-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 13
/
burundi.py
274 lines (212 loc) · 11.5 KB
/
burundi.py
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
from flee import flee
from datamanager import handle_refugee_data
from datamanager import DataTable
import numpy as np
import outputanalysis.analysis as a
import sys
"""
Generation 1 code. Incorporates only distance, travel always takes one day.
"""
#Burundi Simulation
def date_to_sim_days(date):
return DataTable.subtract_dates(date,"2015-05-01")
if __name__ == "__main__":
if len(sys.argv)>1:
if (sys.argv[1]).isnumeric():
end_time = int(sys.argv[1])
last_physical_day = int(sys.argv[1])
else:
end_time = 396
last_physical_day = 396
duration = flee.SimulationSettings.SimulationSettings.ReadFromCSV(sys.argv[1])
if duration>0:
end_time = duration
last_physical_day = end_time
else:
end_time = 396
last_physical_day = 396
e = flee.Ecosystem()
locations = []
#Burundi
locations.append(e.addLocation("Bujumbura", movechance="conflict", pop=497166))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Bubanza", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Bukinanyana", movechance="default", pop=75750))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Cibitoke", movechance="default", pop=460435))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Isale", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Muramvya", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Kayanza", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Kabarore", movechance="default", pop=62303)) #This resides in Kayanza province in Burundi. Not to be confused with Kabarore, Rwanda.
locations.append(e.addLocation("Mwaro", movechance="default", pop=273143))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Rumonge", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Burambi", movechance="default", pop=57167))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Bururi", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Rutana", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Makamba", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Gitega", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Karuzi", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Ruyigi", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Gisuru", movechance="default", pop=99461))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Cankuzo", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Muyinga", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Kirundo", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Ngozi", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Gashoho", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Gitega-Ruyigi", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Makebuko", movechance="default"))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Commune of Mabanda", movechance="default"))
#Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and DRCongo camps
locations.append(e.addLocation("Mahama", movechance="camp", capacity=49451, foreign=True))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Nduta", movechance="default", capacity=55320, foreign=True)) # Nduta open on 2015-08-10
locations.append(e.addLocation("Kagunga", movechance=1/21.0, foreign=True))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Nyarugusu", movechance="camp", capacity=100925, foreign=True))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Nakivale", movechance="camp", capacity=18734, foreign=True))
locations.append(e.addLocation("Lusenda", movechance="default", capacity=17210, foreign=True))
#Within Burundi
e.linkUp("Bujumbura","Bubanza","48.0")
e.linkUp("Bubanza","Bukinanyana","74.0")
e.linkUp("Bujumbura","Cibitoke","63.0")
e.linkUp("Cibitoke","Bukinanyana","49.0")
e.linkUp("Bujumbura","Muramvya","58.0")
e.linkUp("Muramvya","Gitega","44.0")
e.linkUp("Gitega","Karuzi","54.0")
e.linkUp("Gitega","Ruyigi","55.0")
e.linkUp("Ruyigi","Karuzi","43.0")
e.linkUp("Karuzi","Muyinga","42.0")
e.linkUp("Bujumbura","Kayanza","95.0")
e.linkUp("Kayanza","Ngozi","31.0") ##
e.linkUp("Ngozi","Gashoho","41.0") ##
e.linkUp("Kayanza","Kabarore","18.0")
e.linkUp("Gashoho","Kirundo","42.0")
e.linkUp("Gashoho","Muyinga","34.0")
e.linkUp("Bujumbura","Mwaro","67.0")
e.linkUp("Mwaro","Gitega","46.0")
e.linkUp("Bujumbura","Rumonge","75.0")
e.linkUp("Rumonge","Bururi","31.0")
e.linkUp("Rumonge","Burambi","22.0")
e.linkUp("Rumonge","Commune of Mabanda","73.0")
e.linkUp("Commune of Mabanda","Makamba","18.0") # ??
e.linkUp("Bururi","Rutana","65.0")
e.linkUp("Makamba","Rutana","50.0") # ??
e.linkUp("Rutana","Makebuko","46.0") # ??
e.linkUp("Makebuko","Gitega","24.0") # ??
