index.html

<!DOCTYPE html>
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
<head>

<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" />
<meta name="generator" content="pandoc" />



<title>ELection Violence Intelligence System (ELVIS)</title>

<meta property="og:title" content="ELection Violence Intelligence System (ELVIS)" />

<meta name='viewport' content='width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0, user-scalable=no' />

<link rel="icon" href="data:image/x-icon;" type="image/x-icon">


<script type="text/javascript">
window.FlexDashboardComponents = [];
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<script id="flexdashboard-navbar" type="application/json">
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</script>
<script src="site_libs/jquery-1.12.4/jquery.min.js"></script>
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1" />
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<script src="site_libs/font-awesome-5.0.13/js/fontawesome-all.min.js"></script>
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<link href="site_libs/dt-core-1.10.16/css/jquery.dataTables.min.css" rel="stylesheet" />
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<script src="site_libs/bootstrap-select-1.12.1/dist/js/bootstrap-select.min.js"></script>
<script src="site_libs/bsselect-binding-0.1.0/bsselect.js"></script>
<style type="text/css">

/*
 Dashboard CSS from Keen IO Dashboards
 (https://github.com/keen/dashboards)
*/

body {
  background: #f2f2f2;
  padding: 60px 0 0 8px; /* padding-top overridden by theme */
}

body hr {
  border-color: #d7d7d7;
  margin: 10px 0;
}

.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > li > a,
.navbar .navbar-brand {
  text-decoration: none;
}

.navbar-logo {
  margin-top: 1px;
}

.navbar-logo img {
  margin-right: 12px;
}

.navbar-author {
  margin-left: 10px;
  font-size: 15px;
}

.navbar .dropdown-menu .fa {
  min-width: 20px;
}

.navbar .dropdown-menu {
  min-width: 150px;
  max-height: 500px;
  overflow: auto;
}

.chart-wrapper,
.nav-tabs-custom,
.sbframe-commentary
{
  background: #fff;
  border: 1px solid #e2e2e2;
  border-radius: 3px;
  margin-bottom: 8px;
  margin-right: 8px;
}

.chart-title {
  border-bottom: 1px solid #d7d7d7;
  color: #666;
  font-size: 14px;
  font-weight: 300;
  padding: 7px 10px 4px;
}

.chart-wrapper .chart-title:empty {
  display: none;
}

.chart-wrapper .chart-stage {
  overflow: hidden;
  padding: 5px 10px;
  position: relative;
}

.chart-wrapper .chart-notes {
  background: #fbfbfb;
  border-top: 1px solid #e2e2e2;
  color: #808080;
  font-size: 12px;
  padding: 8px 10px 5px;
}

/*
 CSS for handling flexbox layout
*/

#dashboard-container {
  visibility: hidden;
}

.tab-content>.dashboard-page-wrapper.active {
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
}

.dashboard-page-wrapper {
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
  -webkit-box-orient: vertical;
  -webkit-box-direction: normal;
  -webkit-flex-direction: column;
      -ms-flex-direction: column;
          flex-direction: column;
}

.dashboard-row-orientation {
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
  -webkit-box-orient: vertical;
  -webkit-box-direction: normal;
  -webkit-flex-direction: column;
      -ms-flex-direction: column;
          flex-direction: column;
}

.dashboard-row {
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
  -webkit-box-orient: horizontal;
  -webkit-box-direction: normal;
  -webkit-flex-direction: row;
      -ms-flex-direction: row;
          flex-direction: row;
}

.dashboard-row-flex {
  -webkit-box-flex: 1;
  -webkit-flex: 1;
      -ms-flex: 1;
          flex: 1;
}

.dashboard-column-orientation {
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
  -webkit-box-orient: horizontal;
  -webkit-box-direction: normal;
  -webkit-flex-direction: row;
      -ms-flex-direction: row;
          flex-direction: row;
}

.dashboard-column {
  -webkit-box-flex: 1;
  -webkit-flex: 1;
      -ms-flex: 1;
          flex: 1;
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
  -webkit-box-orient: vertical;
  -webkit-box-direction: normal;
  -webkit-flex-direction: column;
      -ms-flex-direction: column;
          flex-direction: column;
}

.chart-wrapper-flex {
  -webkit-box-flex: 1;
  -webkit-flex: 1;
      -ms-flex: 1;
          flex: 1;
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
  -webkit-box-orient: vertical;
  -webkit-box-direction: normal;
  -webkit-flex-direction: column;
      -ms-flex-direction: column;
          flex-direction: column;
}

.chart-stage-flex {
  -webkit-box-flex: 1;
  -webkit-flex: 1;
      -ms-flex: 1;
          flex: 1;
  position: relative;
}

.chart-shim {
  position: absolute;
  left: 8px; top: 8px; right: 8px; bottom: 8px;
}

.no-padding .chart-shim {
  left: 0; top: 0; right: 0; bottom: 0;
}

.flowing-content-shim {
  overflow: auto;
  left: 0; top: 0; right: 0; bottom: 0;
  padding-left: 8px;
  padding-right: 8px;
}

.flowing-content-container {
  padding-top: 8px;
  padding-bottom: 8px;
}

.chart-stage .table-bordered {
  border: none;
}

.chart-stage .table-bordered > tbody > tr > th,
.chart-stage .table-bordered > tfoot > tr > th,
.chart-stage .table-bordered > tbody > tr > td,
.chart-stage .table-bordered > tfoot > tr > td {
  border: none;
}

.chart-stage .table-bordered > tbody > tr > td {
  border-top: 1px solid #dddddd;
}

.chart-stage .table-bordered > thead > tr > th {
  border: none;
  border-bottom: 2px solid #dddddd;
}

.bootstrap-table table>thead {
  background-color: #fff;
}

.bootstrap-table table.data,
.bootstrap-table table.shiny-table {
  width: inherit !important;
}

.bootstrap-table table.data>tbody>tr>th,
.bootstrap-table table.shiny-table>tbody>tr>th {
  border-top: none;
  border-bottom: 2px solid #dddddd;
  padding: 5px;
}

.bootstrap-table .data td[align=right] {
  font-family: inherit;
}

.chart-wrapper form {
  padding-left: 5px;
  padding-right: 5px;
}

.shiny-input-container label {
  font-weight: normal;
}

.chart-stage .html-widget {
  width: 100% !important;
  height: 100% !important;
}

.chart-stage .html-widget-static-bound {
  width: 100% !important;
  height: 100% !important;
}

.chart-stage .shiny-bound-output {
  width: 100% !important;
  height: 100% !important;
}

/* Omit display of empty paragraphs */

.chart-shim>p:empty {
  display: none;
}

.chart-stage>p:empty {
  display: none;
}

/* Omit display of special knitr options div*/

.chart-stage .knitr-options {
  display: none;
}

/* Automatically resizing images */

.image-container {
  position: absolute;
  top: 0;
  left: 0;
  right: 0;
  bottom: 0;
  margin: 0;
}

.image-container img {
  opacity: 0;
  overflow: hidden;
}

/* Value box */

.value-box {
  border-radius: 2px;
  position: relative;
  display: block;
  margin-right: 8px;
  margin-bottom: 8px;
  box-shadow: 0 1px 1px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);
}

.value-box > .inner {
  padding: 10px;
  padding-left: 20px;
  padding-right: 20px;
}

.value-box .value {
  font-size: 38px;
  font-weight: bold;
  margin: 0 0 3px 0;
  white-space: nowrap;
  padding: 0;
}

.value-box .caption {
  font-size: 15px;
}
.value-box .caption > small {
  display: block;
  font-size: 13px;
  margin-top: 5px;
}

.value-box .icon i {
  position: absolute;
  top: 15px;
  right: 15px;
  font-size: 80px;
  color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.15);
}

.linked-value:hover {
  cursor: pointer;
}

.value-box.linked-value:hover {
  box-shadow: 0 2px 2px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);
}

/* STORYBOARD */

.storyboard-nav button {
  background: transparent;
  border: 0;
  opacity: .3;
  outline: none;
  padding: 0;
}

.storyboard-nav button:hover,
.storyboard-nav button:hover {
  opacity: .5;
}

.storyboard-nav button:disabled,
.storyboard-nav button:disabled {
  opacity: .1;
}

.storyboard-nav .sbnext,
.storyboard-nav .sbprev {
  float: left;
  width: 2%;
  height: 120px;
  font-size: 50px;
}

.storyboard-nav .sbprev {
  text-align: left;
  width: 2%;
}

.storyboard-nav .sbnext {
  float: right;
  text-align: right;
  margin-right: 8px;
}

.storyboard-nav .sbframelist {
  margin: 0 auto;
  width: 94%;
  height: 120px;
  overflow: hidden;
  text-shadow: none;
  margin-bottom: 8px;
}

.storyboard-nav .sbframelist ul {
  list-style: none;
  margin: 0;
  padding: 0;
  height: 100%;
}

.storyboard-nav .sbframelist ul li {
  float: left;
  width: 270px;
  height: 100%;
  padding: 10px 10px 10px 10px;
  margin-right: 8px;
  background: #fff;
  border: 1px solid #e2e2e2;
  border-radius: 3px;
  color: #3a3c47;
  text-align: left;
  font-size: 14px;
  cursor: pointer;
}

.storyboard-nav .sbframelist ul li:last-child {
  margin-right: 0px;
}

.storyboard-nav .sbframelist ul li.active {
  color: #fff;
  background: #B8B8B8;
}

.sbframe-commentary {
  width: 300px;
  background: #fbfbfb;
  font-size: 14px;
}

.sbframe-commentary ul {
  padding-left: 22px;
}

.sbframe.active {
  display: flex;
}

.sbframe:not(.active) {
  display: none;
}

/* NAV TABS */

.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs {
  margin: 0;
  border-bottom: 1px solid #d7d7d7;
  color: #666;
  font-size: 14px;
  font-weight: 300;
  border-top-right-radius: 3px;
  border-top-left-radius: 3px;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li {
  border-top: 3px solid transparent;
  margin-bottom: -1px;
  margin-right: 5px;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li > a,
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li > a:active {
  color: #666;
  font-weight: 300;
  font-size: 14px;
  border-radius: 0;
  padding: 3px 10px 5px;
  text-transform: none;
}

