Calculate "outcomes" for a case

[newswim]

We want to indicate whether a case had a "positive" or "negative" outcome for the defendant.

One way this could be done

For example, identify a helpful motion filed within a given window of time after the charge date.

Scope

For this ticket, we want to gather ideas of how outcomes could be determined for a given case.

More info: https://open-austin.slack.com/archives/C040CNMFXT8/p1667871702924849

[normaljosh]

During the conversation we had with professors, they said number of motions filed was more compelling than outcomes (since they could be affected by a variety of factors) so I'd say that might be the priority for the mvp. We did bring up during that meeting that "outcome" would likely be measured by what the final charge ended up being vs the initial charge, which both seemed to be consistent locations in the case file.

Charges vs dispositions I believe

[nicolassaw]

Recommendations for measuring outcomes

Key interesting questions:

• Does having an appointed attorney versus a retained attorney mean someone is more likely to be punished by a sentence in a jail cell as opposed to probation? There are a few important things that separate a jail sentence from probation and why it's meaningful:
  • a jail sentence means someone will get a conviction, while probationary sentences sometimes mean someone can get that charge record removed
  • a jail sentence means someone will be or has already been spending (probably too much) time in jail, while a probationary sentence means someone is out of custody living their lives
• Does having an appointed versus a retained attorney mean someone is more likely to be punished more harshly? Looking at all of the forms of punishment, one might compare the average numbers for differences in:
  • jail days: days someone is required to spend in a jail cage
  • community supervision aka probation aka deferred adjudication days: days someone is required to be one a probation period subject to supervision
  • fines: financial costs imposed by the court as a form of punishment
  • court costs and fees: expenses of managing the court and other criminal legal processes
  • restitution: financial compensation to crime victims
  • community service hours: spending time volunteering
  • probationary tasks: various classes, reporting requirements, and monitoring during a probationary period (examples include random urinalysis, victim impact panels, and DWI intervention courses)

There is a six main dispositions or stages of a case:

• dismissal: A filed case goes away as a legal matter in the court, but it can be refiled within the statute of limitations, unless dismissed with prejudice. This is eligible for expunction from your criminal record.
• rejected by the prosecution: A prosecutor has decided to refuse to proceed with prosecution of an unfiled case arising from a police charge, but it can be refiled within the statute of limitations. This is eligible for expunction from your criminal record.
• conviction with jail time: Someone makes a plea of guilty or no contest, or is convicted at trial, and someone's punishment is jail time. A sentence may include probation after a jail sentence. This stays on your record as a conviction.
• conviction with probation: someone makes a plea of guilty or no contest, or is convicted at trial, and someone's punishment is probation. A sentence may include a jail sentence before a probation term. If probation is revoked, someone can be sentenced for jail time up to the term that was probated at sentencing (see "conviction with jail time"). This is stays on your record as a conviction.
• deferred adjudication aka community supervision: Someone makes a plea of guilty or no contest, but the judge withholds their findings of guilt until after a probationary period. If deferred adjudication is successfully completed, the charge will be dismissed and is possibly eligible for expunction (see "dismissal"). If deferred adjudication is revoked, someone can be sentenced to jail time up the maximum term for that offense and it will become a conviction on their record (see "conviction with jail time").
• pretrial diversion programs: A prosecutor-run probationary period whereby program participants are able to secure dismissals or pleas to significantly lower charges in exchange for successfully completing probationary programs. May or may not require a sworn admission of guilt. May occur before or after the prosecutor formally files the charge.
• motion to revoke (probation/deferred adjudication, community supervision) aka motion to adjudicate (guilt): A motion to revoke is a motion by a prosecutor to remove someone from a probationary sentence and sentence them to jail time. This occurs if the state feels the person has not been successfully completing their probationary terms.

Pleas
There are three types of pleas: not guilty, guilty, no contest. Not guilty is the standard response until someone accepts a plea offer. Guilty and no contest are practically identical.

