Baseline Modelling.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Importing the required libraries\n",
    "\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "import seaborn as sns\n",
    "\n",
    "from IPython.display import clear_output,display"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# importing the train and test datasets\n",
    "\n",
    "train=pd.read_csv(\"train.csv\")\n",
    "test=pd.read_csv(\"test.csv\")\n",
    "sample_sub=pd.read_csv(\"sample_submission.csv\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>ID</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sales</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>883</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>884</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>885</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>886</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>887</td>\n",
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       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "      <th>35995</th>\n",
       "      <td>548083</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35996</th>\n",
       "      <td>548084</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35997</th>\n",
       "      <td>548085</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35998</th>\n",
       "      <td>548086</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "      <th>35999</th>\n",
       "      <td>548087</td>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
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       "<p>36000 rows × 2 columns</p>\n",
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      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "           ID  Sales\n",
       "0         883      5\n",
       "1         884      5\n",
       "2         885      5\n",
       "3         886      5\n",
       "4         887      5\n",
       "...       ...    ...\n",
       "35995  548083      5\n",
       "35996  548084      5\n",
       "35997  548085      5\n",
       "35998  548086      5\n",
       "35999  548087      5\n",
       "\n",
       "[36000 rows x 2 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "sample_sub"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "train[\"Week_No\"]=np.ceil(train[\"Day_No\"]/7)\n",
    "train[\"Year_No\"]=np.ceil(train[\"Week_No\"]/52)\n",
    "train[\"Week_No\"]=(train[\"Week_No\"]%52)\n",
    "train.drop(columns=\"ID\",inplace=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "train.loc[train[\"Week_No\"]==0,\"Week_No\"]=train.loc[train[\"Week_No\"]==0,\"Week_No\"].apply(lambda x: x+1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "test[\"Week_No\"]=np.ceil(test[\"Day_No\"]/7)\n",
    "test[\"Year_No\"]=np.ceil(test[\"Week_No\"]/52)\n",
    "test[\"Week_No\"]=(test[\"Week_No\"]%52)\n",
    "test.drop(columns=\"ID\",inplace=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "test.loc[test[\"Week_No\"]==0,\"Week_No\"]=test.loc[test[\"Week_No\"]==0,\"Week_No\"].apply(lambda x: x+1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def export_submission(predictions,filename=\"Sample.csv\"):\n",
    "    \n",
    "    ss=sample_sub.copy()\n",
    "    ss[\"Sales\"]=predictions\n",
    "    ss.to_csv(f\"{filename}.csv\",index=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Baseline Models"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Mean By Course ID"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_ID</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sales</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>85.251701</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>120.595238</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>153.207483</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>94.812925</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>5</td>\n",
       "      <td>113.215420</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>595</th>\n",
       "      <td>596</td>\n",
       "      <td>84.924036</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>596</th>\n",
       "      <td>597</td>\n",
       "      <td>91.241497</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>597</th>\n",
       "      <td>598</td>\n",
       "      <td>180.100907</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>598</th>\n",
       "      <td>599</td>\n",
       "      <td>116.346939</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>599</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.198413</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>600 rows × 2 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "     Course_ID       Sales\n",
       "0            1   85.251701\n",
       "1            2  120.595238\n",
       "2            3  153.207483\n",
       "3            4   94.812925\n",
       "4            5  113.215420\n",
       "..         ...         ...\n",
       "595        596   84.924036\n",
       "596        597   91.241497\n",
       "597        598  180.100907\n",
       "598        599  116.346939\n",
       "599        600  109.198413\n",
       "\n",
       "[600 rows x 2 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 20,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mean_by_course=train.groupby([\"Course_ID\"])[\"Sales\"].mean().to_frame()\n",
    "mean_by_course.reset_index(inplace=True)\n",
    "mean_by_course"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Day_No</th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_ID</th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_Domain</th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_Type</th>\n",
       "      <th>Short_Promotion</th>\n",
       "      <th>Public_Holiday</th>\n",
       "      <th>Long_Promotion</th>\n",
       "      <th>Competition_Metric</th>\n",
       "      <th>Week_No</th>\n",
       "      <th>Year_No</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sales</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>883</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>85.251701</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>884</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>85.251701</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>885</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>85.251701</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>886</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>85.251701</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>887</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>85.251701</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
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       "      <th>...</th>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35995</th>\n",
       "      <td>938</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>30.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.198413</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35996</th>\n",
       "      <td>939</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.198413</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35997</th>\n",
       "      <td>940</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.198413</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35998</th>\n",
       "      <td>941</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.198413</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35999</th>\n",
       "      <td>942</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>109.198413</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>36000 rows × 11 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       Day_No  Course_ID       Course_Domain Course_Type  Short_Promotion  \\\n",
