[CI] ForecastIT testOverflowToDisk failing

[ldematte]

Build scan:
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/s/sfziduauewjow/tests/:x-pack:plugin:ml:qa:native-multi-node-tests:javaRestTest/org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.ForecastIT/testOverflowToDisk

Reproduction line:

./gradlew ':x-pack:plugin:ml:qa:native-multi-node-tests:javaRestTest' --tests "org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.ForecastIT.testOverflowToDisk" -Dtests.seed=1B14F511EDCCC252 -Dtests.locale=pl-PL -Dtests.timezone=GB -Druntime.java=21

Applicable branches:
main, 7.17

Reproduces locally?:
Didn't try

Failure history:
Failure dashboard for org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.ForecastIT#testOverflowToDisk

Failure excerpt:

java.lang.AssertionError: 
Expected: one of {<finished>}
     but: was <scheduled>

  at __randomizedtesting.SeedInfo.seed([1B14F511EDCCC252:54C44B4B84B2CBE2]:0)
  at org.hamcrest.MatcherAssert.assertThat(MatcherAssert.java:18)
  at org.hamcrest.MatcherAssert.assertThat(MatcherAssert.java:6)
  at org.elasticsearch.test.ESTestCase.assertThat(ESTestCase.java:2150)
  at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.MlNativeAutodetectIntegTestCase.lambda$waitForecastStatus$1(MlNativeAutodetectIntegTestCase.java:266)
  at org.elasticsearch.test.ESTestCase.assertBusy(ESTestCase.java:1277)
  at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.MlNativeAutodetectIntegTestCase.waitForecastStatus(MlNativeAutodetectIntegTestCase.java:263)
  at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.MlNativeAutodetectIntegTestCase.waitForecastToFinish(MlNativeAutodetectIntegTestCase.java:249)
  at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.integration.ForecastIT.testOverflowToDisk(ForecastIT.java:248)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.DirectMethodHandleAccessor.invoke(DirectMethodHandleAccessor.java:103)
  at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:580)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.invoke(RandomizedRunner.java:1758)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$8.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:946)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$9.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:982)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$10.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:996)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.junit.rules.RunRules.evaluate(RunRules.java:20)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleSetupTeardownChained$1.evaluate(TestRuleSetupTeardownChained.java:48)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleThreadAndTestName$1.evaluate(TestRuleThreadAndTestName.java:45)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:60)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:44)
  at org.junit.rules.RunRules.evaluate(RunRules.java:20)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:390)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.forkTimeoutingTask(ThreadLeakControl.java:843)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$3.evaluate(ThreadLeakControl.java:490)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.runSingleTest(RandomizedRunner.java:955)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$5.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:840)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$6.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:891)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$7.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:902)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleStoreClassName$1.evaluate(TestRuleStoreClassName.java:38)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleAssertionsRequired$1.evaluate(TestRuleAssertionsRequired.java:53)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:44)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:60)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites.java:47)
  at org.junit.rules.RunRules.evaluate(RunRules.java:20)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:390)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.lambda$forkTimeoutingTask$0(ThreadLeakControl.java:850)
  at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:1583)

[elasticsearchmachine]

Pinging @elastic/ml-core (Team:ML)

[davidkyle]

The logs show that the forecast started then was killed a minute later as the wait timed out. The failure is due to the timeout which I've increased in #108183

[forecast-it-test-overflow-to-disk] [autodetect/34159] [CForecastRunner.cc@111] Start forecasting from 2024-04-24T12:00:00+0000 to 2024-04-24T13:00:00+0000
...
[forecast-it-test-overflow-to-disk] Killing job