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ALRI calibration: deaths were too high, as original calibration was done without HIV in the simulation #1184

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tbhallett opened this issue Nov 9, 2023 · 0 comments · May be fixed by #1191
Open

ALRI calibration: deaths were too high, as original calibration was done without HIV in the simulation #1184

tbhallett opened this issue Nov 9, 2023 · 0 comments · May be fixed by #1191

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@tbhallett
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tbhallett commented Nov 9, 2023 •
edited

The calibration of ALRI incidence is excellent:

image image image image

And calibration of deaths is quite good

With HIV prevalence (untreated) = 0.00

image

...but is a bit high. There is a tuning parameter called scaler_on_risk_of_death which is labelled as being "For Calibration". Its currently value is 0.75.

With an updated value of 0.5, a reasonable calibration is restored;:

image

Scale-run job-id: long_run_all_diseases-2023-11-09T223915Z

A PR can be raised to make that change.
@tbhallett tbhallett linked a pull request Nov 13, 2023 that will close this issue
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ALRI calibration UCL/TLOmodel
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@tbhallett