e.linkUp("Makebuko","Ruyigi","40.0")
e.linkUp("Ruyigi","Cankuzo","51.0")
e.linkUp("Ruyigi","Gisuru","31.0")
e.linkUp("Cankuzo","Muyinga","63.0")
#Camps, starting at index locations[26] (at time of writing).
e.linkUp("Muyinga","Mahama","135.0")
e.linkUp("Kirundo","Mahama","183.0") #Shorter route than via Gashoho and Muyinga. Goes through Bugesera, where a transit centre is located according to UNHCR reports.
e.linkUp("Gisuru","Nduta","60.0")
e.linkUp("Commune of Mabanda","Kagunga","36.0")
e.linkUp("Commune of Mabanda","Nyarugusu","71.0") #Estimated distance, as exact location of Nyarugusu is uncertain.
e.linkUp("Kagunga","Nyarugusu","91.0", forced_redirection=True) #From Kagunga to Kigoma by ship (Kagunga=Kigoma)
e.linkUp("Kirundo","Nakivale","318.0")
e.linkUp("Kayanza","Nakivale","413.0")
e.linkUp("Nduta","Nyarugusu","150.0", forced_redirection=True) #distance needs to be checked.
d = handle_refugee_data.RefugeeTable(csvformat="generic", data_directory="source_data/burundi2015", start_date="2015-05-01")
# Correcting for overestimations due to inaccurate level 1 registrations in five of the camps.
# These errors led to a perceived large drop in refugee population in all of these camps.
# We correct by linearly scaling the values down to make the last level 1 registration match the first level 2 registration value.
# To our knowledge, all level 2 registration procedures were put in place by the end of 2016.
d.correctLevel1Registrations("Mahama","2015-10-04")
d.correctLevel1Registrations("Nduta","2016-04-06")
d.correctLevel1Registrations("Nyarugusu","2015-11-10")
d.correctLevel1Registrations("Nakivale","2015-08-18")
d.correctLevel1Registrations("Lusenda","2015-09-30")
locations[26].capacity = d.getMaxFromData("Mahama", last_physical_day)
locations[27].capacity = d.getMaxFromData("Nduta", last_physical_day)
locations[29].capacity = d.getMaxFromData("Nyarugusu", last_physical_day)
locations[30].capacity = d.getMaxFromData("Nakivale", last_physical_day)
locations[31].capacity = d.getMaxFromData("Lusenda", last_physical_day)
list_of_cities = "Time"
for l in locations:
list_of_cities = "%s,%s" % (list_of_cities, l.name)
#print(list_of_cities)
#print("Time, campname")
print("Day,Mahama sim,Mahama data,Mahama error,Nduta sim,Nduta data,Nduta error,Nyarugusu sim,Nyarugusu data,Nyarugusu error,Nakivale sim,Nakivale data,Nakivale error,Lusenda sim,Lusenda data,Lusenda error,Total error,refugees in camps (UNHCR),total refugees (simulation),raw UNHCR refugee count,retrofitted time,refugees in camps (simulation),refugee_debt,Total error (retrofitted)")
#Set up a mechanism to incorporate temporary decreases in refugees
refugee_debt = 0
refugees_raw = 0 #raw (interpolated) data from TOTAL UNHCR refugee count only
e.add_conflict_zone("Bujumbura")
t_retrofitted = 0
for t in range(0,end_time):
t_data = t
#Lusenda camp open on the 30th of July 2015
if t_data == date_to_sim_days("2015-07-30"): #Open Lusenda
locations[31].SetCampMoveChance()
locations[31].Camp=True
e.linkUp("Bujumbura","Lusenda","53.0") #Only added when the refugee inflow starts at Lusenda, on 30-07-2015
if t_data == date_to_sim_days("2015-08-10"):
locations[27].SetCampMoveChance()
locations[27].Camp=True
e.remove_link("Nduta","Nyarugusu")
e.linkUp("Nduta","Nyarugusu","150.0") #Re-add link, but without forced redirection
#Append conflict_zone and weight to list.
