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90% IPCC trend intervals used as approximation for +- 1 s.d. #37

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bvegawe opened this issue Mar 21, 2019 · 0 comments
Open

90% IPCC trend intervals used as approximation for +- 1 s.d. #37

bvegawe opened this issue Mar 21, 2019 · 0 comments

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@bvegawe
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bvegawe commented Mar 21, 2019

The uncertain ranges for AIS and TE trends that are taken from the IPCC have listed lower and upper values at 5% and 95% (pg 1151, ch. 13). If I understand right, we use this range as an approximation for the +- 1 s.d. range in our likelihood functions. Shouldn't this be more like +-1.6 s.d.? Is this a conscious choice to be less confident than the IPCC?
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