.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li:not(.active) > a {
  border-bottom-color: transparent;
}

.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li > a.text-muted {
  color: #999;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li > a,
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li > a:hover {
  background: transparent;
  margin: 0;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li > a:hover {
  color: #999;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li:not(.active) > a:hover,
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li:not(.active) > a:focus,
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li:not(.active) > a:active {
  border-color: transparent;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.active {
  border-top-color: #3c8dbc;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.active > a,
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.active:hover > a {
  background-color: #fff;
  color: #666;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.active > a {
  border-top-color: transparent;
  border-left-color: #d7d7d7;
  border-right-color: #d7d7d7;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li:first-of-type {
  margin-left: 0;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li:first-of-type.active > a {
  border-left-color: transparent;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs.pull-right {
  float: none !important;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs.pull-right > li {
  float: right;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs.pull-right > li:first-of-type {
  margin-right: 0;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs.pull-right > li:first-of-type > a {
  border-left-width: 1px;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs.pull-right > li:first-of-type.active > a {
  border-left-color: #d7d7d7;
  border-right-color: transparent;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.header {
  line-height: 35px;
  padding: 0 10px;
  font-size: 20px;
  color: #666;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.header > .fa,
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.header > .glyphicon,
.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.header > .ion {
  margin-right: 5px;
}
.nav-tabs-custom > .tab-content {
  background: #fff;
  padding: 0;
  border-bottom-right-radius: 3px;
  border-bottom-left-radius: 3px;
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
}

.nav-tabs-custom > .tab-content > .chart-wrapper {
  background: #fff;
  border: none;
  margin: 0;
}


.nav-tabs-custom > .tab-content > .active {
  display: -webkit-box;
  display: -webkit-flex;
  display: -ms-flexbox;
  display: flex;
}

.nav-tabs-custom .dropdown.open > a:active,
.nav-tabs-custom .dropdown.open > a:focus {
  background: transparent;
  color: #999;
}


@media (max-width: 767px) {
  .value-box {
    text-align: center;
    margin-right: 8px;
  }
  .value-box .icon {
    display: none;
  }
}

/* Fixed position sidebar */

.section.sidebar {
  position: fixed;
  top: 51px; /* overridden by theme */
  left: 0;
  bottom: 0;
  border-right: 1px solid #e2e2e2;
  background-color: white; /* overridden by theme */
  padding-left: 10px;
  padding-right: 10px;
  visibility: hidden;
  overflow: auto;
}

.section.sidebar form p:first-child {
  margin-top: 10px;
}

/* Embedded source code */

#flexdashboard-source-code {
  display: none;
}

.featherlight-content #flexdashboard-source-code {
  display: inline-block;
}

.featherlight-content {
  width: 80%;
  max-width: 800px;
  padding: 0 !important;
  border-bottom: none !important;
}

.featherlight:last-of-type {
  background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.7);
}

.featherlight-inner {
  width: 100%;
}

.featherlight-content pre {
  margin: 0;
  border: 0;
  background: #fff;
  font-size: 12px;
}

.unselectable {
  -ms-user-select: none;
  -webkit-user-select: none;
  -khtml-user-select: none;
  -moz-user-select: -moz-none;
  -o-user-select: none;
  user-select: none;
}

#flexdashboard-source-code code {
  -ms-user-select: text;
  -webkit-user-select: text;
  -khtml-user-select: text;
  -moz-user-select: text;
  -o-user-select: text;
  user-select: text;
}

/* DataTables Tweaks */

.dataTables_filter input[type="search"] {
  -webkit-appearance: searchfield;
  outline: none;
}

.dataTables_wrapper.no-footer
.dataTables_info {
  padding-top: 0;
}


table.dataTable thead th {
  border-bottom: 1px solid #d7d7d7;
}

.dataTables_wrapper.no-footer .dataTables_scrollBody {
  border-bottom: 1px solid #d7d7d7;
}

/* Mobile phone only CSS */

.desktop-layout div.section.mobile {
  display: none;
}

.mobile-layout div.section.no-mobile {
  display: none;
}

.mobile-figure {
  display: none;
}




.navbar-inverse {
  background-color: #f8f8f8;
  border-color: #e7e7e7;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-brand {
  color: #777;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-brand:hover,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-brand:focus {
  color: #5e5e5e;
  background-color: transparent;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-text {
  color: #777;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > li > a {
  color: #777;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > li > a:hover,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > li > a:focus {
  color: #333;
  background-color: transparent;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .active > a,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .active > a:hover,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .active > a:focus {
  color: #555;
  background-color: #e7e7e7;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .disabled > a,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .disabled > a:hover,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .disabled > a:focus {
  color: #ccc;
  background-color: transparent;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-toggle {
  border-color: #ddd;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-toggle:hover,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-toggle:focus {
  background-color: #ddd;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-toggle .icon-bar {
  background-color: #888;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-collapse,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-form {
  border-color: #e7e7e7;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .open > a,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .open > a:hover,
.navbar-inverse .navbar-nav > .open > a:focus {
  color: #555;
  background-color: #e7e7e7;
}
@media (max-width: 767px) {
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > li > a {
    color: #777;
  }
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > li > a:hover,
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > li > a:focus {
    color: #333;
    background-color: transparent;
  }
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > .active > a,
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > .active > a:hover,
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > .active > a:focus {
    color: #555;
    background-color: #e7e7e7;
  }
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > .disabled > a,
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > .disabled > a:hover,
  .navbar-inverse .navbar-nav .open .dropdown-menu > .disabled > a:focus {
    color: #ccc;
    background-color: transparent;
  }
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-link {
  color: #777;
}
.navbar-inverse .navbar-link:hover {
  color: #333;
}
.navbar-inverse .btn-link {
  color: #777;
}
.navbar-inverse .btn-link:hover,
.navbar-inverse .btn-link:focus {
  color: #333;
}
.navbar-inverse .btn-link[disabled]:hover,
fieldset[disabled] .navbar-inverse .btn-link:hover,
.navbar-inverse .btn-link[disabled]:focus,
fieldset[disabled] .navbar-inverse .btn-link:focus {
  color: #ccc;
}



body {
  padding-top: 60px;
  background: rgba(0,0,0,0.015);
}

.section.sidebar {
  top: 51px;

  /* background-color: #f5f5f5; */
  background-color: #f8f8f8;
}

.value-box {
  color: inherit;
}

.bg-primary {
  background-color: rgba(51, 122, 183, 0.4);
}

.storyboard-nav .sbframelist ul li.active {
  background-color: rgba(51, 122, 183, 0.7);
}


.nav-tabs-custom > .nav-tabs > li.active {
  border-top-color: rgba(51, 122, 183, 0.4);
}

</style>



</head>

<body>

<div class="navbar navbar-inverse navbar-fixed-top" role="navigation">
<div class="container-fluid">
<div class="navbar-header">

<button id="navbar-button" type="button" class="navbar-toggle collapsed" data-toggle="collapse" data-target="#navbar">
<span class="icon-bar"></span>
<span class="icon-bar"></span>
<span class="icon-bar"></span>
</button>

<span class="navbar-logo pull-left">
  
</span>
<span class="navbar-brand">
  ELection Violence Intelligence System (ELVIS)
  <span class="navbar-author">
        </span>
</span>

</div>
<div id="navbar" class="navbar-collapse collapse">
<ul class="nav navbar-nav navbar-left">
</ul>
<ul class="nav navbar-nav navbar-right">
</ul>
</div><!--/.nav-collapse-->
</div><!--/.container-->
</div><!--/.navbar-->

<img class="mobile-figure" data-mobile-figure-id=fig1 src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.mb.png" />
<img class="mobile-figure" data-mobile-figure-id=fig2 src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-2.mb.png" />
<img class="mobile-figure" data-mobile-figure-id=fig4 src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.mb.png" />
<img class="mobile-figure" data-mobile-figure-id=fig5 src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.mb.png" />
<img class="mobile-figure" data-mobile-figure-id=fig6 src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.mb.png" />
<img class="mobile-figure" data-mobile-figure-id=fig7 src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.mb.png" />
<script type="text/javascript">


var FlexDashboard = (function () {

  // initialize options
  var _options = {};

  var FlexDashboard = function() {

    // default options
    _options = $.extend(_options, {
      theme: "cosmo",
      fillPage: false,
      orientation: 'columns',
      storyboard: false,
      defaultFigWidth: 576,
      defaultFigHeight: 461,
      defaultFigWidthMobile: 360,
      defaultFigHeightMobile: 461,
      isMobile: false,
      isPortrait: false
    });
  };

  function init(options) {

    // extend default options
    $.extend(true, _options, options);

    // add ids to sections that don't have them (pandoc won't assign ids
    // to e.g. sections with titles consisting of only chinese characters)
    var nextId = 1;
    $('.level1:not([id]),.level2:not([id]),.level3:not([id])').each(function() {
      $(this).attr('id', 'dashboard-' + nextId++);
    });

    // find navbar items
    var navbarItems = $('#flexdashboard-navbar');
    if (navbarItems.length)
      navbarItems = JSON.parse(navbarItems.html());
    addNavbarItems(navbarItems);

    // find the main dashboard container
    var dashboardContainer = $('#dashboard-container');

    // resolve mobile classes
    resolveMobileClasses(dashboardContainer);

    // one time global initialization for components
    componentsInit(dashboardContainer);

    // look for a global sidebar
    var globalSidebar = dashboardContainer.find(".section.level1.sidebar");
    if (globalSidebar.length > 0) {

      // global layout for fullscreen displays
      if (!isMobilePhone()) {

         // hoist it up to the top level
         globalSidebar.insertBefore(dashboardContainer);

         // lay it out (set width/positions)
         layoutSidebar(globalSidebar, dashboardContainer);