       "0         883          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "1         884          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "2         885          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "3         886          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "4         887          1         Development      Course                0   \n",
       "...       ...        ...                 ...         ...              ...   \n",
       "35995     938        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35996     939        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35997     940        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35998     941        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35999     942        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "\n",
       "       Public_Holiday  Long_Promotion  Competition_Metric  Week_No  Year_No  \\\n",
       "0                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "1                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "2                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "3                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "4                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "...               ...             ...                 ...      ...      ...   \n",
       "35995               0               1               0.070     30.0      3.0   \n",
       "35996               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "35997               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "35998               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "35999               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "            Sales  \n",
       "0       85.251701  \n",
       "1       85.251701  \n",
       "2       85.251701  \n",
       "3       85.251701  \n",
       "4       85.251701  \n",
       "...           ...  \n",
       "35995  109.198413  \n",
       "35996  109.198413  \n",
       "35997  109.198413  \n",
       "35998  109.198413  \n",
       "35999  109.198413  \n",
       "\n",
       "[36000 rows x 11 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 21,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "test.merge(mean_by_course)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "export_submission(test.merge(mean_by_course)[\"Sales\"],\"Mean_by_Course_ID\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Mean by Course_ID and Week_No"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_ID</th>\n",
       "      <th>Week_No</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sales</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>58.214286</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>67.476190</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>93.333333</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>4.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>79.333333</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>77.523810</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>31195</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>48.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>108.857143</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>31196</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>145.928571</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>31197</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>142.142857</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>31198</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>51.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>121.214286</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>31199</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>52.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>185.714286</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>31200 rows × 3 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       Course_ID  Week_No       Sales\n",
       "0              1      1.0   58.214286\n",
       "1              1      2.0   67.476190\n",
       "2              1      3.0   93.333333\n",
       "3              1      4.0   79.333333\n",
       "4              1      5.0   77.523810\n",
       "...          ...      ...         ...\n",
       "31195        600     48.0  108.857143\n",
       "31196        600     49.0  145.928571\n",
       "31197        600     50.0  142.142857\n",
       "31198        600     51.0  121.214286\n",
       "31199        600     52.0  185.714286\n",
       "\n",
       "[31200 rows x 3 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 37,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mean_by_course_week=train.groupby([\"Course_ID\",\"Week_No\"])[\"Sales\"].mean().to_frame()\n",
    "mean_by_course_week.reset_index(inplace=True)\n",
    "mean_by_course_week"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 38,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th>Course_ID</th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_Domain</th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_Type</th>\n",
       "      <th>Short_Promotion</th>\n",
       "      <th>Public_Holiday</th>\n",
       "      <th>Long_Promotion</th>\n",
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       "      <th>Week_No</th>\n",
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       "      <th>0</th>\n",
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       "      <td>24.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>87.785714</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>885</td>\n",
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       "      <td>1</td>\n",
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       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>87.785714</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>886</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>24.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>87.785714</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>887</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
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       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35995</th>\n",
       "      <td>938</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>94.571429</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35996</th>\n",
       "      <td>939</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>119.857143</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35997</th>\n",
       "      <td>940</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>119.857143</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35998</th>\n",
       "      <td>941</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>119.857143</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35999</th>\n",
       "      <td>942</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>32.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>119.857143</td>\n",
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       "<p>36000 rows × 11 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       Day_No  Course_ID       Course_Domain Course_Type  Short_Promotion  \\\n",
       "0         883          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "1         884          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "2         885          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "3         886          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "4         887          1         Development      Course                0   \n",
