Wastewater genome concentration generative model

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Goal

We want to have a single source of truth for the mathematical formulation of the generative model of viral genome concentration in wastewater. This should be a convolution of infections per capita and a normalized shedding kinetics distribution, scaled by the average genomes shed per infection. We want to be able to use this to immediately code up the math decided upon here.

Context

This was discussed in the 2024-02-27 meeting (see minutes) and agreed upon in the ADR record under model_features.md. This specific feature should be the same as what's implemented in the existing wastewater model. Completion of this task will allow us to implement the feature more quickly and should facilitate creation of a model design document.

Required features

• mathematical description of the genome concentration generative function
• add to the feature to the model design document
• Include an independent test that checks TBD.
• Include documentation in the code using docstring

Out of scope

• This does not include code, just specification of the feature in math/writing
• Time-varying number of genomes shed per infection
• Expected variability in the genome concentration as a function of the number of contributing infections

Related documents

• Model feature prioritization
• Existing wastewater model definition

Ref: https://github.com/cdcent/cfa-multisignal-renewal/issues/80
author: @kaitejohnson