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CONDITION: Coyotes in Berkeley:
Three on the Upper Strawberry Canyon Trail:
Yes, they were 40 yards away. But they were in no hurry to move off when 140 lbs. of dog and I came
around the bend.
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LECTURE NOTES: 75,000 Years of Human Population & Average Income:
Trying to pull together the lecture notes for my Economics 135: History of Economic Growth for next
semestera€!
I have my fifteen minute introductory course-launch:
Introduction to a€ceHistory of Economic Growtha€D
Let me talk for 15 minutes, and then leta€™ s see if we can have a discussion here: I take 1870 to
be the hinge of history. Starting in 1870 it became cleara€”with human technological competence
deploy ed-ana€ I
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2 months ago A- 1 like A- Brad DeLong
The next question is whether I should then go back and explain how I have constructed the guesses
in this table:
Global Longest-Run Global Economic Growth
Date
Ideas
Growth
Rate h
Ideas
Stock
Level H
Real
Income/
Capita y
Popula
tion P
(millions)
Total Income Y
(billions)
Population
Growth
Rate n
Labor
Efficiency-
Growth Rate g
-73000
-68000
-48000
-30000
0.01 Sub-speciation gateway?
0.0082 $1,200 0.1 $0.12 Establishment of homo sapiens sapiens?
0.046%
0.002% 0.011 $1,200 0.2 $0.24 Final radiation from Africa?
0.003% 0.000%
0.003% 0.018 $1,200 0.5 $1 Late Paleolithic era
0.005% 0.000%
-8000
-6000
-4000
-3000
-1500
-1000
-400
150
800
1000
1500
1770
1870
1930
1975
2020
2077
2100
2200
0.005% 0.057 $1,200 5 $6
0.003% 0.061 $900 10 $9
0.007% 0.070 $900 13.23 $12
0.007% 0.074 $900 15 $14
0.030% 0.117 $900 37 $33
0.030% 0.136 $900 50 $45
0.060% 0.195 $900 103 $93
0.060% 0.272 $900 200 $180
0.007% 0.285 $900 220 $198
0.078% 0.333 $900 300 $270
0.062% 0.467 $1,000 480 $480
0.146% 0.694 $1,100 875 $963
0.365% 1.000 $1,300 1300 $1,690
1.793% 3.000 $3,000 2100 $6,300
2.256% 9.000 $6,000 4000 $24,000
2.282% 27.000 $12,000 7800 $93,600
1.939% 81.000 $33,173 9311 $308,857
1.939% 127.381 $50,000 10000 $500,000 ?
Neolithic revolution 0.010% 0.000%
Agrarian society 0.035% -0.014%
Final start of “urbanization”? 0.014% 0.000%
Start of Bronze-Literacy age 0.014% 0.000%
Bronze-Literacy mode of production 0.060% 0.000%
Start of Iron age 0.060% 0.000%
“Ancient” mode of domination (“Asiatic”?) 0.121% 0.000%
High Antiquity 0.121% 0.000%
Late-Antiquity Pause 0.015% 0.000%
Feudal mode of production 0.155% 0.000%
Commercial-Gunpowder-Empire mode of domination 0.094% 0.015%
Imperial-Commercial Revolution age (“bourgeois society”) 0.222% 0.035%
Steampower mode of production 0.396% 0.167%
Second-Industrial-Revolution mode of production 0.799% 1.394%
Mass-Production mode of production 1.432% 1.540%
Global-Value-Chain mode of production 1.484% 1.540%
Info-Biotech mode of production 0.311 % 1.784%
Into the Future? 0.311 % 1.784%
of the shape of the human economy over the past 75000 years, or whether I should simply assign my
explanation as reading:
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ONE IMAGE: Old World Population in A%e Bronze & Iron Ages:
Asia’s population in the
Near East, the Indian
subcontinent (particularly
the Indus valley) and China
(particularly the Yellow River
valley). • 01 m people
Fig. 2.3 The Old World; population distribution in 3000 BC
Fig. 2.4 The Old World; population distribution in 4 III BC
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OA34er Things Azt Went Whizzing bya€!
Very Briefly Noted:
• Mohamed El-Erian: Next yeara€™ s unpleasant choices confronting the Fed: a€~Central bank might
stick officially to 2% inflation target but, in practice, pursue a higher onea€!
• Aeem Azhar: The lost pony: a€~Here we are, 14 years into the crypto era. There is one proven use
case: financial speculation. This doesn't have to be its destinya€!. Vitalik Buterina€! posted his
reflectionsa€L His truly standout track record speaks for itselfa€!. But I was underwhelmed by his
honest analysisa€!
• The Last Bear Standing: Barbarian at the Gate: The Twitter Buyout: a€~Valuation, Sources & Uses,
Buyout Model, and Sensitivitiesa€!
• M. R. Rampino & S.H. Ambrose: Volcanic Winter in the Garden of Eden: The Toba Supereruptilnn &
the Late Pleistocene Human Population Crasha€!