       "...       ...        ...                 ...         ...              ...   \n",
       "35995     938        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35996     939        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35997     940        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35998     941        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35999     942        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "\n",
       "       Public_Holiday  Long_Promotion  Competition_Metric  Week_No  Year_No  \\\n",
       "0                   0               1               0.007     24.0      3.0   \n",
       "1                   0               1               0.007     24.0      3.0   \n",
       "2                   0               1               0.007     24.0      3.0   \n",
       "3                   0               1               0.007     24.0      3.0   \n",
       "4                   0               1               0.007     24.0      3.0   \n",
       "...               ...             ...                 ...      ...      ...   \n",
       "35995               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "35996               0               1               0.070     32.0      3.0   \n",
       "35997               0               1               0.070     32.0      3.0   \n",
       "35998               0               1               0.070     32.0      3.0   \n",
       "35999               0               1               0.070     32.0      3.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "            Sales  \n",
       "0       87.785714  \n",
       "1       87.785714  \n",
       "2       87.785714  \n",
       "3       87.785714  \n",
       "4       87.785714  \n",
       "...           ...  \n",
       "35995   94.571429  \n",
       "35996  119.857143  \n",
       "35997  119.857143  \n",
       "35998  119.857143  \n",
       "35999  119.857143  \n",
       "\n",
       "[36000 rows x 11 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 38,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "test.merge(mean_by_course_week)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 39,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "export_submission(test.merge(mean_by_course_week)[\"Sales\"],\"Mean_by_Course_ID_Week_No\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Mean by Course_ID, Week_No and Short_Promotion"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_ID</th>\n",
       "      <th>Week_No</th>\n",
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       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>57.125000</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
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       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>66.133333</td>\n",
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       "      <th>...</th>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61195</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>49.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>154.125000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61196</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>105.333333</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61197</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>50.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>216.500000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61198</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>51.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>189.166667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61199</th>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>51.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>183.125000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>61200 rows × 5 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       Course_ID  Week_No  Short_Promotion       Course_Domain  \\\n",
       "0              1      1.0                0         Development   \n",
       "1              1      1.0                1         Development   \n",
       "2              1      2.0                0         Development   \n",
       "3              1      2.0                1         Development   \n",
       "4              1      3.0                0         Development   \n",
       "...          ...      ...              ...                 ...   \n",
       "61195        600     49.0                1  Software Marketing   \n",
       "61196        600     50.0                0  Software Marketing   \n",
       "61197        600     50.0                1  Software Marketing   \n",
       "61198        600     51.0                0  Software Marketing   \n",
       "61199        600     51.0                1  Software Marketing   \n",
       "\n",
       "       Target_Course_ID  \n",
       "0             57.125000  \n",
       "1            134.666667  \n",
       "2             70.125000  \n",
       "3            107.615385  \n",
       "4             66.133333  \n",
       "...                 ...  \n",
       "61195        154.125000  \n",
       "61196        105.333333  \n",
       "61197        216.500000  \n",
       "61198        189.166667  \n",
       "61199        183.125000  \n",
       "\n",
       "[61200 rows x 5 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 12,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "mean_by_course=train.groupby([\"Course_ID\",\"Week_No\",\"Short_Promotion\",\"Course_Domain\"])[\"Sales\"].mean().to_frame()\n",
    "mean_by_course.reset_index(inplace=True)\n",
    "mean_by_course[\"Target_Course_ID\"]=mean_by_course[\"Sales\"]\n",
    "mean_by_course.drop(columns=\"Sales\",inplace=True)\n",
    "mean_by_course"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>886</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>104.875000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>887</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>23.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>65.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35995</th>\n",
       "      <td>938</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>30.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>149.000000</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35996</th>\n",
       "      <td>939</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>129.666667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35997</th>\n",
       "      <td>940</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>129.666667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35998</th>\n",
       "      <td>941</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>129.666667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>35999</th>\n",
       "      <td>942</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>31.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>129.666667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>36000 rows × 11 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "       Day_No  Course_ID       Course_Domain Course_Type  Short_Promotion  \\\n",
       "0         883          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "1         884          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "2         885          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "3         886          1         Development      Course                1   \n",
       "4         887          1         Development      Course                0   \n",
