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Courtesy of Roy Edroso:
oy Edroso Breaks It Down
Have a Cold War liberal Christmas!
Here we are in A Christmas Carol season. Regular readers know Ia€™ m partial to the Alastair Sim
version a€” the hammy Victorianism of it suits me (and, I think, Dickens) right down to the ground.
But some of the other versions have their charms and sidelights to throw on that grand moral fable
of recalcitrance and redemption. A friend tipped me to
the relatively obscure 1964 Rod Serling versiona€!
Read more
2 months ago A- 4 likes A- 4 comments A- Roy Edroso
Share Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
ONE IMAGE: Weather:
Friday’s Predicted Cold Snap
Low temperature difference from normal for Dec. 23
Leave a comment
Very Briefly Noted:
• Gray Brechlin: Just Scratching the Surface I Living New Deala€!
• Matt Levine: FTX Had Some Luna Troublea€!
• Adam Blenkov: Brexit Costs us A£750 Million a Week. Let's Spend it on the NHS Instead: a€~A new
estimate puts the cost of Brexit to the UK at around A£40 billion a yeara€!
• David Autor, Arindrajit Dube & Annie McGrew: The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in
the Low Wage Economya€!
• Antonin Bergeaud & Cyril Verluise: The rise of China's technological power: the perspective from
frontier technologies: a€~Patent dataa€! automated patent landscapinga€L contribution to frontier
technology has become quantitatively similar to the US in the late 2010s while overcoming the
European and Japanese contributions^!
• David Colander: Was Keynes a Keynesian or a Lernerian?a€!
• Chance: a€~If you wonder what might be motivating Elona€™ s recent revenge-porn-style
dirt-digging-in-Slack-archives hype-apalooza, you should familiarize yourself w/whata€™ s going
ona€”i.e., $140m owed to execs if Elon cana€™ t prove they were fired for causea€!
• Azeem Azhar: My second robot brain: a€~Three ways in which ChatGPT improves our quality of
thinkinga€!. The divergent thinker. The challenging critic. The verbaliser...
• Anne Applebaum: The Brutal Alternate World in Which the U.S. Abandoned Ukraine: a€~Ukrainian
resistance and American support prevented a wide range of horrorsa€!
Start writing today. Use the button below to create your Substack and connect your publication with
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
Start a Substack
AJs:
Noah Smith: Techno-optimism for 2023: 'Techno-optimist.... 2020 happened.... Cutting-edge
technology... near-miraculous vaccines and treatments.... Climate change suddenly appear solvable,
thanks to a near-miraculous explosion in green energy tech I see lots of technological
developments that are either changing our world in major ways already, or
seem likely to change it soon.... The A.I. breakout.... Co-authorship is exactly the right model
for what a lot of human beings are going to be doing with these new AI tools.... The key reason to
be optimistic about AI is that it isna€™ t slowing down. If it extends the powers of our minds the
way physical technology extended the powers of our bodies,
another productivity boom is probably ahead. The energy revolution rolls onward.... The solar
revolution is going from theoretical to actual.... This is exactly what people who looked at the
solar cost curve were predicting for years.... The strange biotech boom.... The big advances are
happening in a bunch of different directions. These are just three
particularly exciting areas of technological progress. There are others...
Simon Kennedy: Wages in Crosshairs: a€~The pivotal question for Fed officials is whether the climb
in US pay over the past 18 months or so is a one-time bump a€” as companies adjust to scarce labor
supply, and a realization that their workforce was under-compensated a€” or a pernicious feedback
loop in which prices and wages drive each other up.
The signs are that theya€™re not willing to take any chancesa€!
Tej Parikh: Ricardo Reis: a€~Central banks must balance bringing inflation down without breaking
thingsa€™: a€~We had a lot of very bad shocks together with a few missed judgment calls on the part
of central banksa€! surprised by the speed of the recovery from the pandemic, the supply chain
disruptions and the energy crisis, whilea€! not paying
enough attention to inflation expectations data. This meant that inflation rose more and was more
permanent than what it might have beena€!. A theorist of monetary policy who is thinking about
economic mechanisms saw a lot of red flags and worried that the 5 per cent would persist. Empirics
is wonderful when wea€™ re in a stable and steady regime;
theory is what you need when you have big shocks and possible regime changesa€!. The big forecast
errors of a€oeteam transitorya€n 18 months ago seemed to come from putting too much emphasis on
micro data and so mistaking the forest for the treesa€!. If we had raised rates earlier, we
wouldna€™ t have had so much inflation nowa€!. Firms, wage
setters, price setters, speculators, professionals at banks, everyone thinks that inflation is
going to be at 2 per cent in the medium-term. A recession was always going to happen for the
eurozone and UK which are large net importers of energy. Therea€™ s not much that central banks
could do about thata€!. Then, later, as inflation comes down close to 2 per
cent, are there good reasons to ask whethera€! [we should] have an inflation target of 3 per cent?
