Model right-truncation

[ghost]

Goal

We want to have a single source of truth for the mathematical formulation for a minimal ability to model right truncation, e.g. assuming reporting delays follow a parametric distribution. We want to be able to use this to immediately code up the math decided upon here.

Context

This was discussed in the 2024-02-27 meeting (see minutes) and agreed upon in the ADR record under model_features.md. This specific feature should be the same as what's implemented in the existing wastewater model. Completion of this task will allow us to implement the feature more quickly and should facilitate creation of a model design document.

Required features

• mathematical description for the right-truncation model implementation
• add to the feature to the model design document
• Include an independent test that checks TBD.
• Include documentation in the code using docstring

Out of scope

• This does not include code, just specification of the feature in math/writing
• Joint inference of delay distribution (should be scoped in a separate issue)
• Ability to combine parametric delay with hazards based delay (should be scoped in a separate issue)

Related documents

• Model feature prioritization
• Existing wastewater model definition

Ref: https://github.com/cdcent/cfa-multisignal-renewal/issues/78
author: @kaitejohnson