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*Last updated March 2, 2021

Rulers, Elections and Irregular Governance (REIGN)

The Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN) dataset is the most robust leader-month data capturing national electoral process and leadership change. As of April 2019, it contains over 130,000 unique leader-month observations. REIGN was originally created by Curtis Bell, and provides up-to-date coding for leadership characteristics and election scheduling/outcomes.

Key Outputs:

  • Political conditions in every sovereign state are updated monthly to the present. Coverage starts in January 1950.
  • Includes information about more than 2,300 individual leaders in 201 different countries
  • Provides new data about election announcements, delays, and outcomes
  • Includes information about current conditions and scheduled future events, making it ideal for event forecasting.

REIGN is updated montly and released pubicly on the first Tuesday of the month. Alongside the REIGN data, you will also find a link to the most current REIGN blog updates provided by One Earth Future.

ELection VIolence (ELVI) Events and Forecast

The ELection VIolence (ELVI) Events dataset is a new offering by the OEF forecasting team that builds upon the National Elections Across Democracy and Autocracy (NELDA) dataset and its election violence outcome indicators. We utilize a combination of publicly avaiable data and proprietary data to produce monthly forecasts for the risk of general election related violence in all confirmed and anticipated national election events covering both leadership elections and constitutional referendums. We will soon implement full country coverage for ELVI, including microstates and island nations.

Key Outputs:

  • Election violence indicators for general and government election related violence from January 1975 to 2020.
  • Election violence risk forecasts for all confirmed and anticipated national election events for 2021.
  • Electiion violence outcome indicators are updated monthly as elections are observed by the team.

Technical Blog and Political Analyses

OEF Forecasting hosts a medium blog called the Die is Forecast. This blog is dedicated to technical analyses and code vignettes regarding our REIGN data and CoupCast/ELVI forecasting projects. Feel free to check it out here if you interested in seeing how we use REIGN data to predict and understand the drivers of political violence and instability.