Research Request - Basic VMT to Ridership Model

[edasmalchi]

"What if VMT decreased by 25% per the CARB target, and all those trips were on (existing) transit instead?"

Support TTTF with a basic model allowing us to test basic assumptions across geographies, helping frame the conversation.

VMT is a spatial phenomenon, our analysis should be spatial too

• Start with "big data" weekday residential VMT per Census tract via Replica
• Per target, future VMT should be 25% less
• Assume tripmaking remains constant, and that transit entirely replaces that VMT
  • optional: find tracts with no transit service, hold their VMT constant and redistribute missed target among remaining tracts (30% reduction instead of 25% perhaps?)

From reduced VMT to transit trips

• Get a rough estimate by dividing reduced VMT in each tract by median transit trip distance, or median auto trip distance if transit data not available from Replica