      // tuck sidebar into first page for mobile phones
      } else {

        // convert it into a level3 section
        globalSidebar.removeClass('sidebar');
        globalSidebar.removeClass('level1');
        globalSidebar.addClass('level3');
        var h1 = globalSidebar.children('h1');
        var h3 = $('<h3></h3>');
        h3.html(h1.html());
        h3.insertBefore(h1);
        h1.remove();

        // move it into the first page
        var page = dashboardContainer.find('.section.level1').first();
        if (page.length > 0)
          page.prepend(globalSidebar);
      }
    }

    // look for pages to layout
    var pages = $('div.section.level1');
    if (pages.length > 0) {

        // find the navbar and collapse on clicked
        var navbar = $('#navbar');
        navbar.on("click", "a[data-toggle!=dropdown]", null, function () {
           navbar.collapse('hide');
        });

        // envelop the dashboard container in a tab content div
        dashboardContainer.wrapInner('<div class="tab-content"></div>');

        pages.each(function(index) {

          // lay it out
          layoutDashboardPage($(this));

          // add it to the navbar
          addToNavbar($(this), index === 0);

        });

    } else {

      // remove the navbar and navbar button if we don't
      // have any navbuttons
      if (navbarItems.length === 0) {
        $('#navbar').remove();
        $('#navbar-button').remove();
      }

      // add the storyboard class if requested
      if (_options.storyboard)
        dashboardContainer.addClass('storyboard');

      // layout the entire page
      layoutDashboardPage(dashboardContainer);
    }

    // if we are in shiny we need to trigger a window resize event to
    // force correct layout of shiny-bound-output elements
    if (isShinyDoc())
      $(window).trigger('resize');

    // make main components visible
    $('.section.sidebar').css('visibility', 'visible');
    dashboardContainer.css('visibility', 'visible');

    // handle location hash
    handleLocationHash();

    // intialize prism highlighting
    initPrismHighlighting();

    // record mobile and orientation state then register a handler
    // to refresh if it changes
    _options.isMobile = isMobilePhone();
    _options.isPortrait = isPortrait();
    $(window).on('resize', function() {
      if (_options.isMobile !== isMobilePhone() ||
          _options.isPortrait !== isPortrait()) {
        window.location.reload();
      }
    });

    // trigger layoutcomplete event
    dashboardContainer.trigger('flexdashboard:layoutcomplete');
  }

  function resolveMobileClasses(dashboardContainer) {
     // add top level layout class
    dashboardContainer.addClass(isMobilePhone() ? 'mobile-layout' :
                                                  'desktop-layout');

    // look for .mobile sections and add .no-mobile to their peers
    var mobileSections = $('.section.mobile');
    mobileSections.each(function() {
       var id = $(this).attr('id');
       var nomobileId = id.replace(/-\d+$/, '');
       $('#' + nomobileId).addClass('no-mobile');
    });
  }

  function addNavbarItems(navbarItems) {

    var navbarLeft = $('ul.navbar-left');
    var navbarRight = $('ul.navbar-right');

    for (var i = 0; i<navbarItems.length; i++) {

      // get the item
      var item = navbarItems[i];

      // determine the container
      var container = null;
      if (item.align === "left")
        container = navbarLeft;
      else
        container = navbarRight;

      // navbar menu if we have multiple items
      if (item.items) {
        var menu = navbarMenu(null, item.icon, item.title, container);
        for (var j = 0; j<item.items.length; j++) {
          var subItem = item.items[j];
          var li = $('<li></li>');
          li.append(navbarLink(subItem.icon, subItem.title, subItem.href, subItem.target));
          menu.append(li);
        }
      } else {
        var li = $('<li></li>');
        li.append(navbarLink(item.icon, item.title, item.href, item.target));
        container.append(li);
      }
    }
  }

  // create or get a reference to an existing dropdown menu
  function navbarMenu(id, icon, title, container) {
    var existingMenu = [];
    if (id)
      existingMenu = container.children('#' + id);
    if (existingMenu.length > 0) {
      return existingMenu.children('ul');
    } else {
      var li = $('<li></li>');
      if (id)
        li.attr('id', id);
      li.addClass('dropdown');
      // auto add "Share" title on mobile if necessary
      if (!title && icon && (icon === "fa-share-alt") && isMobilePhone())
        title = "Share";
      if (title) {
        title = title + ' <span class="caret"></span>';
      }
      var a = navbarLink(icon, title, "#");
      a.addClass('dropdown-toggle');
      a.attr('data-toggle', 'dropdown');
      a.attr('role', 'button');
      a.attr('aria-expanded', 'false');
      li.append(a);
      var ul = $('<ul class="dropdown-menu"></ul>');
      ul.attr('role', 'menu');
      li.append(ul);
      container.append(li);
      return ul;
    }
  }

  function addToNavbar(page, active) {

    // capture the id and data-icon attribute (if any)
    var id = page.attr('id');
    var icon = page.attr('data-icon');
    var navmenu = page.attr('data-navmenu');

    // get hidden state (transfer this to navbar)
    var hidden = page.hasClass('hidden');
    page.removeClass('hidden');

    // sanitize the id for use with bootstrap tabs
    id = id.replace(/[.\/?&!#<>]/g, '').replace(/\s/g, '_');
    page.attr('id', id);

    // get the wrapper
    var wrapper = page.closest('.dashboard-page-wrapper');

    // move the id to the wrapper
    page.removeAttr('id');
    wrapper.attr('id', id);

    // add the tab-pane class to the wrapper
    wrapper.addClass('tab-pane');
    if (active)
      wrapper.addClass('active');

    // get a reference to the h1, discover it's id and title, then remove it
    var h1 = wrapper.find('h1').first();
    var title = h1.html();
    h1.remove();

    // create a navbar item
    var li = $('<li></li>');
    var a = navbarLink(icon, title, '#' + id);
    a.attr('data-toggle', 'tab');
    li.append(a);

    // add it to the navbar (or navbar menu if specified)
    var container = $('ul.navbar-left');
    if (navmenu) {
      var menuId = navmenu.replace(/\s+/g, '');
      var menu = navbarMenu(menuId, null, navmenu, container);
      menu.append(li);
    } else {
      container.append(li);
    }

    // hide it if requested
    if (hidden)
      li.addClass('hidden');
  }

  function navbarLink(icon, title, href, target) {

    var a = $('<a></a>');
    if (icon) {

      // get the name of the icon set and icon
      var dashPos = icon.indexOf("-");
      var iconSet = icon.substring(0, dashPos);
      var iconName = icon.substring(dashPos + 1);

      // create the icon
      var iconElement = $('<span class="' + iconSet + ' ' + icon + '"></span>');
      if (title)
        iconElement.css('margin-right', '7px');
      a.append(iconElement);
      // if href is null see if we can auto-generate based on icon (e.g. social)
      if (!href)
        maybeGenerateLinkFromIcon(iconName, a);
    }
    if (title)
      a.append(title);

    // add the href.
    if (href) {
      if (href === "source_embed") {
        a.attr('href', '#');
        a.attr('data-featherlight', "#flexdashboard-source-code");
        a.featherlight({
            beforeOpen: function(event){
              $('body').addClass('unselectable');
            },
            afterClose: function(event){
              $('body').removeClass('unselectable');
            }
        });
      } else {
        a.attr('href', href);
      }
    }

    // add the arget
    if (target)
      a.attr('target', target);

    return a;
  }

  // auto generate a link from an icon name (e.g. twitter) when possible
  function maybeGenerateLinkFromIcon(iconName, a) {

     var serviceLinks = {
      "twitter": "https://twitter.com/share?text=" + encodeURIComponent(document.title) + "&url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href),
      "facebook": "https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?s=100&p[url]="+encodeURIComponent(location.href),
      "google-plus": "https://plus.google.com/share?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href),
      "linkedin": "https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href) + "&title=" + encodeURIComponent(document.title),
      "pinterest": "https://pinterest.com/pin/create/link/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href) + "&description=" + encodeURIComponent(document.title)
    };

    var makeSocialLink = function(a, href) {
      a.attr('href', '#');
      a.on('click', function(e) {
        e.preventDefault();
        window.open(href);
      });
    };

    $.each(serviceLinks, function(key, value) {
      if (iconName.indexOf(key) !== -1)
        makeSocialLink(a, value);
    });
  }

  // layout a dashboard page
  function layoutDashboardPage(page) {

    // use a page wrapper so that free form content above the
    // dashboard appears at the top rather than the side (as it
    // would without the wrapper in a column orientation)
    var wrapper = $('<div class="dashboard-page-wrapper"></div>');
    page.wrap(wrapper);

    // if there are no level2 or level3 headers synthesize a level3
    // header to contain the (e.g. frame it, scroll container, etc.)
    var headers = page.find('h2,h3');
    if (headers.length === 0)
      page.wrapInner('<div class="section level3"></div>');

    // hoist up any content before level 2 or level 3 headers
    var children = page.children();
    children.each(function(index) {
      if ($(this).hasClass('level2') || $(this).hasClass('level3'))
        return false;
      $(this).insertBefore(page);
    });

    // determine orientation and fillPage behavior for distinct media
    var orientation, fillPage, storyboard;

    // media: mobile phone
    if (isMobilePhone()) {

      // if there is a sidebar we need to ensure it's content
      // is properly framed as an h3
      var sidebar = page.find('.section.sidebar');
      sidebar.removeClass('sidebar');
      sidebar.wrapInner('<div class="section level3"></div>');
      var h2 = sidebar.find('h2');
      var h3 = $('<h3></h3>');
      h3.html(h2.html());
      h3.insertBefore(h2);
      h2.remove();

      // wipeout h2 elements then enclose them in a single h2
      var level2 = page.find('div.section.level2');
      level2.each(function() {
        level2.children('h2').remove();
        level2.children().unwrap();
      });
      page.wrapInner('<div class="section level2"></div>');

      // substitute mobile images
      if (isPortrait()) {
        var mobileFigures = $('img.mobile-figure');
        mobileFigures.each(function() {
          // get the src (might be base64 encoded)
          var src = $(this).attr('src');

