cross sectional distributions with init={init}'.format(init=init),\n",
    "             y=0.05, fontsize=12)\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Compare these with the rows of $P^{10d+1}, \\ldots, P^{10d+d}$."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Example 3: Nearly completely decomposable chain"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Consider the Markov chain given by the following stochastic matrix $P^{\\varepsilon}$,\n",
    "parameterized by $\\varepsilon$:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 74,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def P_epsilon(eps, p=0.5):\n",
    "    P = np.array([[1-(p+eps), p,         eps],\n",
    "                  [p,         1-(p+eps), eps],\n",
    "                  [eps,       eps,       1-2*eps]])\n",
    "    return P"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "If $\\varepsilon = 0$,\n",
    "then the Markovh chain is reducible into two recurrent classes, `[0, 1]` and `[2]`:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 75,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([[ 0.5,  0.5,  0. ],\n",
       "       [ 0.5,  0.5,  0. ],\n",
       "       [ 0. ,  0. ,  1. ]])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 75,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "P_epsilon(0)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 76,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[array([0, 1]), array([2])]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 76,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "MarkovChain(P_epsilon(0)).recurrent_classes"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "If $\\varepsilon > 0$ but small, the chain is irreducible,\n",
    "but transition within each of the subsets `[0, 1]` and `[2]` is much more likely\n",
    "than that between these sets."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 77,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array([[ 0.499,  0.5  ,  0.001],\n",
       "       [ 0.5  ,  0.499,  0.001],\n",
       "       [ 0.001,  0.001,  0.998]])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 77,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "P_epsilon(0.001)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 78,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[array([0, 1, 2])]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 78,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "MarkovChain(P_epsilon(0.001)).recurrent_classes"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Analytically, the unique stationary distribution of the chain with $\\varepsilon > 0$\n",
    "is `(1/3, 1/3, 1/3)`, independent of the value of $\\varepsilon$."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "However,\n",
    "for such matrices with small values of $\\varepsilon > 0$,\n",
    "general purpose eigenvalue solvers are numerically unstable.\n",
    "\n",
    "For example, if we use [`numpy.linalg.eig`](http://docs.scipy.org/doc/numpy/reference/generated/numpy.linalg.eig.html)\n",
    "to compute the eigenvector that corresponds\n",
    "to the dominant (i.e., largest in magnitude) eigenvalue:"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 79,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "np.set_printoptions(precision=15)  # Increase the number of digits printed"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 80,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "epsilon = 1e-12\n",
      "[ 0.33333662324477   0.33333662324477   0.333326753510459]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-13\n",
      "[ 0.333344849397111  0.333344849397111  0.333310301205779]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-14\n",
      "[ 0.333000773366967  0.333000773366967  0.333998453266065]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-15\n",
      "[ 0.329141015582661  0.329141015582661  0.341717968834677]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-16\n",
      "[ 0.5  0.5  0. ]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-17\n",
      "[ 0.5  0.5  0. ]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "epsilons = [float('1e-{i}'.format(i=i)) for i in range(12, 18)]\n",
    "for eps in epsilons:\n",
    "    print('epsilon = {eps}'.format(eps=eps))\n",
    "    w, v = np.linalg.eig(P_epsilon(eps).T)\n",
    "    i = w.argmax()\n",
    "    print(v[:, i]/v[:, i].sum())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The output becomes farther from the actual stationary distribution `(1/3, 1/3, 1/3)`\n",
    "as $\\varepsilon$ becomes smaller."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "The same applies to [`scipy.linalg.eig`](http://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/generated/scipy.linalg.eig.htm):"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 81,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "epsilon = 1e-12\n",
      "[ 0.33333662324477   0.33333662324477   0.333326753510459]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-13\n",
      "[ 0.333344849397131  0.333344849397131  0.333310301205738]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-14\n",
      "[ 0.333883550460886  0.333883550460886  0.332232899078228]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-15\n",
      "[ 0.329141015582661  0.329141015582661  0.341717968834677]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-16\n",
      "[ 0.344742003948057  0.344742003948057  0.310515992103886]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-17\n",
      "[ 0.523579944426163  0.523579944426163 -0.047159888852327]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import scipy.linalg\n",
    "\n",
    "for eps in epsilons:\n",
    "    print('epsilon = {eps}'.format(eps=eps))\n",
    "    w, v = scipy.linalg.eig(P_epsilon(eps), left=True, right=False)\n",
    "    i = w.argmax()\n",
    "    print(v[:, i]/v[:, i].sum())"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "`MarkovChain` in `quantecon` employs\n",
    "the algorithm called the \"[GTH algorithm](http://quanteconpy.readthedocs.org/en/stable/markov/gth_solve.html)\",\n",
    "which is a numerically stable variant of Gaussian elimination,\n",
    "specialized for Markov chains."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 82,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "epsilon = 1e-12\n",
      "[ 0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-13\n",
      "[ 0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-14\n",
      "[ 0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-15\n",
      "[ 0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-16\n",
      "[ 0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-17\n",
      "[ 0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333]\n",
      "epsilon = 1e-100\n",
      "[ 0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333  0.333333333333333]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for eps in epsilons + [1e-100]:\n",
    "    print('epsilon = {eps}'.format(eps=eps))\n",
    "    print(MarkovChain(P_epsilon(eps)).stationary_distributions[0])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "source": [
    "It succeeds in obtaining the correct stationary distribution for any value of $\\varepsilon$."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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