• Aaron Rupar & Thor Benson: Dan Froomkin on the state of political journalism: a€~Froomkina€™ s
most recent post takes the Timesa€™ Peter Baker to task for soft-pedaling Trumpa€™ s recent
Mar-a-Lago dinner two antisemites. He writes: a€oeBaker ends by quoting yet another Republican
political strategist posing the question of whether Trump is just pretending to adhere to fringe
conspiracy theories, or whether hea€™ s actually bought
in. Thata€™ s a stupid question. My question is: What more will it take for journalistic
institutions like the Times to acknowledge that what Trump is saying requires condemnation, not
speculation^!
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AJs:
Dan Davies: The $80tn a€oehidden debta€D and what it really means: a€~Every publication of
financial statistics ought to have the same picture on the cover a€” Goyaa€™ s a€oeThe Sleep Of
Reason Produces Monstersa€D. It would help to deter the tidy-minded truth seekers who are reliably
driven mad by the crazy world of financial accounting^!. For a normal person or company, finding
out that youa€™ ve got more debt than you thought you had is a
horrible thinga€!. If the global financial system really was running on a macro-scale version of
Sam Bankman-Frieda€™ s sloppy spreadsheets, that would be a reason to panic. But the BIS doesna€™ t
claim thisa€!. If we dona€™ t get hung up on the d-word, then the BIS analysis is valuablea€!
describes is the extent to which the global role of the US dollar is dependent on the Fed being
willing to act as the lender of last resort to the international market as
well as the domestic one. And the fact that this rolea€”and the consequent international liability
a€’’has not only grown so fast, but done so in a way thata€™ s heavily underestimated by the
statistics, seems like ita€™ s something worth knowinga€!
Sam Hammond: Before the flood: a€~It doesna€™ t have to be this way. We can fight AI fire with AI
fire and adapt our practices along the way. But there are an awful lot of laws that will need
changing. So ita€™ d just help if our leaders understood whata€™ s at stake and seized the first
mover advantage. According to Acemoglu and Robinson, liberal democratic institutions exist within a
a€oenarrow corridora€D between anarchy and authoritarianism.
Whenever technology changes the power balance between society and the state, institutions must
adapt to keep the two in harmony. Thata€™ s where our 70 year old institutions came from in the
first place: as an update to 19th century liberalism given the new challenges created by the second
industrial revolution. The so-called a€oefourth industrial revolutiona€D will force institutional
change just as sweeping, lest Snow Crashian anarchy or a Chinese-style
panopticon become paths of least resistance. Like the Red Queen said to Alice, we need to start
running just to keep in placea€!
Matt Yglesias: Why hasna€™t technology disrupted higher education already?: a€~Englisha€!
a€celecturea€D derives from Medieval Latina€™ s a€celecturaa€da€! cognate with words like
a€celecteura€D (French) and a€celectora€D (Spanish) which mean a€cereader.a€D... Today, giving a
lecture that consisted of simply standing at a podium reading a book would be considered bad
practice. But several hundred years ago, books were extremely
expensive because hand-copying manuscripts doesna€™ t scale. What does scale, at least to an
extent, is the human voice. So an institution could serve the very useful function of providing a
place where students could gather to hear a person read out loud from a book and write down what
the lecturer was saying, securing knowledge. An institution like that would need to have a lot of
books on hand and a scholar would need ready access to books, so producing
scholarship was highly complementary to lecturinga€!. Thus was born the familiar university bundle
that combines libraries, scholarship, teaching, and certification. This is a somewhat rickety pile
of in-principle-separate ideas that really does seem vulnerable to technological disruption. On its
face, the relevant disruptive technology should have been the printing press, and the disruption
should have happened three or four hundred years ago...
Doug Jones: Barbarigenesis and the collapse of complex societies: Rome and after:
a€~Barbarigenesisa€”the formation of a€oebarbariana€n societies adjacent to more complex
societiesa€”and its consequencesa€!. A richer and potentially more powerful player may lose out to
a poorer player, because the opportunity cost of fighting is greater for the formera€! a
wealth-power tnismatcha€\. In a model of historical dynamics, a wealth-power mismatch
generates a long-lasting decline in social complexity, sweeping from more to less developed
regions, until wealth and power come to be more closely aligned. This article reviews how well this
model fits the historical record of late Antiquity and the early Middle Agesa€!
Don Moynihan: Elon Musk would like to sell you a used conspiracy theory: a€~Musk called Unsworth a
a€oepedo guya€Q on twitter to his then 20 million followers, repeated the claims after deleting the
original tweet, and told a reporter that Unsworth was a a€oechild rapist.a€D Musk ultimately won a
defamation case by claiming his accusation was not meant to be taken literally. But the incident
was revealing of Muska€l. Musk wanted to insert himself as
the heroa€!. When his actions were mocked, he lashed outa€l. Angry at the public criticism that
followed, he gravitated towards followers and grifters who applauded him, including a conman to
whom he paid $50,000a€!. Musk gravitates towards the applausea€!. We are starting to see
consequences for Twitter itselfa€!
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