          // find it's peer
          var id = $(this).attr('data-mobile-figure-id');
          var img = $('img[data-figure-id=' + id + "]");
          img.attr('src', src)
             .attr('width', _options.defaultFigWidthMobile)
             .attr('height', _options.defaultFigHeightMobile);
        });
      }

      // hoist storyboard commentary into it's own section
      if (page.hasClass('storyboard')) {
        var commentaryHR = page.find('div.section.level3 hr');
        commentaryHR.each(function() {
          var commentary = $(this).nextAll().detach();
          var commentarySection = $('<div class="section level3"></div>');
          commentarySection.append(commentary);
          commentarySection.insertAfter($(this).closest('div.section.level3'));
          $(this).remove();
        });
      }

      // force a non full screen layout by columns
      orientation = _options.orientation = 'columns';
      fillPage = _options.fillPage = false;
      storyboard = _options.storyboard = false;

    // media: desktop
    } else {

      // determine orientation
      orientation = page.attr('data-orientation');
      if (orientation !== 'rows' && orientation != 'columns')
        orientation = _options.orientation;

      // determine storyboard mode
      storyboard = page.hasClass('storyboard');

      // fillPage based on options (force for storyboard)
      fillPage = _options.fillPage || storyboard;

      // handle sidebar
      var sidebar = page.find('.section.level2.sidebar');
      if (sidebar.length > 0)
        layoutSidebar(sidebar, page);
    }

    // give it and it's parent divs height: 100% if we are in fillPage mode
    if (fillPage) {
      page.addClass('vertical-layout-fill');
      page.css('height', '100%');
      page.parents('div').css('height', '100%');
    } else {
      page.addClass('vertical-layout-scroll');
    }

    // perform the layout
    if (storyboard)
      layoutPageAsStoryboard(page);
    else if (orientation === 'rows')
      layoutPageByRows(page, fillPage);
    else if (orientation === 'columns')
      layoutPageByColumns(page, fillPage);
  }

  function layoutSidebar(sidebar, content) {

    // get it out of the header hierarchy
    sidebar = sidebar.first();
    if (sidebar.hasClass('level1')) {
      sidebar.removeClass('level1');
      sidebar.children('h1').remove();
    } else if (sidebar.hasClass('level2')) {
      sidebar.removeClass('level2');
      sidebar.children('h2').remove();
    }

    // determine width
    var sidebarWidth = isTablet() ? 220 : 250;
    var dataWidth = parseInt(sidebar.attr('data-width'));
    if (dataWidth)
      sidebarWidth = dataWidth;

    // set the width and shift the page right to accomodate the sidebar
    sidebar.css('width', sidebarWidth + 'px');
    content.css('padding-left', sidebarWidth + 'px');

    // wrap it's contents in a form
    sidebar.wrapInner($('<form></form>'));
  }

  function layoutPageAsStoryboard(page) {

    // create storyboard navigation
    var nav = $('<div class="storyboard-nav"></div>');

    // add navigation buttons
    var prev = $('<button class="sbprev"><i class="fa fa-angle-left"></i></button>');
    nav.append(prev);
    var next= $('<button class="sbnext"><i class="fa fa-angle-right"></i></button>');
    nav.append(next);

    // add navigation frame
    var frameList = $('<div class="sbframelist"></div>');
    nav.append(frameList);
    var ul = $('<ul></ul>');
    frameList.append(ul);

     // find all the level3 sections (those are the storyboard frames)
    var frames = page.find('div.section.level3');
    frames.each(function() {

      // mark it
      $(this).addClass('sbframe');

      // divide it into chart content and (optional) commentary
      $(this).addClass('dashboard-column-orientation');

      // stuff the chart into it's own div w/ flex
      $(this).wrapInner('<div class="sbframe-component"></div>');
      setFlex($(this), 1);
      var frame = $(this).children('.sbframe-component');

      // extract the title from the h3
      var li = $('<li></li>');
      var h3 = frame.children('h3');
      li.html(h3.html());
      h3.remove();
      ul.append(li);

      // extract commentary
      var hr = frame.children('hr');
      if (hr.length) {
        var commentary = hr.nextAll().detach();
        hr.remove();
        var commentaryFrame = $('<div class="sbframe-commentary"></div>');
        commentaryFrame.addClass('flowing-content-shim');
        commentaryFrame.addClass('flowing-content-container');
        commentaryFrame.append(commentary);
        $(this).append(commentaryFrame);

        // look for a data-commentary-width attribute
        var commentaryWidth = $(this).attr('data-commentary-width');
        if (commentaryWidth)
          commentaryFrame.css('width', commentaryWidth + 'px');
      }

      // layout the chart (force flex)
      var result = layoutChart(frame, true);

      // ice the notes if there are none
      if (!result.notes)
        frame.find('.chart-notes').remove();

      // set flex on chart
      setFlex(frame, 1);
    });

    // create a div to hold all the frames
    var frameContent = $('<div class="sbframe-content"></div>');
    frameContent.addClass('dashboard-row-orientation');
    frameContent.append(frames.detach());

    // row orientation to stack nav and frame content
    page.addClass('dashboard-row-orientation');
    page.append(nav);
    page.append(frameContent);
    setFlex(frameContent, 1);

    // initialize sly
    var sly = new Sly(frameList, {
    		horizontal: true,
    		itemNav: 'basic',
    		smart: true,
    		activateOn: 'click',
    		startAt: 0,
    		scrollBy: 1,
    		activatePageOn: 'click',
    		speed: 200,
    		moveBy: 600,
    		dragHandle: true,
    		dynamicHandle: true,
    		clickBar: true,
    		keyboardNavBy: 'items',
    		next: next,
    		prev: prev
    	}).init();

    // make first frame active
    frames.removeClass('active');
    frames.first().addClass('active');

    // subscribe to frame changed events
    sly.on('active', function (eventName, itemIndex) {
      frames.removeClass('active');
      frames.eq(itemIndex).addClass('active')
                          .trigger('shown');
    });
  }

  function layoutPageByRows(page, fillPage) {

    // row orientation
    page.addClass('dashboard-row-orientation');

    // find all the level2 sections (those are the rows)
    var rows = page.find('div.section.level2');

    // if there are no level2 sections then treat the
    // entire page as if it's a level 2 section
    if (rows.length === 0) {
      page.wrapInner('<div class="section level2"></div>');
      rows = page.find('div.section.level2');
    }

    rows.each(function () {

      // flags
      var haveNotes = false;
      var haveFlexHeight = true;

      // remove the h2
      $(this).children('h2').remove();

      // check for a tabset
      var isTabset = $(this).hasClass('tabset');
      if (isTabset)
        layoutTabset($(this));

      // give it row layout semantics if it's not a tabset
      if (!isTabset)
        $(this).addClass('dashboard-row');

      // find all of the level 3 subheads
      var columns = $(this).find('div.section.level3');

      // determine figureSizes sizes
      var figureSizes = chartFigureSizes(columns);

      // fixup the columns
      columns.each(function(index) {

        // layout the chart (force flex if we are in a tabset)
        var result = layoutChart($(this), isTabset);

        // update flexHeight state
        if (!result.flex)
          haveFlexHeight = false;

        // update state
        if (result.notes)
          haveNotes = true;

        // set the column flex based on the figure width
        // (value boxes will just get the default figure width)
        var chartWidth = figureSizes[index].width;
        setFlex($(this), chartWidth + ' ' + chartWidth + ' 0px');

      });

      // remove empty chart note divs
      if (isTabset)
        $(this).find('.chart-notes').filter(function() {
            return $(this).html() === "&nbsp;";
        }).remove();
      if (!haveNotes)
        $(this).find('.chart-notes').remove();

       // make it a flexbox row
      if (haveFlexHeight)
        $(this).addClass('dashboard-row-flex');

      // now we can set the height on all the wrappers (based on maximum
      // figure height + room for title and notes, or data-height on the
      // container if specified). However, don't do this if there is
      // no flex on any of the constituent columns
      var flexHeight = null;
      var dataHeight = parseInt($(this).attr('data-height'));
      if (dataHeight)
        flexHeight = adjustedHeight(dataHeight, columns.first());
      else if (haveFlexHeight)
        flexHeight = maxChartHeight(figureSizes, columns);
      if (flexHeight) {
        if (fillPage)
          setFlex($(this), flexHeight + ' ' + flexHeight + ' 0px');
        else {
          $(this).css('height', flexHeight + 'px');
          setFlex($(this), '0 0 ' + flexHeight + 'px');
        }
      }

    });
  }

  function layoutPageByColumns(page, fillPage) {

    // column orientation
    page.addClass('dashboard-column-orientation');

    // find all the level2 sections (those are the columns)
    var columns = page.find('div.section.level2');

    // if there are no level2 sections then treat the
    // entire page as if it's a level 2 section
    if (columns.length === 0) {
      page.wrapInner('<div class="section level2"></div>');
      columns = page.find('div.section.level2');
    }

    // layout each column
    columns.each(function (index) {

      // remove the h2
      $(this).children('h2').remove();

      // make it a flexbox column
      $(this).addClass('dashboard-column');

      // check for a tabset
      var isTabset = $(this).hasClass('tabset');
      if (isTabset)
        layoutTabset($(this));

      // find all the h3 elements
      var rows = $(this).find('div.section.level3');

      // get the figure sizes for the rows
      var figureSizes = chartFigureSizes(rows);

      // column flex is the max row width (or data-width if specified)
      var flexWidth;
      var dataWidth = parseInt($(this).attr('data-width'));
      if (dataWidth)
        flexWidth = dataWidth;
      else
        flexWidth = maxChartWidth(figureSizes);
      setFlex($(this), flexWidth + ' ' + flexWidth + ' 0px');

      // layout each chart
      rows.each(function(index) {

        // perform the layout
        var result = layoutChart($(this), false);

        // ice the notes if there are none
        if (!result.notes)
          $(this).find('.chart-notes').remove();

