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sec 17.5 (prediction intervals) has issues #163

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murphyk opened this issue Jul 7, 2023 · 0 comments
Open

sec 17.5 (prediction intervals) has issues #163

murphyk opened this issue Jul 7, 2023 · 0 comments

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@murphyk
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murphyk commented Jul 7, 2023

The equation in Sec 17.5.2 (Predicting Crab Size) is likely very obscure to most readers.

Screenshot 2023-07-07 at 9 30 39 AM

Maybe it would be helpful to explain that this is computing the
square root of the variance of the predictive distribution

Var(Y; D) = Var(Y | theta_hat(D)) + Var(theta_hat(D)) 
               ~ sigma_hat^2(D)  + sigma_hat^2(D)/n

(where we treat D as random, since we are adopting the frequentist paradigm).

The equation in sec 17.5.3 (Predicting the Incremental Growth of a Crab) likely looks even more obscure to most readers

Screenshot 2023-07-07 at 9 30 20 AM

It would help to refer back to sec 15.5.1 (A Geometric Problem) where you have a (very elegant) derivation
of theta_hat = (X' X)^{-1} X' y and also mention that sigma_hat = SD(e). Then maybe explain what you computing is the square root of the variance of the conditional predictive distribution

Var(Y0|x0; D) = Var(Y0 | x0; theta_hat(D)) + Var(theta_hat(D) | x0) 
                     ~ sigma_hat^2(D) + sigma_hat^2(D) x_0' (X' X)^{-1} x_0

(where we treat D=(X,y) as random, and x0 as fixed). (I have assumed x0 is a column vector, rather than a row vector, so that the second term looks like an inner product, as it should.)

You can then explain that these equations are derived in sec 17.6 (I assume...)

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