#Conflict zones after the start of simulation period
if t_data == date_to_sim_days("2015-07-10"): #Intense fighting between military & multineer military forces
e.add_conflict_zone("Kabarore")
elif t_data == date_to_sim_days("2015-07-11"): #Intense fighting between military & mulineer military forces
e.add_conflict_zone("Bukinanyana")
elif t_data == date_to_sim_days("2015-07-15"): #Battles unidentified armed groups coordinately attacked military barracks
e.add_conflict_zone("Cibitoke")
elif t_data == date_to_sim_days("2015-10-26"): #Clashes and battles police forces
e.add_conflict_zone("Mwaro")
elif t_data == date_to_sim_days("2015-11-23"): #Battles unidentified armed groups coordinate attacks
e.add_conflict_zone("Gisuru")
elif t_data == date_to_sim_days("2015-12-08"): #Military forces
e.add_conflict_zone("Burambi")
#new_refs = d.get_new_refugees(t)
new_refs = d.get_new_refugees(t, FullInterpolation=True) - refugee_debt
refugees_raw += d.get_new_refugees(t, FullInterpolation=True)
if new_refs < 0:
refugee_debt = -new_refs
new_refs = 0
elif refugee_debt > 0:
refugee_debt = 0
# Here we use the random choice to make a weighted choice between the source locations.
e.add_agents_to_conflict_zones(new_refs)
#Propagate the model by one time step.
e.evolve()
#e.printInfo()
#Validation/data comparison
mahama_data = d.get_field("Mahama", t) #- d.get_field("Mahama", 0)
nduta_data = d.get_field("Nduta", t) #-d.get_field("Nduta", 0)
nyarugusu_data = d.get_field("Nyarugusu", t) #- d.get_field("Nyarugusu", 0)
nakivale_data = d.get_field("Nakivale", t) #- d.get_field("Nakivale", 0)
lusenda_data = d.get_field("Lusenda", t) #- d.get_field("Lusenda", 0)
errors = []
abs_errors = []
loc_data = [mahama_data, nduta_data, nyarugusu_data, nakivale_data, lusenda_data]
camp_locations = [26, 27, 29, 30, 31]
camps = []
for i in camp_locations:
camps += [locations[i]]
camp_names = ["Mahama", "Nduta", "Nyarugusu", "Nakivale", "Lusenda"]
camp_pops_retrofitted = []
errors_retrofitted = []
abs_errors_retrofitted = []
# calculate retrofitted time.
refugees_in_camps_sim = 0
for c in camps:
refugees_in_camps_sim += c.numAgents
t_retrofitted = d.retrofit_time_to_refugee_count(refugees_in_camps_sim, camp_names)
# calculate errors
for i in range(0,len(camp_locations)):
camp_number = camp_locations[i]
errors += [a.rel_error(locations[camp_number].numAgents, loc_data[i])]
abs_errors += [a.abs_error(locations[camp_number].numAgents, loc_data[i])]
# errors when using retrofitted time stepping.
camp_pops_retrofitted += [d.get_field(camp_names[i], t_retrofitted, FullInterpolation=True)]
errors_retrofitted += [a.rel_error(camps[i].numAgents, camp_pops_retrofitted[-1])]
abs_errors_retrofitted += [a.abs_error(camps[i].numAgents, camp_pops_retrofitted[-1])]
output = "%s" % t
for i in range(0,len(errors)):
camp_number = camp_locations[i]
output += ",%s,%s,%s" % (locations[camp_number].numAgents, loc_data[i], errors[i])
if refugees_raw>0:
#output_string += ",%s,%s,%s,%s" % (float(np.sum(abs_errors))/float(refugees_raw), int(sum(loc_data)), e.numAgents(), refugees_raw)
output += ",%s,%s,%s,%s,%s,%s,%s,%s" % (float(np.sum(abs_errors))/float(refugees_raw), int(sum(loc_data)), e.numAgents(), refugees_raw, t_retrofitted, refugees_in_camps_sim, refugee_debt, float(np.sum(abs_errors_retrofitted))/float(refugees_raw))
else:
output += ",0,0,0,0,0,0,0"
#output_string += ",0"
print(output)