There may be more than one disposition for a case.
Any disposition that involves a probationary period--conviction with probation, deferred adjudication, or pretrial diversion--can be turned into a jail sentence with a conviction if the person fails to complete the requirements of the probationary period. In addition, if a charge is dismissal or rejected, it may be refiled within the statute of limitations (but this is more rare). Finally, someone's probationary period sentences may be modified over time for a variety of reasons. If you were to decide on only one to choose, choose the one that's most recent in time.

Time served aka back time aka term washed
Someone who is sentenced to time served receives a conviction for jail time, but the jail credit to satisfy the jail time is paid by time they already spent in jail. They are more or less equivalent to regular jail convictions, except in the past.

Anatomy of a multi-disposition case (see image below):

• Orange: Original plea of no contest, essentially taking responsibility
• Green: Official disposition of the case is deferred adjudication, a type of probationary sentence that may be removed from your record
• Blue: Terms of the sentence, including length of probation and supervision by CSCD ("Community Supervision and Corrections Department"), community service, fines, court costs, and probationary terms
• Purple: Disposition turns from suspended conviction to conviction as a result of a judicial order revoking the probationary term
• Yellow: A new terms of the sentence similar to blue again, where someone is again permitted to be continued on a probationary term
• Grey: A third set of new terms of the sentence similar to yellow and blue again, where someone has likely failed to complete their probationary terms for a second time and is now finally being sentenced to jail time, which they are receiving one day of jail time that they've already served.

*Hay County Cause Number: Case No. 13-2936CR

[normaljosh]

fwiw, we do extract the relevant information from dispositions in the raw case json (the case id in the above example is actually 13-2936CR)

        "dispositions": [
            [
                "10/30/2018",
                "Plea",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert)",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "Nolo Contendere"
            ],
            [
                "10/30/2018",
                "Disposition",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert)",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "Deferred Adjudication"
            ],
            [
                "10/30/2018",
                "Deferred Adjudication",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert)",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "CSCD",
                "18 Months",
                "with Community Service of 30 Hours",
                "Provisions (Fine/Court Cost)",
                "300/262",
                "Provisions (Other)",
                "COMPLETE A REQUIRED ANGER MANAGMENT COURSE"
            ],
            [
                "10/22/2019",
                "Amended Plea",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert) Reason: Amendment, Order Adjudicating/Probation Revocation",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "True"
            ],
            [
                "10/22/2019",
                "Amended Disposition",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert) Reason: Amendment, Order Adjudicating/Probation Revocation",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "Convicted"
            ],
            [
                "10/22/2019",
                "Amended Sentence",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert) Reason: Amendment, Order Adjudicating/Probation Revocation",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "CSCD",
                "18 Months",
                "with Community Service of 30 Hours",
                "Provisions (Fine/Court Cost)",
                "300/262"
            ],
            [
                "09/16/2021",
                "Amended Plea",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert) Reason: Order Adjudicating/Probation Revocation",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "True"
            ],
            [
                "09/16/2021",
                "Amended Disposition",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert) Reason: Order Adjudicating/Probation Revocation",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "Convicted"
            ],
            [
                "09/17/2021",
                "Amended Sentence",
                "(Judicial Officer: Updegrove, Robert) Reason: Order Adjudicating/Probation Revocation",
                "1. INTERFERE W/PUBLIC DUTIES",
                "Confinement to Commence",
                "09/17/2021",
                "11 Days",
                ", County Jail, Hays County Sheriff's Office - Local Confinement",
                "Jail Credit",
                "1 Days"
            ]

[tpadmanabhan]

Validate priority with Nick. Is this nice-to-have?

[tpadmanabhan]

@newswim Nick would like access to this data

[tpadmanabhan]

Per @nicolassaw priority is high

[normaljosh]

Once nick has added a parsing field or 2, I think this would be something to re-evaluate (and maybe discuss w/ an interested data scientist?)