        // set flex height based on figHeight, then adjust
        if (result.flex) {
          var chartHeight = figureSizes[index].height;
          chartHeight = adjustedHeight(chartHeight, $(this));
          if (fillPage)
            setFlex($(this), chartHeight + ' ' + chartHeight + ' 0px');
          else {
            $(this).css('height', chartHeight + 'px');
            setFlex($(this), chartHeight + ' ' + chartHeight + ' ' + chartHeight + 'px');
          }
        }
      });
    });
  }

  function chartFigureSizes(charts) {

    // sizes
    var figureSizes = new Array(charts.length);

    // check each chart
    charts.each(function(index) {

      // start with default
      figureSizes[index] = {
        width: _options.defaultFigWidth,
        height: _options.defaultFigHeight
      };

      // look for data-height or data-width then knit options
      var dataWidth = parseInt($(this).attr('data-width'));
      var dataHeight = parseInt($(this).attr('data-height'));
      var knitrOptions = $(this).find('.knitr-options:first');
      var knitrWidth, knitrHeight;
      if (knitrOptions) {
        knitrWidth = parseInt(knitrOptions.attr('data-fig-width'));
        knitrHeight =  parseInt(knitrOptions.attr('data-fig-height'));
      }

      // width
      if (dataWidth)
        figureSizes[index].width = dataWidth;
      else if (knitrWidth)
        figureSizes[index].width = knitrWidth;

      // height
      if (dataHeight)
        figureSizes[index].height = dataHeight;
      else if (knitrHeight)
        figureSizes[index].height = knitrHeight;
    });

    // return sizes
    return figureSizes;
  }

  function maxChartHeight(figureSizes, charts) {

    // first compute the maximum height
    var maxHeight = _options.defaultFigHeight;
    for (var i = 0; i<figureSizes.length; i++)
      if (figureSizes[i].height > maxHeight)
        maxHeight = figureSizes[i].height;

    // now add offests for chart title and chart notes
    if (charts.length)
      maxHeight = adjustedHeight(maxHeight, charts.first());

    return maxHeight;
  }

  function adjustedHeight(height, chart) {
    if (chart.length > 0) {
      var chartTitle = chart.find('.chart-title');
      if (chartTitle.length)
        height += chartTitle.first().outerHeight();
      var chartNotes = chart.find('.chart-notes');
      if (chartNotes.length)
        height += chartNotes.first().outerHeight();
    }
    return height;
  }

  function maxChartWidth(figureSizes) {
    var maxWidth = _options.defaultFigWidth;
    for (var i = 0; i<figureSizes.length; i++)
      if (figureSizes[i].width > maxWidth)
        maxWidth = figureSizes[i].width;
    return maxWidth;
  }

  // layout a chart
  function layoutChart(chart, forceFlex) {

    // state to return
    var result = {
      notes: false,
      flex: false
    };

    // extract the title
    var title = extractTitle(chart);

    // find components that apply to this container
    var components = componentsFind(chart);

    // if it's a custom component then call it and return
    var customComponents = componentsCustom(components);
    if (customComponents.length) {
      componentsLayout(customComponents, title, chart);
      result.notes = false;
      result.flex = forceFlex || componentsFlex(customComponents);
      return result;
    }

    // put all the content in a chart wrapper div
    chart.addClass('chart-wrapper');
    chart.wrapInner('<div class="chart-stage"></div>');
    var chartContent = chart.children('.chart-stage');

    // flex the content if appropriate
    result.flex = forceFlex || componentsFlex(components);
    if (result.flex) {
      // add flex classes
      chart.addClass('chart-wrapper-flex');
      chartContent.addClass('chart-stage-flex');

      // additional shim to break out of flexbox sizing
      chartContent.wrapInner('<div class="chart-shim"></div>');
      chartContent = chartContent.children('.chart-shim');
    }

    // set custom data-padding attribute
    var pad = chart.attr('data-padding');
    if (pad) {
      if (pad === "0")
        chart.addClass('no-padding');
      else {
        pad = pad + 'px';
        chartContent.css('left', pad)
                    .css('top', pad)
                    .css('right', pad)
                    .css('bottom', pad)
      }
    }

    // call compoents
    componentsLayout(components, title, chartContent);

    // also activate components on shiny output
    findShinyOutput(chartContent).on('shiny:value',
      function(event) {
        var element = $(event.target);
        setTimeout(function() {

          // see if we opted out of flex based on our output (for shiny
          // we can't tell what type of output we have until after the
          // value is bound)
          var components = componentsFind(element);
          var flex = forceFlex || componentsFlex(components);
          if (!flex) {
            chart.css('height', "");
            setFlex(chart, "");
            chart.removeClass('chart-wrapper-flex');
            chartContent.removeClass('chart-stage-flex');
            chartContent.children().unwrap();
          }

          // perform layout
          componentsLayout(components, title, element.parent());
        }, 10);
      });

    // add the title
    var chartTitle = $('<div class="chart-title"></div>');
    chartTitle.html(title);
    chart.prepend(chartTitle);

    // add the notes section
    var chartNotes = $('<div class="chart-notes"></div>');
    chartNotes.html('&nbsp;');
    chart.append(chartNotes);

    // attempt to extract notes if we have a component
    if (components.length)
      result.notes = extractChartNotes(chartContent, chartNotes);

    // return result
    return result;
  }

  // build a tabset from a section div with the .tabset class
  function layoutTabset(tabset) {

    // check for fade option
    var fade = tabset.hasClass("tabset-fade");
    var navClass = "nav-tabs";

    // determine the heading level of the tabset and tabs
    var match = tabset.attr('class').match(/level(\d) /);
    if (match === null)
      return;
    var tabsetLevel = Number(match[1]);
    var tabLevel = tabsetLevel + 1;

    // find all subheadings immediately below
    var tabs = tabset.find("div.section.level" + tabLevel);
    if (!tabs.length)
      return;

    // create tablist and tab-content elements
    var tabList = $('<ul class="nav ' + navClass + '" role="tablist"></ul>');
    $(tabs[0]).before(tabList);
    var tabContent = $('<div class="tab-content"></div>');
    $(tabs[0]).before(tabContent);

    // build the tabset
    tabs.each(function(i) {

      // get the tab div
      var tab = $(tabs[i]);

      // get the id then sanitize it for use with bootstrap tabs
      var id = tab.attr('id');

      // sanitize the id for use with bootstrap tabs
      id = id.replace(/[.\/?&!#<>]/g, '').replace(/\s/g, '_');
      tab.attr('id', id);

      // get the heading element within it and grab it's text
      var heading = tab.find('h' + tabLevel + ':first');
      var headingText = heading.html();

      // build and append the tab list item
      var a = $('<a role="tab" data-toggle="tab">' + headingText + '</a>');
      a.attr('href', '#' + id);
      a.attr('aria-controls', id);
      var li = $('<li role="presentation"></li>');
      li.append(a);
      if (i === 0)
        li.attr('class', 'active');
      tabList.append(li);

      // set it's attributes
      tab.attr('role', 'tabpanel');
      tab.addClass('tab-pane');
      tab.addClass('tabbed-pane');
      tab.addClass('no-title');
      if (fade)
        tab.addClass('fade');
      if (i === 0) {
        tab.addClass('active');
        if (fade)
          tab.addClass('in');
      }

      // move it into the tab content div
      tab.detach().appendTo(tabContent);
    });

    // add nav-tabs-custom
    tabset.addClass('nav-tabs-custom');

    // internal layout is dashboard-column with tab-content flexing
    tabset.addClass('dashboard-column');
    setFlex(tabContent, 1);
  }

  // one time global initialization for components
  function componentsInit(dashboardContainer) {
    for (var i=0; i<window.FlexDashboardComponents.length; i++) {
      var component = window.FlexDashboardComponents[i];
      if (component.init)
        component.init(dashboardContainer);
    }
  }

  // find components that apply within a container
  function componentsFind(container) {

    // look for components
    var components = [];
    for (var i=0; i<window.FlexDashboardComponents.length; i++) {
      var component = window.FlexDashboardComponents[i];
      if (component.find(container).length)
        components.push(component);
    }

    // if there were none then use a special flowing content component
    // that just adds a scrollbar in fillPage mode
    if (components.length == 0) {
      components.push({
        find: function(container) {
          return container;
        },

        flex: function(fillPage) {
          return fillPage;
        },

        layout: function(title, container, element, fillPage) {
          if (fillPage) {
            container.addClass('flowing-content-shim');
            container.addClass('flowing-content-container');
          }
        }
      });
    }

    return components;
  }

  // if there is a custom component then pick it out
  function componentsCustom(components) {
    var customComponent = [];
    for (var i=0; i<components.length; i++)
      if (components[i].type === "custom") {
        customComponent.push(components[i]);
        break;
      }
    return customComponent;
  }

  // query all components for flex
  function componentsFlex(components) {

    // no components at all means no flex
    if (components.length === 0)
      return false;

    // otherwise query components (assume true unless we see false)
    var isMobile = isMobilePhone();
    for (var i=0; i<components.length; i++)
      if (components[i].flex && !components[i].flex(_options.fillPage))
        return false;
    return true;
  }

  // layout all components
  function componentsLayout(components, title, container) {
    var isMobile = isMobilePhone();
    for (var i=0; i<components.length; i++) {
      var element = components[i].find(container);
      if (components[i].layout) {
        // call layout (don't call other components if it returns false)
        var result = components[i].layout(title, container, element, _options.fillPage);
        if (result === false)
          return;
      }
    }
  }

  // get a reference to the h3, discover it's inner html, and remove it
  function extractTitle(container) {
    var h3 = container.children('h3').first();
    var title = '';
    if (!container.hasClass('no-title'))
      title = h3.html();
    h3.remove();
    return title;
  }

  // extract chart notes
  function extractChartNotes(chartContent, chartNotes) {
    // look for a terminating blockquote or image caption
    var blockquote = chartContent.children('blockquote:last-child');
    var caption = chartContent.children('div.image-container')
                              .children('p.caption');
    if (blockquote.length) {
      chartNotes.html(blockquote.children('p:first-child').html());
      blockquote.remove();
      return true;
    } else if (caption.length) {
      chartNotes.html(caption.html());
      caption.remove();
      return true;
    } else {
      return false;
    }
  }

  function findShinyOutput(chartContent) {
    return chartContent.find('.shiny-text-output, .shiny-html-output');
  }

