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CreatePDF_85158245_1 (1).txt
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Language-Path: Arbwyth->Trade 24->Cherguelen->Triskw
From: Twirlip of the Mists
Subject: Blighter Video thread
Keywords: Hexapodia as the key insight
Distribution: Threat of the Blight
Approved: yes
Date: 8.68 days since Fall of Relay
I haven't had a chance to see the famous video from
Straumli Realm, except as an evocation. (My only
gateway onto the Net is very expensive.) Is it true
that humans have six legs? I wasn't sure from the
Pre-Note:
One thing we did not get into was the relationship between the claps of FTX and the associated
fraud and a€oeEffective Altruisma€Da€’’Effective Altruism not so much as a philosophy, but rather
as a doctrine preached by a life-coach.
If you want to have the highest chance of becoming rich, you make your bets as if you had a
logarithmic utility function: if the downside to a bet cuts your wealth in half, you will not
accept the bet unless the upside more than doubles your wealth. Accepting bets more risky than
those that satisfy this Kelly Criterion, even though the gain exceeds the loss, will ultimately
make you bankrupt and out of the game with very high probability and absolutely, filthy rich
with very low probability.
Effective Altruism tells you not only that you can but that you are under the strongest moral
obligation to make such riskier-than-Kelly positive expected-value bets. The question, then, is
what you do when the overwhelmingly likely bankruptcy takes place. And then the answer is often:
the customers money was just sitting there, so we can borrow it to successfully gamble for
resurrection, and then pay it back soon.
Noah, however, is more cynical than I. He thinks there is a moderate chance that SBF, CE, and
company are still very rich dudes indeeda€!
Share
Kev Insights:
1. Future hypothetical Web3 good, perhaps, if there ever is a use casea€!
2. Web3 as currently existing not gooda€”a fraud opportunity and a strongly negative-sum arena for
grifters and loosely-wrapped gamblersa€!
3. Being a greater fool and buying cryptoa€”not gooda€!
4. SBF & CE & company may well still be very rich dudesa€!
5. Trust Vitalik Buterin, probably a€’’but perhaps Noah is himself subject to affinity frauda€!
6. Hexapodia!
Share Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
References:
(Best to read these in order!)
• Tracy Alloway & al.’. Transcript: Sam Bankman-Fried and Matt Levine on How to Make Money in
Cryptoa€\
• Sam Trabucco (from April 2021): a€~Two years ago, Alameda maintained pretty strict delta
neutralitya€\
• Adam Fisher: Sam Bankman-Fried Has a Savior Complexa€ "And Maybe You Should Too
• Adam Cochrane: This was a crime plain and simplea€\
• Tyler Cowen: A simple point about existential risk
• Matt Levine: FTX's Balance Sheet Was Bad...
• Byrne Hobart: Money, Credit, Trust, and FTXd€\
• @0xfbifemboy: What Happened at Alameda Researcha€\
• Patrick Wyman: The Verge: Renaissance, Reformation, & 40 Years That Shook the Worlda€\
+, of course:
• Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep <https://archive .org/details/fireupondeepOOving_ 0/mode/1 up>
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