       "...       ...        ...                 ...         ...              ...   \n",
       "35995     938        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35996     939        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35997     940        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35998     941        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "35999     942        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "\n",
       "       Public_Holiday  Long_Promotion  Competition_Metric  Week_No  Year_No  \\\n",
       "0                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "1                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "2                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "3                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "4                   0               1               0.007     23.0      3.0   \n",
       "...               ...             ...                 ...      ...      ...   \n",
       "35995               0               1               0.070     30.0      3.0   \n",
       "35996               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "35997               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "35998               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "35999               0               1               0.070     31.0      3.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "       Target_Course_ID  \n",
       "0            104.875000  \n",
       "1            104.875000  \n",
       "2            104.875000  \n",
       "3            104.875000  \n",
       "4             65.000000  \n",
       "...                 ...  \n",
       "35995        149.000000  \n",
       "35996        129.666667  \n",
       "35997        129.666667  \n",
       "35998        129.666667  \n",
       "35999        129.666667  \n",
       "\n",
       "[36000 rows x 11 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 13,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "test.merge(mean_by_course)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Day_No</th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_ID</th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_Domain</th>\n",
       "      <th>Course_Type</th>\n",
       "      <th>Short_Promotion</th>\n",
       "      <th>Public_Holiday</th>\n",
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       "      <th>Competition_Metric</th>\n",
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       "      <td>13650</td>\n",
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       "      <td>11655</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.007</td>\n",
       "      <td>75</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>4</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Development</td>\n",
       "      <td>Course</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>12054</td>\n",
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       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
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       "      <th>...</th>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>512082</th>\n",
       "      <td>878</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>8904</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>114</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>512083</th>\n",
       "      <td>879</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>10542</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>145</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>512084</th>\n",
       "      <td>880</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>13671</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>167</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>512085</th>\n",
       "      <td>881</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
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       "      <td>107</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>512086</th>\n",
       "      <td>882</td>\n",
       "      <td>600</td>\n",
       "      <td>Software Marketing</td>\n",
       "      <td>Program</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>11445</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.070</td>\n",
       "      <td>152</td>\n",
       "      <td>22.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>512087 rows × 12 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "        Day_No  Course_ID       Course_Domain Course_Type  Short_Promotion  \\\n",
       "0            1          1         Development      Course                0   \n",
       "1            2          1         Development      Course                0   \n",
       "2            3          1         Development      Course                0   \n",
       "3            4          1         Development      Course                0   \n",
       "4            5          1         Development      Course                0   \n",
       "...        ...        ...                 ...         ...              ...   \n",
       "512082     878        600  Software Marketing     Program                0   \n",
       "512083     879        600  Software Marketing     Program                0   \n",
       "512084     880        600  Software Marketing     Program                0   \n",
       "512085     881        600  Software Marketing     Program                0   \n",
       "512086     882        600  Software Marketing     Program                1   \n",
       "\n",
       "        Public_Holiday  Long_Promotion  User_Traffic  Competition_Metric  \\\n",
       "0                    1               1         11004               0.007   \n",
       "1                    0               1         13650               0.007   \n",
       "2                    0               1         11655               0.007   \n",
       "3                    0               1         12054               0.007   \n",
       "4                    0               1          6804               0.007   \n",
       "...                ...             ...           ...                 ...   \n",
       "512082               0               1          8904               0.070   \n",
       "512083               0               1         10542               0.070   \n",
       "512084               0               1         13671               0.070   \n",
       "512085               0               1          8904               0.070   \n",
       "512086               0               1         11445               0.070   \n",
       "\n",
       "        Sales  Week_No  Year_No  \n",
       "0          81      1.0      1.0  \n",
       "1          79      1.0      1.0  \n",
       "2          75      1.0      1.0  \n",
       "3          80      1.0      1.0  \n",
       "4          41      1.0      1.0  \n",
       "...       ...      ...      ...  \n",
       "512082    114     22.0      3.0  \n",
       "512083    145     22.0      3.0  \n",
       "512084    167     22.0      3.0  \n",
       "512085    107     22.0      3.0  \n",
       "512086    152     22.0      3.0  \n",
       "\n",
       "[512087 rows x 12 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 14,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "train"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "export_submission(test.merge(mean_by_course)[\"Target_Course_ID\"],\"Mean_by_Course_ID_Week_No_Short_Promo\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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