  // safely detect rendering on a mobile phone
  function isMobilePhone() {
    try
    {
      return ! window.matchMedia("only screen and (min-width: 768px)").matches;
    }
    catch(e) {
      return false;
    }
  }

  function isFillPage() {
    return _options.fillPage;
  }

  // detect portrait mode
  function isPortrait() {
    return ($(window).width() < $(window).height());
  }

  // safely detect rendering on a tablet
  function isTablet() {
    try
    {
      return window.matchMedia("only screen and (min-width: 769px) and (max-width: 992px)").matches;
    }
    catch(e) {
      return false;
    }
  }

  // test whether this is a shiny doc
  function isShinyDoc() {
    return (typeof(window.Shiny) !== "undefined" && !!window.Shiny.outputBindings);
  }

  // set flex using vendor specific prefixes
  function setFlex(el, flex) {
    el.css('-webkit-box-flex', flex)
      .css('-webkit-flex', flex)
      .css('-ms-flex', flex)
      .css('flex', flex);
  }

  // support bookmarking of pages
  function handleLocationHash() {

    // restore tab/page from bookmark
    var hash = window.location.hash;
    if (hash.length > 0)
      $('ul.nav a[href="' + hash + '"]').tab('show');
    FlexDashboardUtils.manageActiveNavbarMenu();

    // navigate to a tab when the history changes
    window.addEventListener("popstate", function(e) {
      var hash = window.location.hash;
      var activeTab = $('ul.nav a[href="' + hash + '"]');
      if (activeTab.length) {
        activeTab.tab('show');
      } else {
        $('ul.nav a:first').tab('show');
      }
      FlexDashboardUtils.manageActiveNavbarMenu();
    });

    // add a hash to the URL when the user clicks on a tab/page
    $('.navbar-nav a[data-toggle="tab"]').on('click', function(e) {
      var baseUrl = FlexDashboardUtils.urlWithoutHash(window.location.href);
      var hash = FlexDashboardUtils.urlHash($(this).attr('href'));
      var href = baseUrl + hash;
      FlexDashboardUtils.setLocation(href);
    });

    // handle clicks of other links that should activate pages
    var navPages = $('ul.navbar-nav li a[data-toggle=tab]');
    navPages.each(function() {
      var href =  $(this).attr('href');
      var links = $('a[href="' + href + '"][data-toggle!=tab]');
      links.each(function() {
        $(this).on('click', function(e) {
          window.FlexDashboardUtils.showPage(href);
        });
      });
    });
  }

  // tweak Prism highlighting
  function initPrismHighlighting() {

    if (window.Prism) {
      Prism.languages.insertBefore('r', 'comment', {
        'heading': [
          {
            // title 1
        	  // =======

        	  // title 2
        	  // -------
        	  pattern: /\w+.*(?:\r?\n|\r)(?:====+|----+)/,
            alias: 'operator'
          },
          {
            // ### title 3
            pattern: /(^\s*)###[^#].+/m,
            lookbehind: true,
            alias: 'operator'
          }
        ]
      });

      // prism highlight
      Prism.highlightAll();
    }
  }


  // get theme color
  var themeColors = {
    bootstrap: {
      primary: "rgba(51, 122, 183, 0.4)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    },
    cerulean: {
      primary: "rgb(47, 164, 231)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    },
    journal: {
      primary: "rgba(235, 104, 100, 0.70)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    },
    flatly: {
      primary: "rgba(44, 62, 80, 0.70)",
      info: "rgba(52, 152, 219, 0.70)",
      success: "rgba(24, 188, 156, 0.70)",
      warning: "rgba(243, 156, 18, 0.70)",
      danger: "rgba(231, 76, 60, 0.70)"
    },
    readable: {
      primary: "rgba(69, 130, 236, 0.4)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    },
    spacelab: {
      primary: "rgba(68, 110, 155, 0.25)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    },
    united: {
      primary: "rgba(221, 72, 20, 0.30)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    },
    cosmo: {
      primary: "rgba(39, 128, 227, 0.7)",
      info: "rgba(153, 84, 187, 0.7)",
      success: "rgba(63, 182, 24, 0.7)",
      warning: "rgba(255, 117, 24, 0.7)",
      danger: "rgba(255, 0, 57, 0.7)"
    },
    lumen: {
      primary: "rgba(21, 140, 186, 0.70)",
      info: "rgba(117, 202, 235, 0.90)",
      success: "rgba(40, 182, 44, 0.70)",
      warning: "rgba(255, 133, 27, 0.70)",
      danger: "rgba(255, 65, 54, 0.70)"
    },
    paper: {
      primary: "rgba(33, 150, 243, 0.35)",
      info: "rgb(225, 190, 231)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(255, 224, 178)",
      danger: "rgb(249, 189, 187)"
    },
    sandstone: {
      primary: "rgba(50, 93, 136, 0.3)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    },
    simplex: {
      primary: "rgba(217, 35, 15, 0.25)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    },
    yeti: {
      primary: "rgba(0, 140, 186, 0.298039)",
      info: "rgb(217, 237, 247)",
      success: "rgb(223, 240, 216)",
      warning: "rgb(252, 248, 227)",
      danger: "rgb(242, 222, 222)"
    }
  }
  function themeColor(color) {
    return themeColors[_options.theme][color];
  }

  FlexDashboard.prototype = {
    constructor: FlexDashboard,
    init: init,
    isMobilePhone: isMobilePhone,
    isFillPage: isFillPage,
    themeColor: themeColor
  };

  return FlexDashboard;

})();

// utils
window.FlexDashboardUtils = {
  resizableImage: function(img) {
    var src = img.attr('src');
    var url = 'url("' + src + '")';
    img.parent().css('background', url)
                .css('background-size', 'contain')
                .css('background-repeat', 'no-repeat')
                .css('background-position', 'center')
                .addClass('image-container');
  },
  setLocation: function(href) {
    if (history && history.pushState) {
      history.pushState(null, null, href);
    } else {
      window.location.replace(href);
    }
    setTimeout(function() {
        window.scrollTo(0, 0);
    }, 10);
    this.manageActiveNavbarMenu();
  },
  showPage: function(href) {
    $('ul.navbar-nav li a[href="' + href + '"]').tab('show');
    var baseUrl = this.urlWithoutHash(window.location.href);
    var loc = baseUrl + href;
    this.setLocation(loc);
  },
  showLinkedValue: function(href) {
    // check for a page link
    if ($('ul.navbar-nav li a[data-toggle=tab][href="' + href + '"]').length > 0)
      this.showPage(href);
    else
      window.open(href);
  },
  urlWithoutHash: function(url) {
    var hashLoc = url.indexOf('#');
    if (hashLoc != -1)
      return url.substring(0, hashLoc);
    else
      return url;
  },
  urlHash: function(url) {
    var hashLoc = url.indexOf('#');
    if (hashLoc != -1)
      return url.substring(hashLoc);
    else
      return "";
  },
  manageActiveNavbarMenu: function () {
    // remove active from anyone currently active
    $('.navbar ul.nav').find('li').removeClass('active');
    // find the active tab
    var activeTab = $('.dashboard-page-wrapper.tab-pane.active');
    if (activeTab.length > 0) {
      var tabId = activeTab.attr('id');
      if (tabId)
        $(".navbar ul.nav a[href='#" + tabId + "']").parents('li').addClass('active');
    }
  }
};

window.FlexDashboard = new FlexDashboard();

// empty content
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({
  find: function(container) {
    if (container.find('p').length == 0)
      return container;
    else
      return $();
  }
})

// plot image
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({

  find: function(container) {
    return container.children('p')
                    .children('img:only-child');
  },

  layout: function(title, container, element, fillPage) {
    FlexDashboardUtils.resizableImage(element);
  }
});

// plot image (figure style)
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({

  find: function(container) {
    return container.children('div.figure').children('img');
  },

  layout: function(title, container, element, fillPage) {
    FlexDashboardUtils.resizableImage(element);
  }
});

// htmlwidget
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({

  init: function(dashboardContainer) {
    // trigger "shown" after initial layout to force static htmlwidgets
    // in runtime: shiny to be resized after the dom has been transformed
    dashboardContainer.on('flexdashboard:layoutcomplete', function(event) {
      setTimeout(function() {
        dashboardContainer.trigger('shown');
      }, 200);
    });
  },

  find: function(container) {
    return container.children('div[id^="htmlwidget-"],div.html-widget');
  }
});

// gauge
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({

  find: function(container) {
    return container.children('div.html-widget.gauge');
  },

  flex: function(fillPage) {
    return false;
  },

  layout: function(title, container, element, fillPage) {


  }

});

// shiny output
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({
  find: function(container) {
    return container.children('div[class^="shiny-"]');
  }
});

// datatables
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({
  find: function(container) {
    return container.find('.datatables');
  },
  flex: function(fillPage) {
    return fillPage;
  }
});

// bootstrap table
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({

  find: function(container) {
    var bsTable = container.find('table.table');
    if (bsTable.length !== 0)
      return bsTable;
    else
      return container.find('tr.header').parent('thead').parent('table');
  },

  flex: function(fillPage) {
    return fillPage;
  },

  layout: function(title, container, element, fillPage) {

    // alias variables
    var bsTable = element;

    // fixup xtable generated tables with a proper thead
    var headerRow = bsTable.find('tbody > tr:first-child > th').parent();
    if (headerRow.length > 0) {
      var thead = $('<thead></thead>');
      bsTable.prepend(thead);
      headerRow.detach().appendTo(thead);
    }

    // improve appearance
    container.addClass('bootstrap-table');

    // for fill page provide scrolling w/ sticky headers
    if (fillPage) {
      // force scrollbar on overflow
      container.addClass('flowing-content-shim');

      // stable table headers when scrolling
      bsTable.stickyTableHeaders({
        scrollableArea: container
      });
    }
  }
});

