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Dynamic Factor Models MQ: forecast with probabilities #9183

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vks2 opened this issue Mar 28, 2024 · 0 comments
Open

Dynamic Factor Models MQ: forecast with probabilities #9183

vks2 opened this issue Mar 28, 2024 · 0 comments

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@vks2
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vks2 commented Mar 28, 2024

Hi Chad, hello all fans of statsmodels
Just a quick question from 3-years user of your models
can we make some kind of probability with the prediction?
I mean, we return prediction_mean to end users
then that figures, say GDP forecast, are transformed to some labels, for example strong growth, weak growth, etc.
may we merge that labels with some probabilities with dynamic factor mq possibilities - I mean strong growth with prob 10%, weak growth with prob 20%
how would you deal with such a problem.
thanks much

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