ED visits generative model

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Goal

We want to have a single source of truth for the generative model of the state-level ED visits, with modularity for sub-state (e.g. facility level) ED visits in mind. This might be identical to the hospital admissions generative model but with an estimate of the $P(ED_{visit}|I)$ and an estimate of the infection to ED visit delay distribution. We want to be able to use this to immediately code up the math decided upon here.

Context

This was discussed in the 2024-02-27 meeting (see minutes) and agreed upon in the ADR record under model_features.md. This specific feature should be the same as what's implemented in the existing wastewater model. Completion of this task will allow us to implement the feature more quickly and should facilitate creation of a model design document.

Required features

• mathematical description of the ED visit generative model
• estimate of prior on $P(ED_{visit}|I)$
• estimate of infection to ED visit delay distribution or proposed method to obtain this delay distribution
• add to the feature to the model design document
• Include an independent test that checks TBD.
• Include documentation in the code using docstring

Out of scope

• This does not include code, just specification of the feature in math/writing

Related documents

• Model feature prioritization
• Existing wastewater model definition

Ref: https://github.com/cdcent/cfa-multisignal-renewal/issues/76
author: @kaitejohnson