// embedded shiny app
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({

  find: function(container) {
    return container.find('iframe.shiny-frame');
  },

  flex: function(fillPage) {
    return fillPage;
  },

  layout: function(title, container, element, fillPage) {
    if (fillPage) {
      element.attr('height', '100%');
    } else {
      // provide default height if necessary
      var height = element.get(0).style.height;
      if (!height)
        height = element.attr('height');
      if (!height)
        element.attr('height', 500);
    }
  }
});

// shiny fillRow or fillCol
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({

  find: function(container) {
    return container.find('.flexfill-container');
  },

  flex: function(fillPage) {
    return fillPage;
  },

  layout: function(title, container, element, fillPage) {
    if (fillPage)
      element.css('height', '100%');
    else {
      // provide default height if necessary
      var height = element.get(0).style.height;
      if (height === "100%" || height === "auto" || height === "initial" ||
          height === "inherit" || !height) {
        element.css('height', 500);
      }
    }
  }
});

// valueBox
window.FlexDashboardComponents.push({

  type: "custom",

  find: function(container) {
    if (container.find('span.value-output, .shiny-valuebox-output').length)
      return container;
    else
      return $();
  },

  flex: function(fillPage) {
    return false;
  },

  layout: function(title, container, element, fillPage) {

    // alias variables
    var chartTitle = title;
    var valueBox = element;

    // add value-box class to container
    container.addClass('value-box');

    // value paragraph
    var value = $('<p class="value"></p>');

    // if we have shiny-text-output then just move it in
    var valueOutputSpan = [];
    var shinyOutput = valueBox.find('.shiny-valuebox-output').detach();
    if (shinyOutput.length) {
      valueBox.children().remove();
      shinyOutput.html("&mdash;");
      value.append(shinyOutput);
    } else {
      // extract the value (remove leading vector index)
      var chartValue = valueBox.text().trim();
      chartValue = chartValue.replace("[1] ", "");
      valueOutputSpan = valueBox.find('span.value-output').detach();
      valueBox.children().remove();
      value.text(chartValue);
    }

    // caption
    var caption = $('<p class="caption"></p>');
    caption.html(chartTitle);

    // build inner div for value box and add it
    var inner = $('<div class="inner"></div>');
    inner.append(value);
    inner.append(caption);
    valueBox.append(inner);

    // add icon if specified
    var icon = $('<div class="icon"><i></i></div>');
    valueBox.append(icon);
    function setIcon(chartIcon) {
      var iconLib = "";
      var components = chartIcon.split("-");
      if (components.length > 1)
        iconLib = components[0];
      icon.children('i').attr('class', iconLib + ' ' + chartIcon);
    }
    var chartIcon = valueBox.attr('data-icon');
    if (chartIcon)
      setIcon(chartIcon);

    // set color based on data-background if necessary
    var dataBackground = valueBox.attr('data-background');
    if (dataBackground)
      valueBox.css('background-color', bgColor);
    else {
      // default to bg-primary if no other background is specified
      if (!valueBox.hasClass('bg-primary') &&
          !valueBox.hasClass('bg-info') &&
          !valueBox.hasClass('bg-warning') &&
          !valueBox.hasClass('bg-success') &&
          !valueBox.hasClass('bg-danger')) {
        valueBox.addClass('bg-primary');
      }
    }

    // handle data attributes in valueOutputSpan
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<div id="sidebar" class="section level1 sidebar" data-width="200">
<h1>Sidebar</h1>
<p>For more information about ELVIS, One Earth Future, our data, and methodology, please see the <a href="#introduction">introduction</a>.</p>
<hr />
<p>For the latest forecasts as of <strong>2019-04-05 16:12:00</strong>, please see our <a href="#elections">monthly risk tables</a>. We also host a historical archive of elections <a href="#historical-data-archive">here</a></p>
<hr />
<p>For additional substantive insight into our models, please check out our <a href="#accuracy">historical accuracy</a>, our measurements of <a href="#variable-importance">predictor importance</a>, and our measurements of <a href="#variable-relationships">predictor relationships</a></p>
</div>
<div id="introduction" class="section level1" data-icon="fa-comment-o">
<h1>Introduction</h1>
<div id="column" class="section level2" data-width="550">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="what-is-elvis" class="section level3">
<h3>What is ELVIS?</h3>
<p>The ELection Violence Intelligence System (ELVIS) is an early warning approach to predicting the risk of election violence for every major national election across the globe. ELVIS provides regularly updated forecasts for each election in the coming month, alongside an annual risk table and an archived risk table that dates back to 2000. We utilize an ensemble machine learning ecosystem to produce (1) predictions, (2) predictor importance measurements, (3) prediction/outcome relationship visualizations, and (4) evaluations of predictive accuracy.</p>
<p>ELVIS was developed at the <a href="https://oneearthfuture.org/">One Earth Future Foundation</a> under the <a href="https://oefresearch.org/">research department</a> with the intent of providing both <strong>substantive</strong> and <strong>actionable</strong> information about the risk of election violence for upcoming elections.</p>
</div>
<div id="election-violence-trends" class="section level3 no-title">
<h3>Election Violence Trends</h3>
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</div>
<p><img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="864" data-figure-id=fig1 /></p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="column-1" class="section level2" data-width="450">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="how-we-make-predictions." class="section level3">
<h3>How we make predictions.</h3>
<p>Like our <a href="https://oefresearch.org/activities/coup-cast">CoupCast</a> project, we utilize original data alongside ensemble machine learning to forecast the risk of election violence. As a result, ELVIS contains three major components:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Data</strong>: We continue the use of coding rules used by the <a href="https://nelda.co/">National Elections Across Democracy and Autocracy (NELDA)</a> dataset to code relevant national elections each year. NELDA stopped coding election events ending in 2012, so we have expanded the data into the end of 2019. We code <em>general election violence</em> and <em>government harassment/violence</em> using the same rules as NELDA, and continue to code these outcomes for each new election event. Our predictor variables come from a combination of environmental, economic, social, and political measures that are found in our <a href="https://oefdatascience.github.io/REIGN.github.io/">Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance (REIGN)</a> dataset.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Modeling</strong>: We use a combination of methods to produce more accurate predictions of election violence. First, we start by implementing a <a href="https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/tscv/">rolling origin cross validation</a> procedure for training our algorithm by taking into account temporal sequence. This allows us to avoid training on future data. Second, we use an ensemble of three classification algorithms. To do this, we use a greedy optimization procedure on top of a (1) random forest, (2) logistic regression, and (3) a neural network.</p></li>
<li><strong>Insight</strong>: Using the above, we provide four distinct insights into election violence.
<ul>
<li><strong>Predictions</strong>: We provide an annual list of election violence risk at the beginning of each year. As elections happen, we update our predictions each month with both new outcomes and new social/economic data as it is released.<br />
</li>
<li><strong>Variable Importance</strong>: Based off the most up-to-date training data, we also provide estimates of predictor importance as they relate to the accurate classification of election violence.</li>
<li><strong>Variable Relationships</strong>: We use partial dependence functions to visualize the relationship between our predictors and the risk of election violence.</li>
<li><strong>Accuracy</strong>: We provide information on how well our system performs over the year and how it has performed historically.</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="data-source-and-citation." class="section level3">
<h3>Data Source and Citation.</h3>
<p>You can download our monthly updated training data for ELVIS <a href="">here</a>. (<strong>UPDATED APRIL 5TH 2019</strong>)</p>
<p>If you wish you use the ELVIS data for your own projects, we recommend the following citation:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Citation TBD</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>If you are citing ELVIS, we also encourage the citation of the following data as well:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Susan D. Hyde and Nikolay Marinov, 2012, Which Elections Can Be Lost?, Political Analysis, 20(2), 191-201.</p></li>
<li><p>Bell, Curtis. 2016. The Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance Dataset (REIGN). Broomfield, CO: OEF Research. Available at oefresearch.org</p></li>
</ul>
<p>For any questions concerning ELVIS, our modeling, or data, please contact Clayton Besaw (<a href="mailto:cbesaw@oneearthfuture.org" class="email">cbesaw@oneearthfuture.org</a>)</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="elections" class="section level1" data-navmenu="Election Violence Forecasts">
<h1>2019 Elections</h1>
<div id="column-2" class="section level2" data-width="350">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="data-table-information" class="section level3">
<h3>Data Table Information</h3>
<p>For each year, we supply both an annual risk table that is updated at the beginning of the year (<strong>2019 ANNUAL RISK TABLE</strong>) and a monthly updated risk table for remaining elections (<strong>REMAINING 2019 NATIONAL ELECTIONS</strong>). Below we provide a brief description of each variable displayed, but feel free to contact Clayton Besaw (<a href="mailto:cbesaw@oneearthfuture.org" class="email">cbesaw@oneearthfuture.org</a>) with any additional questions.</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Country</strong>: Country in which the election event is taking place.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Election Date</strong>: Date that election event is set to take place in month/day/year format. This information is likely to change as election dates are often volatile or delayed.</p></li>
<li><strong>Probability of Violence</strong>: Predicted probability of general election-related violence before/during/after an election event.
<ul>
<li>For annual risk table, this is the base-line prediction based on only the historic training data. For the monthly risk table, this is the updated prediction for each election event based on historic data and new events.</li>
</ul></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentile</strong>: The percentile ranking for each election event based on the complete distribution of election violence forecasts.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Risk Change since January</strong>: This is the change in the probability of election-related violence between the monthly updates and the base-line forecasts made at the beginning of the year (monthly risk table only).</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Outcome</strong>: Dichotomous classification of whether an election event was peaceful or experienced election-related violence before/during/after the event. Updated as election events are completed (annual risk table only).</p></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="elections-completed-as-of-april-2019" class="section level3">
<h3>2019 Elections Completed (As of April 2019)</h3>
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<div id="predictive-accuracy-as-of-march-2019" class="section level3">
<h3>2019 Predictive Accuracy (As of March 2019)</h3>
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<div id="proportion-of-violent-elections-in-2018-as-of-march-2019" class="section level3">
<h3>Proportion of Violent Elections in 2018 (As of March 2019)</h3>
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</div>
<div id="column-3" class="section level2" data-width="650">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="remaining-2019-national-elections-updated-april-2019" class="section level3">
<h3>Remaining 2019 National Elections (UPDATED April 2019)</h3>
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<div id="annual-risk-table-updated-january-2019" class="section level3">
<h3>2019 ANNUAL RISK TABLE (UPDATED January 2019)</h3>
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</div>
<div id="historical-data-archive" class="section level1" data-navmenu="Election Violence Forecasts">
<h1>Historical Data Archive</h1>
<div id="column-4" class="section level2" data-width="350">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="data-table-information-1" class="section level3">
<h3>Data Table Information</h3>
<p>This archive provides information on over two thousand unique national election events regarding their dates and whether election-related violence occured before/during/after the event. You can use the search box to look up specific countries, and the columns can be used to sort each variable according to their measurement type. If you wish to have access to the full training data, which includes this information, you can download it <a href="">here</a>.</p>
<ul>
<li><p><strong>Country</strong>: Country in which the election event is taking place.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Election Date</strong>: Date that election event is set to take place in month/day/year format. This information is likely to change as election dates are often volatile or delayed.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Outcome</strong>: Dichotomous classification of whether an election event was peaceful or experienced election-related violence before/during/after the event. Updated as election events are completed.</p></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="proportion-of-violent-elections-1975---2019" class="section level3">
<h3>Proportion of Violent Elections (1975 - 2019)</h3>
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</div>
<div id="column-5" class="section level2" data-width="650">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="election-information-and-violence-outcomes-1975---2019" class="section level3">
<h3>Election Information and Violence Outcomes (1975 - 2019)</h3>
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</div>
</div>
<div id="accuracy" class="section level1" data-navmenu="Model Insights">
<h1>Accuracy</h1>
<div id="column-data-width-150" class="section level2">
<h2>Column {data-width = 150}</h2>
<div class="knitr-options" data-fig-width="576" data-fig-height="460">

