A global timekeeping problem postponed by global warming

[HanDeBruijn]

Abstract

The historical association of time with the rotation of Earth has meant that Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) closely follows this rotation. Because the rotation rate is not constant, UTC contains discontinuities (leap seconds), which complicates its use in computer networks. Since 1972, all UTC discontinuities have required that a leap second be added. Here we show that increased melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica, measured by satellite gravity, has decreased the angular velocity of Earth more rapidly than before. Removing this effect from the observed angular velocity shows that since 1972, the angular velocity of the liquid core of Earth has been decreasing at a constant rate that has steadily increased the angular velocity of the rest of the Earth. Extrapolating the trends for the core and other relevant phenomena to predict future Earth orientation shows that UTC as now defined will require a negative discontinuity by 2029. This will pose an unprecedented problem for computer network timing and may require changes in UTC to be made earlier than is planned. If polar ice melting had not recently accelerated, this problem would occur 3 years earlier: global warming is already affecting global timekeeping.

Related: Earth Just Had Its Shortest Day on Record, Thanks to a 'Wobble'

[HanDeBruijn]

There are two things here: (1) global warming, melting of ice and rise of the sea level, (2) something that causes The Earth's Rotation Retardation.

So what we have is a question of cause and effect: is (1) the cause of (2) / is (2) an effect of (1) ?

Referring to the book Origin of Inertia by Amitabha Ghosh, we read on page 83 the following. Considerable work has been done on the subject of the earth's rotation retardation , and the publications are too many to be exhaustively listed here. Okay, can we conclude therefore that the above theory by Duncan Agnew is only one of those many?

The work by Amitabha anyway shows that there is not a shred of evidence that there would be A global timekeeping problem postponed by global warming. My own attempts concerning The Earth's Rotation Retardation have been published in this forum and on my website and lead to the same conclusion. The Update in his reply is relevant too.

[ExpEarth]

I don't see where I distorted anything. I'm just pointing out a logical inconsistency.

[HanDeBruijn]

Maybe our mutual misunderstanding can be resolved by assuming that @ExpEarth does not distrust General Relativity, more specifically Hubble's law: The motion of astronomical objects due solely to this [cosmic] expansion is known as the Hubble flow. It is described by the equation $v=H_0 D$ . Where $D=r_0\approx$ current earth-moon distance and $H_0=$ Hubble parameter. This results in the same outcome as with the Variable Mass Theory. Of course it does, because the latter is a "conformal" transformation of the former: $\Delta r = v.t = H_0 r_0 t\approx 2.89$ centimeters / year .

The correct way to look at this in my view is that the Moon and the Earth did have close contact in the past, not 1.5 billion years ago but rather 4.5 billion years ago. This is when the Moon was formed by a process of fission from the Earth [ .. ]

It might be claimed that the VMT can calculate with Narlikar's law $(1+H_0\tau/2)^2=m/m_0$ and $\tau=-A=$ where $A=$ age of the event:

# 1 megaParsec
Mpc := 3.08567758*10^22;
# Hubble parameter
H_0 := 73.4*1000/Mpc;
# Year in seconds
year := 31556926;
# Earth-Moon distance (m)
r_0 := 384.4*10^6;
# Age of Earth(-Moon system)
A := 4.543*10^9*year;
# Distance at that time
r := r_0*(1-H_0*A/2)^2;

Giving $r(A) \approx 264,500$ km, which is not compatible with a process of fission from the Earth.
However, we have seen that, in another frame of reference, the distance between earth and moon is invariable. And what is the physical meaning of a result that depends on distance measurement with redshifted light. At that time there were no humans available in place to carry out such experiments.

[ExpEarth]

Han, I wonder if you could try putting into words, with no equations at all, why you suppose that the Variable Mass Theory can have a Earth-Moon distance that is either increasing or unchanged. I can get no qualitative feel whatsoever from your equations.

[HanDeBruijn]

@ExpEarth . Modern physics is characterized by relativity and quantum mechanics. The former comes with Frames of reference, the latter comes with the Uncertainty principle. Implication of both is that physics as observed, grossly speaking, depends on the observer.
This effect is enlarged by the Variable Mass Theory. And it becomes more and more disturbing with physics on cosmological distances and at cosmological timespans. Matt, to be honest, I can hardly understand my own theory for those far away regions of space and time.
This is my last sentence in a webpage called Suport by Hoyle: Physics is part of our technology. Nothing of its "truth" can be considered as being independent of that technology, as it has been made up by us humans. In the end, We are part of Nature ourselves, whether we appreciate it or not.

[ExpEarth]

Well, all I can say is good luck with your model, Han. You are obviously deeply attached to it. It's hard for any of us to walk away from our most cherished models. For me your model seems not to work very well, or at least does not provide explanations simpler than the mainstream ones. The remote regions of space and time are precisely the ones where your VMT should provide clear, alternative interpretations. It should be troubling for you that the JWST is showing remote galaxies to be more or less similar to nearby ones.