The answer is probably yesa€!. Credibility is not tarnished because longer-term inflation
expectations are anchored.a€! The recession of next year is caused by Putina€™ s invasion of
Ukrainea€!
Tom Nichols: Zelensky Knows the Clock Is Ticking: a€~The real question, though, is whether anything
Zelensky can say will matter to a Republican Party that has decided to torment the ghost of Ronald
Reagan by taking sides with a neo-imperial Soviet nostalgist. Rank-and-file Republicans support
aiding Ukraine against Russia. But the Trumpian
GOP is now controlled by its fringe, the same activists and primary voters who wear the a€oela€™ d
rather be a Russian than a Democrat" T-shirts. Republicans performing for their base are unlikely
to change their views now. But Zelensky is about to speak to all of America, and his presence in
Washington will help remind people that this is not some
esoteric foreign-policy tangle, but a brutal, bloody human contest between democracy and
authoritarianism. His presence in front of a divided Congress mighta€”at least, we can hopea€”help
Americans ignore the cartoonish objections of right-wing pundits.... The war in Ukraine is not
over...
Give a gift subscription
Get 50% off a group subscription
Donate Subscriptions
Read null in the Substack app
Available for iOS and Android
Get the app
Simon Kennedy: Wages in Crosshairs: a€~The pivotal question for Fed officials is whether the climb
in US pay over the past 18 months or so is a one-time bump a€” as companies adjust to scarce labor
supply, and a realization that their workforce was under-compensated a€” or a pernicious feedback
loop in which prices and wages drive each other up.
The signs are that theya€™re not willing to take any chancesa€!
Tej Parikh: Ricardo Reis: a€~Central banks must balance bringing inflation down without breaking
thingsa€™: a€~We had a lot of very bad shocks together with a few missed judgment calls on the part
of central banksa€! surprised by the speed of the recovery from the pandemic, the supply chain
disruptions and the energy crisis, whilea€! not paying
enough attention to inflation expectations data. This meant that inflation rose more and was more
permanent than what it might have beena€!. A theorist of monetary policy who is thinking about
economic mechanisms saw a lot of red flags and worried that the 5 per cent would persist. Empirics
is wonderful when wea€™ re in a stable and steady regime;
theory is what you need when you have big shocks and possible regime changesa€!. The big forecast
errors of a€oeteam transitorya€n 18 months ago seemed to come from putting too much emphasis on
micro data and so mistaking the forest for the treesa€!. If we had raised rates earlier, we
wouldna€™ t have had so much inflation nowa€!. Firms, wage
setters, price setters, speculators, professionals at banks, everyone thinks that inflation is
going to be at 2 per cent in the medium-term. A recession was always going to happen for the
eurozone and UK which are large net importers of energy. Therea€™ s not much that central banks
could do about thata€L Then, later, as inflation comes down close to 2 per
cent, are there good reasons to ask whethera€! [we should] have an inflation target of 3 per cent?
The answer is probably yesa€!. Credibility is not tarnished because longer-term inflation
expectations are anchored.a€! The recession of next year is caused by Putina€™ s invasion of
Ukrainea€!
Tom Nichols: Zelensky Knows the Clock Is Ticking: a€~The real question, though, is whether anything
Zelensky can say will matter to a Republican Party that has decided to torment the ghost of Ronald
Reagan by taking sides with a neo-imperial Soviet nostalgist. Rank-and-file Republicans support
aiding Ukraine against Russia. But the Trumpian
GOP is now controlled by its fringe, the same activists and primary voters who wear the a€oela€™ d
rather be a Russian than a Democrat" T-shirts. Republicans performing for their base are unlikely
to change their views now. But Zelensky is about to speak to all of America, and his presence in
Washington will help remind people that this is not some
esoteric foreign-policy tangle, but a brutal, bloody human contest between democracy and
authoritarianism. His presence in front of a divided Congress mighta€”at least, we can hopea€”help
Americans ignore the cartoonish objections of right-wing pundits.... The war in Ukraine is not
over...
Give a gift subscription
Get 50% off a group subscription
Donate Subscriptions
Read null in the Substack app
Available for iOS and Android
Get the app