</div>
<div id="how-do-we-measure-accuracy" class="section level3">
<h3>How do we measure accuracy?</h3>
<p>Because our system tires to classify the likelihood of election violence occuring, we use measurement of accuracy called the area under the curve <a href="http://gim.unmc.edu/dxtests/roc3.htm">(AUC)</a> score. AUC scores range from .5 (random guessing) to 1 (percent accuracy), and can be interpreted using the following heuristic.</p>
<ul>
<li>.91 - 1 (<strong>Excellent Accuracy</strong>)</li>
<li>.81 - .90 (<strong>Good Accuracy</strong>)</li>
<li>.71 - .80 (<strong>Fair/Acceptable Accuracy</strong>)</li>
<li>.61 - .70 (<strong>Poor Accuracy</strong>)</li>
<li>.50 - .60 (<strong>Almost Randomly Guessing</strong>)</li>
</ul>
<p>Using rolling origin cross-validation, on historical data (1975 - 2017), we obtained an average AUC score of 0.88 corresponding to an average accuracy of 77 percent of elections correctly classified. The figures to the right display the change in AUC scores for out-of-sample data into 2017. As expected, the inclusion of more data over time has resulted in impressive AUC scores (0.91 in 2016 and 0.91 in 2017) for recent election years. Overall, our model has a good track record on historical data and suggests an actionable level of accuracy for each new slate of national elections.</p>
<p>As of October 26th, 2018, our model has achieved an AUC score of 0.83 corresponding to an accuracy of 80 percent.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="column-data-width-750" class="section level2">
<h2>Column {data-width = 750}</h2>
<div id="model-accuracy-on-historical-out-of-sample-years-1975---2017" class="section level3">
<h3>Model Accuracy on Historical Out-of-Sample Years (1975 - 2017)</h3>
<div class="knitr-options" data-fig-width="576" data-fig-height="460">

</div>
<p><img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.png" width="576" data-figure-id=fig2 /><img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-2.png" width="576" data-figure-id=fig2 /></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="variable-importance" class="section level1" data-navmenu="Model Insights">
<h1>Variable Importance</h1>
<div id="column-6" class="section level2" data-width="350">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="variable-descriptions" class="section level3">
<h3>Variable Descriptions</h3>
<p>The bar-plots to the right display the variable importance for each predictor included in our model. Variable importance is an estimate of how much each individual variable contributes to <strong>predictive accuracy</strong>. This is achieved by running multiple permutations of our forecasting models in which every variable is replaced with <strong>random noise</strong>. If accuracy decreases when a variable is replaced, then that variable is deemed more important for predictive accuracy. Our greedy ensemble classifier allows us to utilize the idiosyncratic nature of individual classifiers to built an overall measure of predictor importance. Each predictor is briefly described below:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>History of Election Violence</strong>: This predictor is created by calculating the first principle component (linear combination) of three factors:
<ul>
<li><strong>(a)</strong>: Did election-related violence take place in the previous election event?</li>
<li><strong>(b)</strong>: How many election events since the last instance of election-related violence?</li>
<li><strong>(c)</strong>: How much election-related violence has been experienced previously by a country?</li>
</ul></li>
<li><p><strong>GDP per Capita</strong>: Measurement of GDP per Capita for the country-year of the election event.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Population</strong>: Logged measure of population for the country-year of the election event.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Infant Mortality Rate</strong>: Logged measure of infant mortality rate for the country-year of the election event.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Coup Risk</strong>: Estimated risk of a military coup in the month of the election. Taken from <a href="">REIGN</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Quality of Democracy</strong>: Measure of high quality democracy (10) or low quality/authoritarian (-10) for the country-year of the election event. Taken from <a href="">Polity IV</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Economic Growth</strong>: Percent growth/decline in GDP for the country-year of the election event.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Relative Precipitation</strong>: Estimated relative level (SPI) of rain-fall in the month of the election. Base data taken from <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.precl.html">NOAA’s PRECipitation REConstruction over Land (PREC/L) data</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Regime Tenure</strong>: Number of months a regime has been in power during the month of an election. Taken from <a href="">REIGN</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Political Competition</strong>: Level of political competition for the country-year of the election event. Taken from <a href="">Polity IV</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Executive Constraints</strong>: Level of constraints on the political executive for the country-year of the election event. Taken from <a href="">Polity IV</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Time Since Last Election</strong>: Number of months since the last successful election during the month of an election. Taken from <a href="">REIGN</a>.</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Election in Next Six Months</strong>: Dichotomous measure of whether another election is expected within six-months of an election event. Taken from <a href="">REIGN</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="column-7" class="section level2 tabset tabset-fade">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="greedy-ensemble-classifier-overall-importance" class="section level3">
<h3>Greedy Ensemble Classifier (Overall Importance)</h3>
<div class="knitr-options" data-fig-width="576" data-fig-height="460">

</div>
<p><img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="576" data-figure-id=fig4 /></p>
</div>
<div id="random-forest-classifier" class="section level3">
<h3>Random Forest Classifier</h3>
<div class="knitr-options" data-fig-width="576" data-fig-height="460">

</div>
<p><img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="576" data-figure-id=fig5 /></p>
</div>
<div id="neural-net-classifier" class="section level3">
<h3>Neural Net Classifier</h3>
<div class="knitr-options" data-fig-width="576" data-fig-height="460">

</div>
<p><img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.png" width="576" data-figure-id=fig6 /></p>
</div>
<div id="logistic-regression-classifier" class="section level3">
<h3>Logistic Regression Classifier</h3>
<div class="knitr-options" data-fig-width="576" data-fig-height="460">

</div>
<p><img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.png" width="576" data-figure-id=fig7 /></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div id="variable-relationships" class="section level1" data-navmenu="Model Insights">
<h1>Variable Relationships</h1>
<div id="column-8" class="section level2">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="variable-relationships-1" class="section level3">
<h3>Variable Relationships</h3>
<p>To further provide <strong>actionable</strong> information about ELVIS, we utilize <strong>partial dependence plots</strong> as a way to visualize the relationship between the values of our predictors and the expected risk of election-related violence. Partial dependence plots are similar in concept to the marginal effect. Essentially, these calculations can tell us the expected relationship between any one predictor variable and the expected classification of election-related violence while controlling for all other predictors simultaneously. For brief descriptions of each predictor, please see our <a href="#variable-importance">variable importance</a> page. For a brief guide on interpretation, see the description below.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Partial Dependence Plots (Single Variable)</strong>:
<ul>
<li><strong>X-Axis</strong>: Name corresponds to the predictor variable of interest. Values along the x-axis correspond to real values of the predictor variable.</li>
<li><strong>Y-Axis</strong>: Values correspond to the expected classification of election-related violence based on a real value of the predictor variable. Higher values on the y-axis indicate greater expected classification of violence, while lower values indicate greater expected classification of peace.</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>
<p> <!-- \ This is a space, do not remove --></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Partial Dependence Plots (Multi-Variable)</strong>:
<ul>
<li><strong>X-Axis</strong>: Name corresponds to the first predictor variable of interest. Values along the x-axis correspond to real values of the predictor variable.</li>
<li><strong>Y-Axis</strong>: Name corresponds to the second predictor variable of interest. Values along the x-axis correspond to real values of the predictor variable.</li>
<li><strong>Z-Axis</strong>: Values correspond to the expected classification of election-related violence based on a real value of the predictor variable. Higher values on the y-axis indicate greater expected classification of violence, while lower values indicate greater expected classification of peace.</li>
<li><strong>Note on Color</strong>: The multi-variable plot displays a 3D representation of the expected classification based on the values of two interacting predictors. The more blue/purple the color, the more likely our models is expected to classify peace. In contrast, the more green/yellow the color, the more likely our model is expected to classify election-related violence.</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="column-9" class="section level2 tabset tabset-fade" data-width="1050">
<h2>Column</h2>
<div id="partial-dependence-plots-single-variable" class="section level3">
<h3>Partial Dependence Plots (Single Variable)</h3>
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<option value="pcgdp.png">GDP Per Capita</option>
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<div id="partial-dependence-plots-multi-variable" class="section level3">
<h3>Partial Dependence Plots (Multi Variable)</h3>
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